April 2021 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Just saw one of these gals doing helicopter recon outside my living room window..

[TalcottWx]

Opening day looks fine now? 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Almost no green up here yet outside of some lawns and some random crocus etc. 

Tulips are up and not far from flowering, lilacs have little almost bloom green leaves on them , lawns are quickly greening .. magnolias have blossoms.. there’s a ton of stuff growing well ahead of schedule . At 1k that’s pretty significant for late Morch. The valley is even farther along . They’ll have to mow within 2 weeks with the overall mild pattern continuing 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Opening day looks fine now? 

Meh... looks cloudy/misty-mild ahead of sharp cold front punching east through the afternoon.  who's to know precisely when that passes through Boston ... probably 20 Z

Looks like 57/54 with total cloud with passing light rains sprizters ... then, 46 F with a gusts 40 mph out of nowhere ... 38 F by 7 or 8 oclock and a Fenway Park stadium left only occupied by the distant murmur of a city outside it's confines ... as though any human presence couldn't wait to get the hell outta there when those conditions kicked in...

Take me out to the ball-game 

[George001]

At this point the winter of 2021 is long gone, it was looking like a near lock for 60-70+ totals in the Boston area then, but due to a combination of bad luck and a worse than expected pattern for late Feb to March, winter ended early which resulted in what looked to be a promising winter turning into a avg-slightly below avg one. However I still stand by my take that we were extremely unlucky and with the type of pattern we were in 9/10 times we get a 50-60+ inch winter in the Boston area. Unfortunately it appears that things right now are trending in the wrong direction for next winter with the rapid warming of the subsurface indicating that the La Niña will likely continue to weaken, and turn into an El Niño for the summer. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean we will get a ratter (if we do get a nino and it stays weak that’s actually a good thing), but with how rapid the subsurface warming combined with the historical trend of the winters following mod/strong enso ninas also being mid/strong ensos (sometimes 2nd year Nina, sometimes nino), that is a signal for a stronger event. It’s still VERY early, but its something that I’m keeping an eye on before I make my winter 2022 forecast in November. If this does become an El Niño, the key will be how strong does it get, which isn’t something that is clear right now. If it’s weak, anything from a big winter to ratter is on the table with it being a signal to lean above avg (of course other factors need to be taken into account as well). If the nino is moderate+ however, in my opinion that is a strong signal for below average snow in the southern New England region and will be weighted more heavily in my forecast as strong Enso events tend to dominate the pattern for at least part of the winter. 

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Opening day looks fine now? 

Looks wet?

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tulips are up and not far from flowering, lilacs have little almost bloom green leaves on them , lawns are quickly greening .. magnolias have blossoms.. there’s a ton of stuff growing well ahead of schedule . At 1k that’s pretty significant for late Morch. The valley is even farther along . They’ll have to mow within 2 weeks with the overall mild pattern continuing 

Granted I get a lot of sun, but we growing. I will say my locale is probably a bit of a microclimate because I don't radiate much. Go south of here where it's more rural and they radiate...doesn't look much is coming up. My folks always comment how much ahead of schedule we are compared to them. But we take that in the Spring. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS shat on itself next week.

[TalcottWx]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks wet?

I thought it was mostly morning. College friend visiting from Baltimore. Has extra ticket for Me.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just saw one of these gals doing helicopter recon outside my living room window..

Maybe you can get her number....she’s probably a horny lil hornet after the long winter. 

[dendrite]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Maybe you can get her number....she’s probably a horny lil hornet after the long winter. 

Jodi Arias hornet right there.

[Lava Rock]

47 minutes ago, George001 said:

At this point the winter of 2021 is long gone, it was looking like a near lock for 60-70+ totals in the Boston area then, but due to a combination of bad luck and a worse than expected pattern for late Feb to March, winter ended early which resulted in what looked to be a promising winter turning into a avg-slightly below avg one. However I still stand by my take that we were extremely unlucky and with the type of pattern we were in 9/10 times we get a 50-60+ inch winter in the Boston area. Unfortunately it appears that things right now are trending in the wrong direction for next winter with the rapid warming of the subsurface indicating that the La Niña will likely continue to weaken, and turn into an El Niño for the summer. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean we will get a ratter (if we do get a nino and it stays weak that’s actually a good thing), but with how rapid the subsurface warming combined with the historical trend of the winters following mod/strong enso ninas also being mid/strong ensos (sometimes 2nd year Nina, sometimes nino), that is a signal for a stronger event. It’s still VERY early, but its something that I’m keeping an eye on before I make my winter 2022 forecast in November. If this does become an El Niño, the key will be how strong does it get, which isn’t something that is clear right now. If it’s weak, anything from a big winter to ratter is on the table with it being a signal to lean above avg (of course other factors need to be taken into account as well). If the nino is moderate+ however, in my opinion that is a strong signal for below average snow in the southern New England region and will be weighted more heavily in my forecast as strong Enso events tend to dominate the pattern for at least part of the winter. 

But you said only 2wks ago we were in for three blizzards. Next winter's looking bad already? C'mon man, take a break

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

But you said only 2wks ago we were in for three blizzards. Next winter's looking bad already? C'mon man, take a break

Ya he’s off his rocker...lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS shat on itself next week.

Yep, tried to give us a nice week for days and now it's showing plenty of 'rhea like the Euro now.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tulips are up and not far from flowering, lilacs have little almost bloom green leaves on them , lawns are quickly greening .. magnolias have blossoms.. there’s a ton of stuff growing well ahead of schedule . At 1k that’s pretty significant for late Morch. The valley is even farther along . They’ll have to mow within 2 weeks with the overall mild pattern continuing 

Tolland to Greenfield is probably a different growing zone though.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Tolland to Greenfield is probably a different growing zone though.

Only difference is you get earlier and later frosts 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Only difference is you get earlier and later frosts 

Radiators

[Typhoon Tip]

Not seeing the same thing as the Euro frankly -

And that doesn't have quite the same multi-day constraining drab misery to it either... 24 hours of pivot passed and we COL the column under April sun with 554 dm thickness?

I'll take that... 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tulips are up and not far from flowering, lilacs have little almost bloom green leaves on them , lawns are quickly greening .. magnolias have blossoms.. there’s a ton of stuff growing well ahead of schedule . At 1k that’s pretty significant for late Morch. The valley is even farther along . They’ll have to mow within 2 weeks with the overall mild pattern continuing 

Amazing how different it is here hmmm. Out of at least a 100 trees I see looking out my window I can see 2 that are budding.. Everything still looks dead.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Of course ...what are we talking about tho -

My biggest fear is not having to suffer a protracted persistent week(s) long April imprisonment scenario...  I'm just sayn' this GFS run doesn't appeal that bad.

That's the southern end of the trough bumping into the -NAO blocking and pinching off...  then it pivots south. It's an extra day .. day and half, then we're out. I call that more normal spring butt boning as opposed to the Turkish prison scenario of 1987 ... or May 2005. All this 12z run did was take away one of the days in the positive column and gave it back to the neg -

Besides, if the trough comes along as a little attenuation in mechanical strength it may not close off so deeply either -

I mean we're getting the NAO .. I'm just wondering who much it really ends up more west or east in nature.  Obviously that would have big impacts as to how the local eddy behaves - 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Amazing how different it is here hmmm. Out of at least a 100 trees I see looking out my window I can see 2 that are budding.. Everything still looks dead.. 

Every species is different....you may be looking out the window at a lot of oaks...which don’t show any sign of budding until much later...? 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not seeing the same thing as the Euro frankly -

And that doesn't have quite the same multi-day constraining drab misery to it either... 24 hours of pivot passed and we COL the column under April sun with 554 dm thickness?

I'll take that... 

I think I saw one day next week that was decent. Wednesday maybe?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I saw one day next week that was decent. Wednesday maybe?

I think of next week as very negotiable after that 'pivot low' moves SE and seaward.   Yeah ...that opens up Wed to nape perhaps... but anything after that isn't confident enough one way or the other to really 86 the week and so I wasn't really even thinking about it - not really taking a 222 hour chart seriously any April.

GGEM looks better and more continental flow oriented fwi-not-w ... 

Fwi-also-not-w, the GEFs mean indicates the operational is depthty/west outlier for that closed thing.

[MJO812]

Any more snow ?

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Any more snow ?

Snow grows in Brooklyn?

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Opening day looks fine now? 

I remember opening day 1972-Sox/Yankees.   Temps in the mid 30s with thickening clouds and 3 inches of snow that night.   But the game got in while it was dry.   I couldn’t move my limbs for awhile after sitting there and I was in my 20s.  Boston won 2-1 but it was bullshit.  I was sitting in the grandstand behind the plate and Horace Clarke was definitely safe trying to score the tying run.

[Torch Tiger]

Euro is pretty crappy through D9, but I've seen worse. The wheel should keep any truly nice weather way SW of us for a while.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember opening day 1972-Sox/Yankees.   Temps in the mid 30s with thickening clouds and 3 inches of snow that night.   But the game got in while it was dry.   I couldn’t move my limbs for awhile after sitting there and I was in my 20s.  Boston won 2-1 but it was bullshit.  I was sitting in the grandstand behind the plate and Horace Clarke was definitely safe trying to score the tying run.

1976 got snowed out. I was laying in a hospital bed in Boston sox looking forward to watching the game.

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember opening day 1972-Sox/Yankees.   Temps in the mid 30s with thickening clouds and 3 inches of snow that night.   But the game got in while it was dry.   I couldn’t move my limbs for awhile after sitting there and I was in my 20s.  Boston won 2-1 but it was bullshit.  I was sitting in the grandstand behind the plate and Horace Clarke was definitely safe trying to score the tying run.

I believe  you are thinking of another season . The 1972 season was delayed because of the players strike. The Sox opened the season with a loss in Detroit  and it turned out to be a crucial loss because the Sox  finished 1/2 game behind the Tigers that  season. I recall the announcers lamenting the opening day loss to the Tigers at the end of the last game of the 72 season.....that season has always stuck with me because the Sox missed  out on  going to the ALCS by 1/2 game.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

At this point the winter of 2021 is long gone, it was looking like a near lock for 60-70+ totals in the Boston area then, but due to a combination of bad luck and a worse than expected pattern for late Feb to March, winter ended early which resulted in what looked to be a promising winter turning into a avg-slightly below avg one. However I still stand by my take that we were extremely unlucky and with the type of pattern we were in 9/10 times we get a 50-60+ inch winter in the Boston area. Unfortunately it appears that things right now are trending in the wrong direction for next winter with the rapid warming of the subsurface indicating that the La Niña will likely continue to weaken, and turn into an El Niño for the summer. Now this doesn’t necessarily mean we will get a ratter (if we do get a nino and it stays weak that’s actually a good thing), but with how rapid the subsurface warming combined with the historical trend of the winters following mod/strong enso ninas also being mid/strong ensos (sometimes 2nd year Nina, sometimes nino), that is a signal for a stronger event. It’s still VERY early, but its something that I’m keeping an eye on before I make my winter 2022 forecast in November. If this does become an El Niño, the key will be how strong does it get, which isn’t something that is clear right now. If it’s weak, anything from a big winter to ratter is on the table with it being a signal to lean above avg (of course other factors need to be taken into account as well). If the nino is moderate+ however, in my opinion that is a strong signal for below average snow in the southern New England region and will be weighted more heavily in my forecast as strong Enso events tend to dominate the pattern for at least part of the winter. 

Uhhmmm I signed up for The Blizzard Protection Plan....as proof of non delivery I have attached a photo.......when can I expect my refund??? Thank you for your attention to this matter...