April 2021

[FPizz]

43 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Forecast high was 64, hit 67

Stupid clouds moved in too early here ruining it.  Still feels nice outside though.  We did hit the forecast high of 67 briefly.  

[CIK62]

Models really confused with storm and the T's to follow after the 26th.          Rain from storm gone or reduced and T's higher for the 28th/29th.       Just Tripe output.

Meanwhile I am yet to reach 60* here today.       Most of the time just near 56*.

[psv88]

Hoping for some good storms soon...bought this drone and cant wait to take some aerial video of the lightning, etc. 

[wdrag]

Bluewave among others is on it for Wed...  maybe if it looks like hailers are a good bet, will start a thread Tuesday AM for Wed afternoon. 

[SnoSki14]

I think we'll see damaging winds with it. Our area gets into warm sector, good timing with the front after peak heating.

Very high shear and lapse rates. 

It's also getting closer to that time where severe threats have more potency. 

[Santa Claus]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest forecast soundings  have some of the steepest surface to 500 mb lapse rates that we have seen in April. Looks like the potential for a severe squall line Wednesday afternoon,. Pretty impressive severe signal for April.

that line runs half the length of the eastern seaboard, reminds me of some of those squall lines i saw as a kid in the 90s.  seems like SVR events have a different character these days for whatever reason.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. The temperature could surge above 70° in much of the region. A sharp cold front will likely cross the region on Wednesday, possibly with a squall line, bringing a short period of much below normal readings. Thursday morning and perhaps Friday morning could see the temperature fall below 40° in New York City. There is some chance that this could be the last temperature in the 30s for Central Park until next fall.

Meanwhile, a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to parts of the Great Lakes region tomorrow into Wednesday. Detroit could see 1"-3" of snow while Toledo picks up 2"-4". Uncertainty about the actual accumulations is greater than normal given spring climatology and the large differences between the 12z GFS and the far more aggressive 12z HREF. The 18z GFS ticked northward relative to the 12z run with its forecast area of accumulating snow. The above amounts reflect a blend of the NBM, HREF, and ECMWF.

Some of the guidance is again suggesting that the month could close with much above normal temperatures. Such an outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +12.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.021 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.932 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.750 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Running through Bufkit, it's looking like both Detroit and Toledo could see more snow than what I described above if the subsequent guidance remains consistent. It will be interesting to see how things evolve overnight.

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

that line runs half the length of the eastern seaboard, reminds me of some of those squall lines i saw as a kid in the 90s.  seems like SVR events have a different character these days for whatever reason.

Very active pattern for late April coming up. Severe threat Wednesday and big temperature drop to near freezing Thursday. Then a warm up followed by a slow moving coastal on Sunday. 

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(44/64), or -3.0.

Month to date is  53.1[+1.9].       Should be 53.4[+0.4] by the 28th.

Only EURO does not have the 80's now by the 28th/29th.

51*(77%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.      53* by 9am.      55* by 10am.       62* by Noon.    65* by 1pm.         69* reached at 3pm but quickly back to 63* at 4pm.      67* at 4:30pm., coastal area  wackiness.        Up To 70* at 5pm!!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

that line runs half the length of the eastern seaboard, reminds me of some of those squall lines i saw as a kid in the 90s.  seems like SVR events have a different character these days for whatever reason.

I tend to agree with this. I remember several MCS as a kid that were damaging across the whole area. There was one in particular in April late 90s that had some good hail. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to perhaps middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 74°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. As a strong cold front crosses the region, it could be marked by the passive of a squall line with severe thunderstorms.

Farther west, the storm that will drag the cold front across the region tomorrow will bring a late-season snowfall to parts of the Great Lakes region into western and upstate New York late today into tomorrow. Snowfall estimates and daily records:

Buffalo: 3”-6”; April 20: 5.5”, 1901; April 21: 1.3”, 1934

Detroit: 2”-4”; April 20: 1.2”, 1947; April 21: 0.3”, 1978

Indianapolis: 1”-2”; April 20: None; April 21: 0.7”, 1901

Toledo: 3”-6”; April 20: 0.3”, 2013; April 21: 2.0”, 1922

Windsor: 2”-4” (5-10 cm); April 20: 0.9” (2.3 cm), 1947; April 21: 0.8” (2.0 cm), 1986

[STORMANLI]

I remember a good hailer after dark in March one of the years between 2005 and 2010 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like Thursday will likely be the last time we see 30s until Oct/Nov. 

Very close to freezing forecast.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Thursday will likely be the last time we see 30s until Oct/Nov. 

Very close to freezing forecast.

Yeah, not thinking that we see a repeat of last year. That was the first time the May monthly minimum temperature was lower than April. Quite a swing to warmer after that to the 2nd warmest summer behind 2010 near the coast.

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Season
1891	29	32	29
1874	20	33	20
2020	36	34	34
1947	33	35	33
1880	26	35	26

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.4°F	125	2.7°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200206 - 200208	72.9°F	114	1.2°F
201306 - 201308	72.9°F	114	1.2°F

[Rtd208]

Nice day out there.

Current temp 74

[jm1220]

Gorgeous here, temp 71. Captree stuck at 53 about a half hour drive away. 

[psv88]

Gorgeous day, 70 and sun 

[Brian5671]

74 here and breezy

[uncle W]

78 imby...

[Intensewind002]

Only 65 for the high here today, mostly due to the southerly breeze. Still a nice day though

[doncat]

76/43 temp split today.

[donsutherland1]

At 7 pm, snow was falling and accumulating in such cities as Indianapolis, where no measurable snow events had previously been recorded on April 20, Toledo and Detroit. Earlier in the day, Kansas City experienced its biggest snowfall on record after April 8, as 3.5" of snow accumulated.

That storm will bring snow from the Great Lakes region into western and upstate New York State tonight into tomorrow. The snow will extend into parts of Ontario and Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City. Snowfall estimates and daily records:

Buffalo: 3"-6"; April 20: 5.5", 1901; April 21: 1.3", 1934
Detroit: 2"-4"; April 20: 1.2", 1947; April 21: 0.3", 1978
Indianapolis: 1"-2"; April 20: None; April 21: 0.7", 1901
Toledo: 3"-6"; April 20: 0.3", 2013; April 21: 2.0", 1922
Toronto: 2"-4" (5-10 cm); April 20: 0.9" (2.2 cm), 1978; April 21: 2.7" (6.9 cm), 1945
Windsor, ON: 2"-4" (5-10 cm); April 20: 0.9" (2.3 cm), 1947; April 21: 0.8" (2.0 cm), 1986

Farther east, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will see readings rise into the 60s ahead of the strong cold front that will be pushed across the region as the storm far to the north and west of the region. A squall line with strong thunderstorms, damaging winds and possibly hail will mark the cold front's passage. Thursday morning and perhaps Friday morning could see the temperature fall below 40° in New York City. This could be the last time the temperature falls into the 30s in Central Park until next fall.

The guidance is suggesting that the month could close with much above normal temperatures. Such an outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +21.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.172 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.932 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.750 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.9° (0.9° above normal).

 

[psv88]

71 today

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(45/64), or -1.0.

Month to date is  55.0[+2.3].       Should be about 55.0[+2.0] by the 29th.

No more than 0.25" rain today showing now?      CMC has 3 80's incoming and is the king there for the last two days.       Seems a heatwave after the 26th., despite recurving typhoon, becoming more likely.    850mb T is +10C to +12C from 4/29 to 5/05 and this would be AN all the way to early June.

53*(76%RH) here at 6am, mixed clouds,breaks.     54* by 9am.    55* at Noon.       T spiked to 59* at 3pm and has crashed to 51* by 5pm with strong winds all day.      Heard rumble of thunder at 2:15pm but rain mostly failed here except for a few drops in the morning.     43* at 9pm.      42* at 10pm.

[bluewave]

Our next big temperature drop of the spring. From late March into early April it was 80s to 20s in 7 days. Now places like Newark will drop from 78° to the mid 30s in just 2 days.
 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         78    245 PM  91    1941  64     14       56       
  MINIMUM         48    550 AM  34    1953  45      3       42       
  AVERAGE         63                        54      9       49     

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 7:40 am, the late-season storm that brought daily record snowfall to many parts of the Midwest was bringing snow to Buffalo. Already, amounts in excess were being reported in the greater Buffalo area. As that storm tracks into Quebec, it will drag a strong cold front across the region. Passage of that front could be marked by a squall line with strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and even some hail.

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. The temperature will struggle to reach the lower 50s.

[SnoSki14]

06z Gfs is now downright summery late April into May.

Shows mid to upper 80s multiple days.

[tek1972]

06z Gfs is now downright summery late April into May.
Shows mid to upper 80s multiple days.

I don't know. To my untrained eye, this has back door implications :/

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