April 2021

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, tek1972 said:

I don't know. To my untrained eye, this has back door implications :/

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

The forecast will come down to what happens with the low pressure system on Sunday.  The EPS keeps it going far enough to our east so that we get into a deep SW flow at the end of the month. The OP Euro cuts it off east of New England with more of an onshore influence. If we can can get into a strong SW flow, then 80s will be possible. 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 69 here.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

At 7:40 am, the late-season storm that brought daily record snowfall to many parts of the Midwest was bringing snow to Buffalo. Already, amounts in excess were being reported in the greater Buffalo area. As that storm tracks into Quebec, it will drag a strong cold front across the region. Passage of that front could be marked by a squall line with strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and even some hail.

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 50s.

How is it that Kansas City averages less snow than us during the winter but is more likely to get more snow than us now?

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

06z Gfs is now downright summery late April into May.

Shows mid to upper 80s multiple days.

it goes with the NWS forecasts for a hot May

 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature at Philadelphia has fallen from 72 degrees at 1 pm to 58 degrees at 2 pm during a thunderstorm. The temperature will likely fall sharply in New York City once the cold front moves through.

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature at Philadelphia has fallen from 72 degrees at 1 pm to 58 degrees at 2 pm during a thunderstorm. The temperature will likely fall sharply in New York City once the cold front moves through.

Went from 65 to 44 here in the last hour.

[JustinRP37]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it that Kansas City averages less snow than us during the winter but is more likely to get more snow than us now?

 

The lack of an ocean nearby. Any inland climate is able to have larger fluctuations than we are. The midwest is infamous for huge temperature swings. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

The lack of an ocean nearby. Any inland climate is able to have larger fluctuations than we are. The midwest is infamous for huge temperature swings. 

I was wondering if it would be possible to get that kind of snow here this late in the season with a direct shot of arctic shot here instead of having one go to the west and then come here later on.  But those have become so rare that it might be a once in 30 year event now.

 

[SnoSki14]

It went from early May to mid March. 69F to 53F currently and cloudy/gusty.

[JustinRP37]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was wondering if it would be possible to get that kind of snow here this late in the season with a direct shot of arctic shot here instead of having one go to the west and then come here later on.  But those have become so rare that it might be a once in 30 year event now.

 

It would be very hard (but not impossible) here because of our geography too. Unless that cold is coming directly from the north, but even then we would probably also see some moderation from the Great Lakes to the west and warmer Atlantic waters to the east. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It would be very hard (but not impossible) here because of our geography too. Unless that cold is coming directly from the north, but even then we would probably also see some moderation from the Great Lakes to the west and warmer Atlantic waters to the east. 

right, it would probably have to be April 1982 like cold, which I don't even know if it's possible anymore that late in the season.  But with how severe that cold was, even if that had happened a month later, it would have probably snowed.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it that Kansas City averages less snow than us during the winter but is more likely to get more snow than us now?

 

New York City’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean moderates its temperatures, but provides additional moisture for snowfall. As a result, even as New York City has slightly fewer measurable snow events each year than Kansas City does, its events are bigger and its snowfall average is greater. On account of the larger temperature extremes, Kansas City can see earlier or later snowfalls than New York City.

Frequency of First Measurable Snowfall before November 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 6 cases

New York City: 1 case

Frequency of Last Measurable Snowfall on or after April 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 9 cases

New York City: 5 cases

Days per Year for Select Snowfall Amounts (1991-2020):

Kansas City:  Measurable: 13.8; 2” or more: 2.8; 4” or more: 1.0; 6” or more: 0.5

New York City: Measurable: 11.4; 2” or more: 4.7; 4” or more: 2.8; 6” or more: 1.4

Total Days with 10” or More Snowfall (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 1

New York City: 11

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean moderates its temperatures, but provides additional moisture for snowfall. As a result, even as New York City has slightly fewer measurable snow events each year than Kansas City does, its events are bigger and its snowfall average is greater. On account of the larger temperature extremes, Kansas City can see earlier or later snowfalls than New York City.

Frequency of First Measurable Snowfall before November 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 6 cases

New York City: 1 case

Frequency of Last Measurable Snowfall on or after April 1 (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 9 cases

New York City: 5 cases

Days per Year for Select Snowfall Amounts (1991-2020):

Kansas City:  Measurable: 13.8; 2” or more: 2.8; 4” or more: 1.0; 6” or more: 0.5

New York City: Measurable: 11.4; 2” or more: 4.7; 4” or more: 2.8; 6” or more: 1.4

Total Days with 10” or More Snowfall (1991-2020):

Kansas City: 1

New York City: 11

that makes for an interesting experiment in different blocking scenarios and different times of the season I always thought KC-NYC and CHI-BOS comparisons were worthwhile since they seem to have similar snowfall averages.

The most stark difference is in 10" or more storm totals, wow!

 

 

[CIK62]

Hey!!!   Be the first on your block to have your thermometer read a 90+ this year.     Stick it in Central Park.      850mb T soars to 18C. and falls to 3C thereafter.    Meanwhile the CMC has lost its 80's from later this month after two days of showing it.     Euro still coolest, by T, that is.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

 

 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Went from 65 to 44 here in the last hour.

68-47 in about 20 minutes but it did hit 72 this morning before the clouds really thickened up so 72 this morning to ?? tonight. Will I see a 40* drop in less than a day? It's down to 40 already. 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

same thing happened last year, but in May

 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday into today, a storm brought daily record snowfall to parts of the Midwest into upstate New York. Accumulations included:

Buffalo: 4.8"
Detroit: 3.5"
Hambden, OH: 8.0"
Indianapolis: 2.0" (biggest April 20th or later snowstorm since May 2, 1897 and 2nd biggest overall)
Kansas City: 3.5" (biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Louisville: 1.8" (only the 3rd measurable snowfall on record on or after April 20th and biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Toledo: 5.2"
Wyandotte, MI: 4.4"

Ohio's Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties saw numerous locations pick up 6" or more of snow.

That storm was responsible for bringing a strong cold front across the region this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures have fallen rapidly.

The temperature will fall well into the 30s in New York City tomorrow morning and may again fall into the upper 30s on Friday morning. This will likely be the last time(s) the temperature falls into the 30s in Central Park until next fall.

April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists.

This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +8.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.256 today.

On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.119 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday into today, a storm brought daily record snowfall to parts of the Midwest into upstate New York. Accumulations included:

Buffalo: 4.8"
Detroit: 3.5"
Hambden, OH: 8.0"
Indianapolis: 2.0" (biggest April 20th or later snowstorm since May 2, 1897 and 2nd biggest overall)
Kansas City: 3.5" (biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Louisville: 1.8" (only the 3rd measurable snowfall on record on or after April 20th and biggest snowstorm April 9th or later)
Toledo: 5.2"
Wyandotte, MI: 4.4"

Ohio's Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties saw numerous locations pick up 6" or more of snow.

That storm was responsible for bringing a strong cold front across the region this afternoon. In its wake, temperatures have fallen rapidly.

The temperature will fall well into the 30s in New York City tomorrow morning and may again fall into the upper 30s on Friday morning. This will likely be the last time(s) the temperature falls into the 30s in Central Park until next fall.

April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists.

This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +8.29 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.256 today.

On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.119 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

Too bad no more 30s like we had last May.  Don, when was the last 30s last year, was it May 10th, and how low did we get in NYC and JFK, 36-38?  I think both had a T of snow too, on Friday and Saturday?

 

 

[Rtd208]

Unreal. Very light snow falling here.

Temp 37

[LoboLeader1]

32 here as of 5AM,  most likely the last time we see the freezing mark until next fall.

[BxEngine]

Flizzard in yonkers.

[IrishRob17]

11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

68-47 in about 20 minutes but it did hit 72 this morning before the clouds really thickened up so 72 this morning to ?? tonight. Will I see a 40* drop in less than a day? It's down to 40 already. 

Yeah, the bulk of that temp drop happened within a half hour. I had a high of 66 at 1:13pm with a low of 36 at 11:23pm. It’s 32 currently. 

[Snowlover11]

from 70 to snow flurries.

[MJO812]

38 here

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(47/68), or about Normal.

Month to date is  53.6[+2.1].         Should be 54.5[+1.5] by the 30th.

Some 80's over the next 10 days looks likely.       Only 0.5" to 1.0" on Sunday from the GFS/EURO and virtually 0" from the CMC which goes into the 80's therafter.     Figure it to cloud up late Sat. and rain to be over by Noon Sun.---then clearing.

36*(59%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.(was 40* at midnight)       37* by 9am.        42* by Noon.        46* by 3pm.      Reached 48* at 4:30pm.

[bluewave]

These brief cool downs have only been able to last a day or two. NYC is +2.1  through the 21st. So temperatures should quickly rebound back to near to above average. The 0z OP Euro joined the EPS and GFS for 80s potential next week.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/22/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29 CLIMO
 X/N  54| 35  66| 47  69| 52  62| 44  66| 45  70| 54  74| 58  78 46 65

 

[gravitylover]

It got down to 30 here on the hill this morning so 72>30 in less than 18 hours. Nice. Rain varied from ..2-.3 yesterday. The wet ground is steaming in the sun now (which is always cool to watch  ) and the light wind is drying it out quickly. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Through 8 am, the low temperature in New York City’s Central Park was 36°. Since 1990, New York City has had a low temperature in the 30s on or after April 22 on just four prior occasions: 2000 (April 27), 2012 (April 28), 2015 (April 25), and 2020 (May 9). The mean date for the last temperature in the 30s during the 1990-2020 timeframe was April 14. 

Today will be variably cloudy, blustery, and cool. An afternoon shower cannot be ruled out. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 52°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and milder. There are growing indications on the guidance that the closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

[SnoSki14]

90F potential in the works given how temps tend to overperform?

I wonder if the early heat is a sign of really hot summer.