bluewave Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 The big high temperature winners today were the areas away from the marine influence. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 62 51 67 S10 Central Park MOSUNNY 67 50 54 E8 Poughkeepsie MOSUNNY 72 55 55 S9 SYRACUSE PTSUNNY 79 44 28 VRB7 BUFFALO CLOUDY 81 40 23 VRB3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big high temperature winners today were the areas away from the marine influence. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 62 51 67 S10 Central Park MOSUNNY 67 50 54 E8 Poughkeepsie MOSUNNY 72 55 55 S9 SYRACUSE PTSUNNY 79 44 28 VRB7 BUFFALO CLOUDY 81 40 23 VRB3 Wow 81. beautiful 69 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 56 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wow 81. beautiful 69 here The elevated convection will be nice change on Sunday following the 3rd driest start to April on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Apr 1 to Apr 10 Missing Count 1 1881-04-10 0.00 0 2 1900-04-10 0.01 0 3 2021-04-10 0.04 1 4 1909-04-10 0.05 0 5 1963-04-10 0.06 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The elevated convection will be nice change on Sunday following the 3rd driest start to April on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Apr 1 to Apr 10 Missing Count 1 1881-04-10 0.00 0 2 1900-04-10 0.01 0 3 2021-04-10 0.04 1 4 1909-04-10 0.05 0 5 1963-04-10 0.06 0 Yea it’s been dry. but my god today is glorious. No wind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 It became partly sunny and quite warm this afternoon. The temperature topped out at 70° in New York City. Many more trees have exploded into full bloom in the New York Botanical Garden. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Just put some bug and grub killer down in lawn. Granules need to be soaked in, rain should take care of that tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Clouds broke for sunshine today and temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be more unsettled. A period of rain is likely tomorrow. There could also be some thunder. Tomorrow could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.076 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.983 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(47/58), or about -1.0. Month to date is 53.1[+3.6]. Should be about 52.8[+1.5] by the 19th. GFS/CMC have about 2" over the next 10 days and the EURO is headed toward 5" during this period. 55*(93%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.2m. 59* by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Euro and GFS are wet moving forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with a period of rain this morning. Clouds will linger during the afternoon and a shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see temperatures top out in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be much cooler with readings only in the lower and middle 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 We trade in warmer and drier blocking for cooler and wetter. Better chances for rain starting today. The pattern usually ends up with closed lows this time of year with strong blocking. So one closed low moves through the next several days followed by another on Thursday. The ensembles are hinting at the Eastern Trough lingering into late April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Second half of April? eke The rest of the week is in and out of clouds and showers, with snow Thurs. night for some nearby locations apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 These ensembles are making it depressing looking at next couple weeks. Bunch of sh*t weather possibly coming. Feels like November getting the last nice fall day and looking at a long miserable cold stretch to wait for spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash I'd give up a month's pay for this to verify 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash I'd give up a month's pay for this to verify Absolutely not. Don't need the destruction that will cause 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 they don't call them clown maps for nothing...we saw our first 80 degree day on March 26th...when will the next 80 degree day come?... 1921 was 80 + on 3/21 and 3/28...next 80 was 5/9... 1945 was 80+ on 3/20/28/29...next 80 was 4/13... 1977 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was 4/12...(90)... 1985 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was 4/19...(88)... 1989 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was 5/18... 1990 was 80+ on 3/13 and 3/16...next 80 was 4/23... 1998 was 80+ from 3/27-31...next 80 was 5/15... 2021 was 80+ on 3/26...next 80 ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 52 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash I'd give up a month's pay for this to verify GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 48 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations Matter of fact, midday GFS is already showing signs of slowly coming to a realistic scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 The 12z GFS continues to be very wet for late week possibly into the early portion of next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Had visibility under 1/8 mile at my place from 4-7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations I'm at 1,500 feet so hopefully I'll see some mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. Hoping to pick up at least another half inch. Current temp 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 @crossbowftw3Now the 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Rainy and raw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3Now the 12z EURO? way more realistic snow:elevation distribution for what you'd expect for a late seaon storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 really don't understand what NWS was thinking rolling out the new radar, it shows you as little information as possible as slowly as possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 Only 0.22 of rain at my station so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 11, 2021 Author Share Posted April 11, 2021 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: way more realistic snow:elevation distribution for what you'd expect for a late seaon storm. What am seeing is increasing EC op wintry look, tho EPS I thought was a little ahead of GEFS on snow acc. If it’s still on the models tomorrow with 4 inches suburban elevations, would thread. Nothing today from myself on this. For auburn to suburban at 452, after returning to better vision at home. aging... glad I got here. don't rush it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 0.10” so far. Nuisance “rain”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted April 11, 2021 Author Share Posted April 11, 2021 0.63 so far in this part of Wantage NJ. Made the correction to my intended 330PM message (suburban). now checking further...fwiw.. all very minor, but WPC has spotty 10% chance of 3+" of snow in the Catskills by 12z Friday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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