April 2021

[dWave]

Reach 82 briefly.  Wild temp swings. Went from upper 60s to low 80s in an hr than back to 70 the next hr. While technically 80s (for 15 mins or so) the day felt far from one of the warmest thus far.

[doncat]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, now the temperature is back down to 71° at LGA. Very impressive hourly and daily temperature jumps since late March on the wind shifts.  The temperature on the South Shore back in late March rose from 57° to 80° in an hour.

Wind here went sw for one hour around noon with the temp jumping from 73 to 83... thereafter back to onshore and dropping back thru the 70's.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, doncat said:

Wind here went sw for one hour around noon with the temp jumping from 73 to 83... thereafter back to onshore and dropping back thru the 70's.

This is one of the less common months when the high temperatures are driving the departures. NYC was +1.5 on the max and +0.3 on the min through yesterday. Frequent cold fronts and drier conditions have allowed the minimum temperatures to remain near normal while the high temperatures have been above average.

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT WED APR 28 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 28 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         89    157 PM  90    1990  67     22       68       
                                      2009                           
  MINIMUM         50    502 AM  33    1934  48      2       40       
  AVERAGE         70                        57     13       54   

[Rtd208]

High for the day made it up to 91 here. 

Current temp 89

[Rtd208]

Mt. Holly on the wind threat Friday afternoon/night.

In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage, we will dry out, and  
  attention will turn to the winds. Trends seen on the previous  
  overnight shift have continued today, with the potential for a  
  rather significant wind event late Friday into Friday night. In the  
  wake of the front, a very robust shortwave trough and associated  
  vorticity lobe will move through the region towards Friday  
  afternoon. An additional rain shower is possible late Friday morning  
  into the early afternoon ahead of this disturbance, but will likely  
  be limited in coverage due to decreasing moisture. Behind this  
  secondary disturbance, strong cold advection and a tight pressure  
  gradient will develop as surface low pressure rapidly deepens  
  heading into the Canadian maritimes, while high pressure encroaches  
  from the west. 28.12z guidance has actually trended even stronger on  
  wind fields for late Friday afternoon into Friday night. 12z NAM and  
  GFS BUFKIT soundings are supportive of wind gusts of at least 40 to  
  50 mph, if not higher, Friday late afternoon and evening. Continued  
  to trend the wind forecast upward to reflect this, though there is  
  still room to go up a bit more. Profiles suggest that little if any  
  stabilization of the boundary layer is likely at least during the  
  first half of Friday night, so while the timing is not the most  
  favorable for high winds in a traditional sense, that currently  
  doesn`t appear it will be much of a hindrance. If current trends  
  continue, we will at least reach Wind Advisory levels by late  
  Friday, and could potentially even be near High Wind Warning  
  thresholds. This is worth watching closely over the next couple of  
  days especially given leaves are now coming out on the trees,  
  increasing the wind damage risk.   

[doncat]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Wind here went sw for one hour around noon with the temp jumping from 73 to 83... thereafter back to onshore and dropping back thru the 70's.

Winds shifted back to w so temp back up again to 80.

[uncle W]

71 now...down from 73 ...

[psv88]

Incredible day, felt like summer from 12:30 until about 5. Still 71. Let's go summer

[Dan76]

35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Mt. Holly on the wind threat Friday afternoon/night.

In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage, we will dry out, and  
  attention will turn to the winds. Trends seen on the previous  
  overnight shift have continued today, with the potential for a  
  rather significant wind event late Friday into Friday night. In the  
  wake of the front, a very robust shortwave trough and associated  
  vorticity lobe will move through the region towards Friday  
  afternoon. An additional rain shower is possible late Friday morning  
  into the early afternoon ahead of this disturbance, but will likely  
  be limited in coverage due to decreasing moisture. Behind this  
  secondary disturbance, strong cold advection and a tight pressure  
  gradient will develop as surface low pressure rapidly deepens  
  heading into the Canadian maritimes, while high pressure encroaches  
  from the west. 28.12z guidance has actually trended even stronger on  
  wind fields for late Friday afternoon into Friday night. 12z NAM and  
  GFS BUFKIT soundings are supportive of wind gusts of at least 40 to  
  50 mph, if not higher, Friday late afternoon and evening. Continued  
  to trend the wind forecast upward to reflect this, though there is  
  still room to go up a bit more. Profiles suggest that little if any  
  stabilization of the boundary layer is likely at least during the  
  first half of Friday night, so while the timing is not the most  
  favorable for high winds in a traditional sense, that currently  
  doesn`t appear it will be much of a hindrance. If current trends  
  continue, we will at least reach Wind Advisory levels by late  
  Friday, and could potentially even be near High Wind Warning  
  thresholds. This is worth watching closely over the next couple of  
  days especially given leaves are now coming out on the trees,  
  increasing the wind damage risk.   

Not as bad here

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will get east of the region on Friday. A tight pressure
gradient will result in breezy, if not gusty conditions to start the
day. A potent shortwave shown by the global models is progged to
swing through by later in the day or early evening. This should
result in a second surge as far as the winds and wind gusts go.
Thinking that there is the potential for 40 mph gusts region wide
with strong CAA pattern setting up late in the day and into the
evening. Overall the day should be mainly dry, with just the chance
of a few widely scattered showers and sprinkles with mainly PVA and
low level convergence driving any lift, but the low levels will be
dry. The temperatures wave will lag the pressure wave, thus Friday
will be a fairly mild day with the wind resulting in some dry
adiabatic compression. Thus, temperatures should be close to 70
across much of the region on Friday before the noticeably cooler air
comes in during Friday night as the winds become more NW. By
Saturday morning near freezing wind chills are expected across far
northern sections.

 

 

[dmillz25]

Park high 85 @nycwinter

[ebwx]

Amazing ride home his afternoon.  As mentioned, about 63 in Coney Island ( just s of the belt) and 88-90 into central NJ Middlesex county .

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared into the 80s in a large part of the region this afternoon. The Connecticut shore, Long Island, and parts of the Jersey shore were exceptions on account of proximity to cooler waters. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 86°
Atlantic City: 89° (old record: 88°, 2009)
Baltimore: 89°
Bridgeport: 60°
Islip: 74°
Harrisburg: 87°
New York City-Central Park: 85°
New York City-JFK: 73°
New York City-LGA: 83°
Newark: 89°
Philadelphia: 87°
Poughkeepsie: 84°
Scranton: 85°
Trenton: 85°
Washington, DC: 87°
Wilmington, DE: 87°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler, though still mild for the season. Some showers and periods of rain are likely, especially during the afternoon into the night. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.

Elsewhere, unseasonable warmth will develop in an area stretching from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures Friday or Saturday.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +10.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.498 today.

On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.721 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.511 (RMM).

Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April since April 6, 2012 when the amplitude was 2.735. It is also the third highest amplitude on record for Phase 8 during April.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

Highs 4/28

EWR: 89
ACY: 89
New Brnswck: 87
PHL: 87
TEB: 86
BLM: 86
TTN: 85
NYC: 85
LGA: 83
ISP:74
JFK: 73

[gravitylover]

I'm getting more rain than I expected. The first bit was significant at .07, now it's just light rain/drizzle. 

[the_other_guy]

Thunderstorms inbound. Surprised no posts about it

[STORMANLI]

Yeah, quiet.  Temp down to 59°.

No lightning nor thunder. .yet.

[nycwinter]

surprised i saw no forecast of any storminess tonight for the city

[the_other_guy]

Just now, nycwinter said:

surprised i saw no forecast of any storminess tonight for the city

This is north. I bet city sees a sprinkle in eastern sections

 

Yonkers-> Oyster Bay track

[nycwinter]

i'm in manhattan its raining and windy..

[Snowlover11]

poured pretty good here in yonkers.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

surprised i saw no forecast of any storminess tonight for the city

You're wrong

[Santa Claus]

wow i was like... what the hell are you guys talking about... nothing at all on weather.gov radar.  and then i loaded the Rutgers loop and saw how it all just evaporated.

well anyway more on the way from PA in several hours.

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 91 here.

Current temp 65

[gravitylover]

.14 from that first round. 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[Rtd208]

Mt. Holly has issued a High Wind Watch for their forecast area from Friday afternoon thru late Friday night for wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Mt. Holly has issued a High Wind Watch for their forecast area from Friday afternoon thru late Friday night for wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

Looks like a long duration, strong wind event. 

And with the green up very far along it'll be more impactful than usual.

[bluewave]

Just looking at the teleconnections, it appears like this should  have been a cold April. But the warmer south based blocking continued like we saw during the winter. So it was a rare warmer than average -EPO, -AO, -NAO April. 

 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of April are averaging 65degs.(58/72), or +6.0.

Month to date is  54.0[+1.7].         April should end at 54.7[+1.7].

The first 10 days of May keep getting closer to Normal at 61degs.(53/69), or +2.0.       Looks wet, with multiple nuisance rain chances.      Next go for 90 is the 10th.

Yesterday at 3pm I was at 60* in CI(1500' from the water)while Newark just 15mi. away had 88*.        I scored a late day high here of 72* at 9pm.

60*(78%RH) here at 6am, thin broken overcast.      61* at 7am.        Variable  59* to 65* from 6am-Noon.       66* at 6pm(El Trabajo del Diablo)

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain, especially during the afternoon into early tomorrow. A thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

Any rain will end early tomorrow. It will become somewhat cooler.