April 2021

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe JFK will hit 70?  These are my favorite kinds of days.

 

Yeah, JFK can have some of the warmest area temperatures on dry offshore flow days. JFK and EWR both made it to 70°. Our area was far enough SW of the storm east of New England. Looks like the blocking ridge should keep most rain west of the area this week. Then it appears that the ridge eventually weakens by the weekend allowing better rain chances. 

 

[psv88]

70 today out in Suffolk. But breezy as always in April 

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

70 today out in Suffolk. But breezy as always in April 

Yes-gorgeous even with the windy conditions. 

[Cfa]

71/45 split here. Clear skies. Perfect April day.

[donsutherland1]

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 60s and even the lower 70s in some parts of the region. Tomorrow will be a similar day.

Meanwhile, excessive warmth will shift into northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from Wednesday through Saturday.

In the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, temperatures will likely top out in the 60s through Thursday. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case despite the current strong cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +12.76 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.454 today.

On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.501 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.477 (RMM).

 

[uncle W]

a warmer than normal April could be derailed if the ao/nao forecast is right...it could be coupled with a big pna rise...I would not be surprised if NYC ends up close to average for April with another possible near recold outbreak similar to last May but not to that extreme...

[SACRUS]

37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a warmer than normal April could be derailed if the ao/nao forecast is right...it could be coupled with a big pna rise...I would not be surprised if NYC ends up close to average for April with another possible near recold outbreak similar to last May but not to that extreme...

I agree 4/9 - 4/21 looks cool with onshore flow issues and then perhaps a arctic shot towards 4/18.  I do think we see a sharp rebound the end of of April and some hear may be in store the closing week.

[Rtd208]

The GFS is making things wetter for the upcoming weekend. We'll see what the other models show. 

[wdrag]

Continued no thread on my part. I haven't examined closely enough, tho it appears the snow threat for higher elevations this weekend has diminished? However, not giving it up yet. It does appears NJ westward is in line for 1"+ qpf by 2A Monday.  Will have to monitor for wind increase but right now, nor'easter wind not a problem for this weekend.  ICON/NAVGEM not supportive for bountiful qpf, so that's a consideration.  I like EPS/GEFS trends since posting on Sunday for QPF.  WPC has been up and down and still looks down to me but a little better. 

The mid April elevation snow chance is still in the ensembles but almost negligible so I guess we're in for cooler wetter weather periods from the 9th-20th.  In a way, I like it.. more typical April stuff and I don't want to be begging for rain come June.  Just good to ante up the water tables a bit. 

Back in a day or 2.  

[uncle W]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

I agree 4/9 - 4/21 looks cool with onshore flow issues and then perhaps a arctic shot towards 4/18.  I do think we see a sharp rebound the end of of April and some hear may be in store the closing week.

many Aprils ended up very warm after a cold beginning...1915 is the best example with 10" of snow on the 2nd and 91 degrees near the end of the month...yesterday was a great day although a little windy...today looks good too...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(49/58), or +3.0.       The narrow range must be due to the upcoming cloud cover 4/10-15.

 81 on the 13th. is now 53.      All models with 2"-3" between the 10th-15th.

Fell short of 70 yesterday with 69*.

48*(42%RH) here at 6am.       50* by 9am.    52*(34%RH) at 10am.         57*(27%RH) by Noon.        61*(25%RH) by 2pm.         67*(22%RH) at 4pm.        68* at 4:15pm.         70*(22%RH) at 5pm.        71*(21%RH) at 5:45pm.       62*(25%RH) by 11pm.

[bluewave]

Next several days look warm and dry with highs making another run on 70° today.Then it appears that the high over the region providing the dry and warm conditions will shift east by Friday.  So more of a backdoor onshore flow developing. Main question is where the front will stall out. That will determine where the best rainfall potential sets up.

Dry  and warm N to NW flow next several days

 

High moves east by Friday allowing more onshore flow with a backdoor nearby

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 71°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued warm. The latter part of the week will turn somewhat cooler with readings mainly in the upper 50s and some lower 60s.

[LoboLeader1]

43 here in HPN, RH @ 48%. 

 White Plains Weather Alert: Special Weather Statement until Tuesday Apr 6th, 8:00pm: There is an enhanced potential for brush fire spread from late this morning into early evening. This is due to the recent dry conditions, relative humidity levels dropping to mostly 15 to 30

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, JFK can have some of the warmest area temperatures on dry offshore flow days. JFK and EWR both made it to 70°. Our area was far enough SW of the storm east of New England. Looks like the blocking ridge should keep most rain west of the area this week. Then it appears that the ridge eventually weakens by the weekend allowing better rain chances. 

 

Think we can finally have a dry summer if we have a strong SE Ridge with downsloping winds like this?  SST shouldnt matter if we get a 1995 or 2010 kind of SE Ridge that backs into the coast and gives us a downsloping wind, it will also hold back fronts and weaken them

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

many Aprils ended up very warm after a cold beginning...1915 is the best example with 10" of snow on the 2nd and 91 degrees near the end of the month...yesterday was a great day although a little windy...today looks good too...

20 inches in Philly in April 1915 wow

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, uncle W said:

a warmer than normal April could be derailed if the ao/nao forecast is right...it could be coupled with a big pna rise...I would not be surprised if NYC ends up close to average for April with another possible near recold outbreak similar to last May but not to that extreme...

if that kind of cold outbreak happens in April instead of May it could be colder even if not as extreme

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, FPizz said:

Funny thing, I was in the Jacksonville area on vacation.  Those were some cool mornings!  It felt like here, haha.  I did manage to have 2 80+ days down there though last week.  

cold in the morning but hot by afternoon lol

 

[bluewave]

The relative humidity is running under the current model forecasts. The HRRR has the RH levels dropping to 10-15% in some spots this afternoon. So it will be interesting to see if any stations can record a rare single digit relative humidity reading.

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

cold in the morning but hot by afternoon lol

 

Those cold mornings there only got to the low 60s.  So similar to here the past few days.  

[Rtd208]

Another winner out there today.

Current temp 68

[Dark Star]

On 4/4/2021 at 11:09 PM, MJO812 said:

Thanks for the data.   Loosely, I would say the lake effect snow machine was NOT in full swing this season.  

[bluewave]

First time the relative humidity at Newark dropped under 10% since 2012.

Newark Liberty SUNNY     69   8   9

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2021&var=min_rh&dir=below&thres=0&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[uofmiami]

Was 11% at my station in Muttontown I saw.  I'll check later to see if it dropped below 10% at one point.

[Stormlover74]

6% at ewr now. Lowest I think I've seen

[CIK62]

NEWARK AT 4PM:

MOST RECENT DATA:  4pm edt    6-APR-21
NEWARK INTL ARPT, NJ (   30')                        LAT=40.70N LON= 74.17W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
EWR 11am 59 18 20 360 11    154 2999                       250 SCT    10
    12pm 63 15 15 310 12    145 2996                           CLR    10
    1220 63 13 14 320 10 19     2995                       250 SCT    10
     1pm 65 13 13 310 10 21 138 2994                       250 SCT    10
     2pm 68 10 10 300 14 19 129 2991                       250 SCT    10
     3pm 69  8  9 300  9 21 121 2989                           CLR    10
     4pm 71  3  6 310 14 24 116 2988                       250 SCT    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  71 at  4pm low=  59 at 11am mean=  65.8   precip=  0.0

[bluewave]

I believe the all-time lowest relative humidity at Newark is 5% on 3-30-07

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   71   3   7 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2007-3-30

5:51 PM

68 F

-5 F

5 %

[weathermedic]

10% and DP of 10 at my station in Sheepshead Bay 

[Juliancolton]

Not as dry up this way - just a beautiful but unremarkable 64/32F.

[bluewave]

Ridiculous AO and NAO volatility since February.