April 2021 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll never stop having blizzards. Even a place like DCA gets them and they average about 6C warmer than we do in the winter....we'll never reach that warm...prob wouldn't even get halfway there. In addition, New England is in a more geographically favorable location anyway sticking out into the Atlantic.

yeees and no -

Gonna go ahead and partially disagree here with all do respect - 'never' is a long time. Lol, I give you the nod for hyperbole tho.

 - it's a matter of slowly diminishing returns...  IF one means one blizzard every 1/2 ... then 1, ...then 2... then 10 ... 60 years, by the turn of the next century ( or whatever it turns out to be) because of CC ...  okay, they've technically  'never stopped'

But in practical terms:  the frequencies will rarefy.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Didn't they have a record snowy January as well? That sounds like an awesome combo to me, crushing snowfall followed by straight slingshot into heavy heavy spring.

These next several decades will be interesting from a meteorological perspective but probably not good for humanity.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

These next several decades will be interesting from a meteorological perspective but probably not good for humanity.

I think we short change how much we can adapt. We’ll be likely to adapt to a lot of changes as a society in general. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeees and no -

Gonna go ahead and partially disagree here with all do respect - 'never' is a long time. Lol, I give you the nod for hyperbole tho.

 - it's a matter of slowly diminishing returns...  IF one means one blizzard every 1/2 ... then 1, ...then 2... then 10 ... 60 years, by the turn of the next century ( or whatever it turns out to be) because of CC ...  okay, they've technically  'never stopped'

But in practical terms:  the frequencies will rarefy.

Don't disagree that blizzards will likely eventually become rarer down the line at some point, but how much rarer? I don't buy any estimate that is something akin to frequency in, say, current day Philly or DC.

Really the most pessimistic climate models have us warming about 5-6C.....but those aren't exactly realistic scenarios either. They are plausible, but need a lot of assumptions to verify. Those occur in scenarios where we assume that we do stuff like multiply our coal energy output by 6x (despite likely already peaking globally) and basically have zero conversion to zero-emissions energy. It assumes rising emissions to the year 2100 to near 1200ppm CO2.

The more realistic scenarios are something like 2 to 3C.

Maybe BOS becomes more like Cape Cod and ORH becomes more like BOS (though still more favorable geographically with coastal fronts, etc).

[HIPPYVALLEY]

What a day it turned out to be, 62° and sunny.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't disagree that blizzards will likely eventually become rarer down the line at some point, but how much rarer? I don't buy any estimate that is something akin to frequency in, say, current day Philly or DC.

Really the most pessimistic climate models have us warming about 5-6C.....but those aren't exactly realistic scenarios either. They are plausible, but need a lot of assumptions to verify. Those occur in scenarios where we assume that we do stuff like multiply our coal energy output by 6x (despite likely already peaking globally) and basically have zero conversion to zero-emissions energy. It assumes rising emissions to the year 2100 to near 1200ppm CO2.

The more realistic scenarios are something like 2 to 3C.

Maybe BOS becomes more like Cape Cod and ORH becomes more like BOS (though still more favorable geographically with coastal fronts, etc).

Heh...makes me nervous that there are observations in various dimensions of the physical geography, at global and local scales, that were not supposed to be "real"ized until much later - as in 2070 ...etc.  

I don't recall what climate papers/ .. models, and/or consortium of scientist out among the greater ambit for which to cite for the general users of this social-media ...no, but, recall reading that turn of phrase in numerous areas from Coral Bleaching, to ice loss ...and various other observational metrics in between.

So, tfwiw I suppose...  but when you/we say "unrealistic,"  ( and I agree in principle that higher end cataclysms may be as unlikely as the lower end, just the same... ) ..the problem is in the middle sufffix:  "real"

Since there are physical observations that are beating the climate models to the punch ( so to speak ..), I am losing confidence in our notions/judgements of what is and is not realistic vs merely plausible. 

 

[dendrite]

Have basically watched the clearing line remain quasi-stationary just to the west all day. At least it's over 50F now.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What a day it turned out to be, 62° and sunny.

It’s a nice one out there for sure. We take. We enjoy. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Have basically watched the clearing line remain quasi-stationary just to the west all day. At least it's over 50F now.

Sunny over here but wow has it been windy all day at the ski area.  Impressive gusts of 40+ rolling through at times at 1500ft.  Even MVL has been consistently around 30mph for gusts and sustained 15-20.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sunny over here but wow has it been windy all day at the ski area.  Impressive gusts of 40+ rolling through at times at 1500ft.  Even MVL has been consistently around 30mph for gusts and sustained 15-20.

Meanwhile it's 31F with snow in Pittsburg.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Meanwhile it's 31F with snow in Pittsburg.

Oh... heh Pittsburg NH

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Do they really have records back that far????

Heck of data set...

 

[George001]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...makes me nervous that there are observations in various dimensions of the physical geography observable at global and local scales, that were not supposed to be "real"ized until much later - as in 2070 ...etc.  

I don't recall what climate papers/ .. models, and/or consortium of scientist out among the greater ambit for which to cite for the general users of this social-media ...no, but, recall reading that turn of phrase in numerous areas from Coral Bleaching, to ice loss ...and various other observational metrics in between.

So, tfwiw I suppose...  but when you/we say "unrealistic,"  ( and I agree in principle that higher end cataclysms may be as unlikely as the lower end, just the same... ) ..the problem is in the middle sufffix:  "real"

Since there are physical observations that are beating the climate models to the punch ( so to speak ..), I am losing confidence in our notions/judgements of what is and is not realistic vs merely plausible. 

 

Based on what I have seen in my own backyard over the past 10 years, the higher end climate change projections could very much be underestimating the speed of climate change. I’m not the most knowledgeable about meteorology but looking at the data of our monthly temps with respect to average over the past 10 years something seems off. We have had 6 straight winters with above average temps, with temps soaring into the high 70s as early as mid to late feb multiple times in the past couple of years (this year it waited until early-mid March). I have never seen anything like it until a few years ago, yet since I first saw it a few years ago it seems that we have been getting a stretch of mid-high 70s every winter. To me that is a red flag that indicates that climate change is not only happening, but accelerating rapidly. Hopefully as a society we decide to look at climate change at something that is imminent and one of the greatest threats to mankind, not something to put on the backburner in favor of other issues. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we short change how much we can adapt. We’ll be likely to adapt to a lot of changes as a society in general. 

Agree. We survived 100,000 years of ice age with primitive technology. The area we live in now was under a mile of ice 15,000 years ago. I think we'll manage.

[Lava Rock]

Wet sn. 37.9F

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meanwhile it's 31F with snow in Pittsburg.

Yeah looks like Phin and Alex seeing snow too. I’d think it’s a good flow for that northern slope of the Presis.

Crazy, I’m going to walk the dog in a hoody when I get home probably, ha.  

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wet sn. 37.9F

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Fire it up!  Braaaaaaap!

 

[KoalaBeer]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh... heh Pittsburg NH

Top of wildcat looks fun. Cannon webcam looks pretty boring though 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Wet sn. 37.9F

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Winter saved?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s a nice one out there for sure. We take. We enjoy. 

Glad we WNE. 

[Lava Rock]

Winter saved?

Still a D-

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we short change how much we can adapt. We’ll be likely to adapt to a lot of changes as a society in general. 

I'm interested to see what our technology can do against it. 

Bc even though we've seen more significant natural disasters (to some extent) the loss of life has decreased significantly. 

Maybe we could eventually reverse emissions to where the warming levels out at 2-3C or less, which while still major wouldn't result in catastrophic climate change.

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Glad we WNE. 

The wind here is kinda wrecking it

[NorEastermass128]

44F dropping and steady light rain. 

[Torch Tiger]

Not a bad day in the 50's.  Take

[Damage In Tolland]

What a day other than the 35mph winds. 60 and cloudless. We tan 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a day other than the 35mph winds. 60 and cloudless. We tan 

Yeah, a little windy out there but nice warm sun.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Heck of data set...

 

The planet is warming quickly?  Or nothing has changed in 1200 years?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The wind here is kinda wrecking it

The wind never stops blowing anymore. You are up higher than the Pioneer Valley so  obviously it was less of a bummer here but I still need to recover one of my tarps from the neighbors yard.  Regardless, it is warm and wonderful in the sun here despite the stiff breeze. 

[Torch Tiger]

Not a drop of rain on the NWS p&c 7-day.