April 2021

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair with readings in the lower and middle 60s in the Middle Atlantic region. It will become noticeably warmer on Tuesday.

April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast.

This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

Meanwhile, after a brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest early this week, an area of unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -13.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.187 today.

On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.814 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.762 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

 

[STORMANLI]

.57"

60°

 

On 4/16/2021 at 7:55 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

A slowly departing storm was bringing snow and rain to parts of New England. Today will start with partly sunny skies, but clouds could increase during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 56°

Temperatures will gradually increase during the weekend.

 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of April are averaging 62degs.(53/71), or +4.0 

Month to date is 53.5(+1.3).          April should finish at 54.9[+1.9].

After our run at 80 on Wed./Thurs. the T on the May 02 could be lower than this AM.        Peaks remain at 5/04-05  and 5/10.

The first 10 days of May are averaging  65degs.(56/73) about +5 to +6.

42*(54%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.        44* by 9am.         47* by 11am.        49* by Noon.     50 at 1pm.       57*(30%RH) at 3pm.         61*(26%RH) at 5pm.         Reached 62*(26%RH) 6pm-7pm.     56* by 9pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be sunny but cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

[MJO812]

43 here in Brooklyn

 

Beautiful morning

[nycwinter]

nice brisk morning in the city  might be the last until the fall..

[tek1972]

Looks like the warm up on Wednesday will have a weak backdoor nearby. So the warm spots will probably go above 80°. But there will be 60s and 70s to the east with the onshore flow.
 

There were hints of this last week on the models


Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[forkyfork]

overall warmer but cold shots with a stubborn 50/50 low is the trend on the new 500mb normals 

[psv88]

So sick of this wind already, we cant string together a stretch of nice days at all

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

So sick of this wind already, we cant string together a stretch of nice days at all

Swings in barometric pressure as storms and high pressure systems swung through the Northeast led to 16 days with one or more Rutgers NJ Weather Network stations gusting to 40 mph or higher, with 11 of those days exceeding 50 mph.

https://www.njweather.org/content/wind-doth-blow-march-2021-recap

[Rtd208]

A late daytime high of 61 here after being in the mid/upper 50's most of the day.

[gravitylover]

It has been a very windy spring for sure. I'm afraid of what the fire danger could look like when it finally warms up if we don't get a few significant storms. Right now, other than this years new growth, everything is tinder dry. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It has been a very windy spring for sure. I'm afraid of what the fire danger could look like when it finally warms up if we don't get a few significant storms. Right now, other than this years new growth, everything is tinder dry. 

alot of clear sunny days too.   We have yet to get a week of overcast/mist on the wrong side of a Back door front or a cut off low.....

[LoboLeader1]

High of 59 here today, currently 54 under a clear sky.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer. The temperature will soar well into the 60s across much of the region.

April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tomorrow and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast.

This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

Meanwhile, after a brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest early this week, an area of unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +4.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.313 today.

On April 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.078 (RMM). The April 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.814 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[TriPol]

Looks like tonight is going to be the coldest night for NYC in a while. Don't see any low 40s for a while, give or take one or two cold shots in May.

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of April are averaging 66degs.(55/76), or +8.0.

Month to date is  53.4[+1.0].          April should end at  55.1[+2.1].        Tomorrow looks like 80 to 82 if seabreeze does not interfere too soon.

The first 10 days of May are averaging 66 degs.(55/77), or about +5.0.     May 05 still near 90.       Every day is 70+ except May 01.

50*(34%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast.       52* by 9am.       55* by Noon.       57* by 3pm, as T struggles with S breeze, despite full sun.        60* at 4pm.     Reached 61* at 5pm-6pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region to lower and middle 70s around Philadelphia. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 76°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Away from the immediate coastline, many areas will see the temperature reach 80° or above.

[ILoveWinter]

Frustratingly cloudy day so far in the NYC metro. Seems like a streamer of clouds originating in north central PA that has been making a bee line to this area.

[gravitylover]

It's turning into a really nice day. 60/34/WSW5/CLR Of course I have to spend most of the day driving people around 

[LoboLeader1]

Partly sunny here as clouds are beginning to dissipate. Currently 57 as of noon time.

[Cfa]

Half clear, half cloudy, temp is 60.

[FPizz]

Full sun, 72 here.  Beautiful

[Rtd208]

Temp has stayed a bit cooler then forecast so far today.

Current temp 61 

[doncat]

East wind today 61° high...sw wind tomorrow 80's.

[weathermedic]

58 for the high at my station in Sheepshead Bay with the SE/ESE wind and late sun.

[STORMANLI]

64°

[donsutherland1]

This afternoon the temperature soared to 87° in Chicago, which tied the daily record set in 1986. That warmth offers a glimpse of the warmth that will likely prevail in the Middle Atlantic region tomorrow.

Since 1990, there were 11 prior days on which the temperature reached 85° or above in Chicago during the second half of April. In 64% of the cases, New York City registered a high temperature of 80° or above the following day. In 82% of the cases, Philadelphia saw the temperature reach or exceed 80°. The mean temperature the day after Chicago reached 85° or above was 80.9° in New York City and 85.4° in Philadelphia.

Even as the remainder of the week will be somewhat cooler, April is closing with above to much above normal temperatures. This outcome is consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

Meanwhile, following the brief period of unseasonably cool weather in the Desert Southwest, unseasonable warmth will develop late this week into the coming weekend in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures on Friday or Saturday.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +5.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.538 today.

On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.511 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.078 (RMM).

Today's amplitude at Phase 7 was the highest such amplitude in April since April 4, 1988 when the amplitude was 2.626. It is also the sixth highest amplitude on record for Phase 7 during April.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

64°

64.5 on my station 

[forkyfork]

more wind. lol