April 2021

[bluewave]

Quick wavelength changes coming up with the very strong MJO and typhoon recurve. Looks like we finally get our April 80° potential on Wednesday. But a near record amplitude MJO 8 for April doesn’t allow it to lock in for long. So it’s followed by a backdoor cold front and cooler on Thursday.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Quick wavelength changes coming up with the very strong MJO and typhoon recurve. Looks like we finally get our April 80° potential on Wednesday. But a near record amplitude MJO 8 for April doesn’t allow it to lock in for long. So it’s followed by a backdoor cold front and cooler on Thursday.

 

 

Yeah and the BDCF could trend even stronger in the coming days. Models still picking up on it.

We could see mid 80s flip to mid 50s from Wed to Thursday. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 68°

Tomorrow will cloudy and rainy. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall is likely across the region. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

[Brian5671]

12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC

Way different compared to 6z.

A rainy Sunday would be nice

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way different compared to 6z.

A rainy Sunday would be nice

3k is wetter with .50 for everyone but it does end the precip a bit earlier like 10-11am

[bluewave]

The system is moving pretty quickly. So the best chance for rain will be tonight into early Sunday. Looks like the afternoon could turn out nice with breaks of sun and 60s. 

 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/24/2021  0600 UTC                      
 DT /APR  24      /APR  25                /APR  26             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              71          51          63          41       65    
 TMP  53 64 68 68 64 58 54 53 54 54 59 61 56 53 48 43 46 55 62 59 47 
 DPT  36 32 30 31 33 36 40 42 44 44 43 38 34 33 30 26 24 19 17 19 25 
 CLD  SC FW SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK FW CL CL CL CL FW CL FW CL 
 WDR  26 27 23 20 22 18 18 05 02 36 31 31 30 31 29 29 30 31 30 30 30 
 WSP  05 07 10 11 09 05 03 05 09 12 14 17 19 19 15 14 17 17 18 18 04

 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

[gravitylover]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC

To me that's hinting at another south and east storm. Based on this I have a feeling I'll stay mostly dry.

[psv88]

72 today. Was nice 

[A Moonlit Sky]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden:

Lovely. I've only ever been for the yearly holiday train show.

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

Lovely. I've only ever been for the yearly holiday train show.

Thank you for the kind words. A lot is currently in bloom.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight and tomorrow morning, a storm will bring rain to the region. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely from Philadelphia to New York City with some locally higher amounts. Lesser amounts are likely north of New York City.

Clouds will likely begin to break during the afternoon. The day could end with some sunshine.

Monday will be fair but cool. It will become noticeably warmer on Tuesday.

April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast.

This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -1.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.000 today.

On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.762 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.048 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC

0z Nam a lot rainier especially city south. Looks like north trend won out.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

0z Nam a lot rainier especially city south. Looks like north trend won out.

And radar looks pretty good. Heavier echoes are making it pretty far north in eastern PA. Looks like it's gonna be a good half inch to three quarters of an inch soaking for the NYC area.

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of April are averaging 59degs.(50/68) or +2.0.

Month to date is 53.4[+1.4].        April should end at 54.5[+1.5].

After the April 28/29 T spike, the next spikes look to be  May 04/05 and May 09/10-----then a long wait to May 21 for another one?

Rain today of about 0.60".

50%(95%RH) here at 6am, light rain.        53* by Noon and brightening skies.        55* at 1pm.        Made it to 65* around 6pm, with sunny breaks.

[bluewave]

Looks like .47 so far in NYC. Matches the spring theme of mostly light to moderate events. While this spring is on the drier side of recent years, it’s still wetter than 2016 was.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 25	Missing Count
2021-04-25	5.88	0
2020-04-25	7.33	0
2019-04-25	7.26	0
2018-04-25	10.62	0
2017-04-25	8.69	0
2016-04-25	2.49	0
2015-04-25	6.80	0
2014-04-25	5.60	0
2013-04-25	4.17	0
2012-04-25	4.45	0
2011-04-25	11.23	0
2010-04-25	12.94	0

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Rain will end later this morning or early this afternoon. Clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow sunny but somewhat cooler than normal. A warmup will follow. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures.

[CIK62]

Worst of the rain was over shortly after 3am this morning so few had to deal with it.

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.49" of rain for the day. 

Current temp 50

[Brian5671]

about a half inch here-NAM was too dry for us-EURO had the best #'s.

[gravitylover]

.25. It has been windy all morning so the pavement is already dry and the grass/yard will be soon too. 

51/47/NE5/OVC

[IrishRob17]

.15 total

[winterwx21]

Glad we got our decent half inch soaking. It was bone dry so we really needed it.  Next chance of rain looks to be thursday, although not a significant event. Right now is looks like showers and maybe around a quarter of an inch.

[weatherfreeeeak]

Rain definitely came in more north than most all models had...

[bluewave]

This month is another example of the coldest departures focused around the Plains.

 

 

[winterwx21]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like .47 so far in NYC. Matches the spring theme of mostly light to moderate events. While this spring is on the drier side of recent years, it’s still wetter than 2016 was.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 25	Missing Count
2021-04-25	5.88	0
2020-04-25	7.33	0
2019-04-25	7.26	0
2018-04-25	10.62	0
2017-04-25	8.69	0
2016-04-25	2.49	0
2015-04-25	6.80	0
2014-04-25	5.60	0
2013-04-25	4.17	0
2012-04-25	4.45	0
2011-04-25	11.23	0
2010-04-25	12.94	0

And NYC ended up with a .59 total. Not bad.

[Rtd208]

Ended up being a decent day after the rain. 

Current temp 64

[LoboLeader1]

Ended up with .60 “ in the rain bucket here. 

[uncle W]

NYC Spring temperature and precipitation...max and ave temperature from 3/1 to 5/31...
year.....ave temp....precip"....max temp......snowfall 3/1 to end...
1869..........47.2......10.15......84..........................0.8"

1870..........48.6......10.27......86...……..……….12.1"
1871..........52.2......12.61......92...………………..2.1"
1872..........47.1........8.71......89...………………..5.1"
1873..........47.1........9.94......87...………………..0.4"
1874..........45.7......13.13......90...………………….T
1875..........45.8........7.99......86...………………28.8"
1876..........47.2......14.88......87...………………..3.8"
1877..........47.7........9.24......88...………………..6.5"
1878..........52.3........8.43......84...………………….0
1879..........50.6........9.76......86...………………12.8"

1880..........51.5........8.18......96...……..………..12.3"
1881..........48.4........9.96......93...……...……….11.1"
1882..........48.2........8.37......80...………………..3.3"
1883..........47.0........8.03......82...……………….20.6"
1884..........48.5......11.18......86...………………...2.3"
1885..........46.6........4.95......87...………………...4.1"
1886..........50.2......12.08......86...………………...2.0"
1887..........47.5........6.20......87...………………...7.0"
1888..........44.7......13.13......84...……………….22.3"
1889..........51.5......11.00......91...……………….,,4,0"

1890..........48.3......10.80......81...……………….17.3"
1891..........47.8........8.44......82...………………...2.1"
1892..........47.4........9.73......81...……………….13.0"
1893..........46.7......13.50......85...………………...6.6"
1894..........51.0........7.27......85...………………...1.0"
1895..........49.3........7.59......96...………………...4.0"
1896..........50.6........9.06......92...……………….33.5"
1897..........50.9......10.83......81...………………...3.3"
1898..........50.6......12.75......86...………………...4.5"
1899..........49.9........8.60......88...………………...4.8"

1900..........47.7........9.23......90...………………...5.8"
1901..........47.9......18.52......85...…………………..T
1902..........51.3........9.22......86...………………...6.5"
1903..........54.2........7.97......89...…………………..0
1904..........48.8........9.25......89...………………...5.4"
1905..........50.6........6.60......81...………………...1.8"
1906..........50.1......16.47......90...……………….11.5"
1907..........48.5......11.08......85...……………….19.1"
1908..........52.3......13.16......88...………………...3.5"
1909..........49.1......11.17......83...………………...4.3"

1910..........53.0........7.51......82...………………...1.3"
1911..........48.7........8.12......86...………………...4.0"
1912..........50.1......16.63......89...………………...4.5"
1913..........52.7......15.69......89...………………...2.8"
1914..........49.6......10.43......95...……………….21.5"
1915..........50.1........7.10......92...……………….17.9"
1916..........47.4......11.33......81...……………….28.8"
1917..........47.3......11.00......84...……………….18.2"
1918..........52.7......11.15......91...………………...3.2"
1919..........51.8......12.99......92...………………...2.7"

1920..........48.9......13.26......82...………………...5.3"
1921..........55.2......10.19......89...………………...0.1"
1922..........52.4......11.30......86...………………...3.9"
1923..........49.0........8.37......86...………………...8.1"
1924..........48.5......14.47......75...……………….11.6"
1925..........51.9........9.43......91...…………………..T
1926..........47.7........6.81......83...………………...1.2"
1927..........50.2........8.95......90...………………...0.3"
1928..........48.9........9.73......80...………………...5.7"
1929..........52.6......14.09......93...………………...0.2"

1930..........50.8........7.96......91...…………………..T
1931..........51.0......13.00......93...………………..1.8"
1932..........49.4......11.11......90...………………..0.6"
1933..........51.1......16.46......90...…………….….4.8"
1934..........50.4......13.11......90...………………..8.6"
1935..........51.0........5.06......89...………………..2.0"
1936..........52.5......11.72......92...………………..1.5"
1937..........50.4......10.90......93...………………..2.5"
1938..........52.9........8.96......89...………………..7.1"
1939..........51.1........9.93......96...………………..7.0"

1940..........47.5......17.80......83...………………..7.1"
1941..........52.5........7.70......96...………………19.2"
1942..........54.0........8.78......92...………………..2.7"
1943..........49.6......10.44......89...………………..7.1"
1944..........51.2......11.91......92...………………11.3"
1945..........55.3......11.23......86...………………...T
1946..........54.0......11.44......87...………………...T
1947..........49.4......11.63......86...………………..6.1"
1948..........51.1......14.35......87...………………..4.7"
1949..........53.3........9.49......92...………………..4.2"

1950..........47.9........7.05......82...………………..3.3"
1951..........52.6......12.99......90...………………..2.7"
1952..........52.0......13.83......83...………………..7.4"
1953..........53.6......18.31......90...………………..0.9"
1954..........51.7........9.05......85...………………..0.4"
1955..........53.5........8.32......90...………………..3.6"
1956..........48.1......10.01......89...……………....25.3"
1957..........52.7......10.17......87...………………..5.1"
1958..........50.8......12.58......82...………………16.1"
1959..........53.4........7.01......94...………………..7.3"

1960..........50.0........8.98......87...……………...18.5"
1961..........50.1......12.91......85...………………..1.2"
1962..........53.6........7.23......99...………………..0.2"
1963..........52.8........7.04......86...………………..2.8"
1964..........52.7........8.23......94...………………..6.0"
1965..........52.3........6.97......94...………………..4.0"
1966..........51.3........7.89......85...………………….T
1967..........47.5......13.50......81...……………...17.4"
1968..........52.6......14.67......82...………………..6.1"
1969..........53.8......10.39......97...………………..5.6"

1970..........51.6......11.00......93...………………..4.0"
1971..........50.8......10.99......85...………………..1.7"
1972..........51.1......16.86......86...………………..2.3"
1973..........53.1......16.16......86...………………..0.2"
1974..........52.8......13.88......92...………………..3.5"
1975..........51.3........9.74......93...………………..0.3"
1976..........53.2......10.56......96...………………..4.4"
1977..........55.2......12.87......92...………………..0.6"
1978..........50.7......14.26......90...………………..6.8"
1979..........54.9......14.67......94...………………….T

1980..........53.8......21.00......90...………………..4.6"
1981..........54.4........8.17......87...………………..8.6"
1982..........52.4......10.66......84...……………...10.3"
1983..........52.2......29.15......85...………………..0.8"
1984..........50.1......22.66......85...……………...11.9"
1985..........55.5........9.04......88...………………..0.2"
1986..........55.2........7.07......94...………………….T
1987..........54.1......12.28......97...………………..1.9"
1988..........52.5........9.57......91...………………….T
1989..........52.2......19.43......86...………………..2.5"

1990..........52.9......17.86......91...………………..3.7"
1991..........56.3......11.95......93...………………..0.2"
1992..........50.5........9.86......93...………………..9.4"
1993..........52.9......12.48......92...……………...11.9"
1994..........52.7......13.01......91...………………..8.1"
1995..........52.9........6.39......87...………………….T
1996..........50.7......12.78......96...……………...13.9"
1997..........51.0......11.09......83...………………..1.7"
1998..........54.6......19.07......87...………………..5.0"
1999..........53.0........9.98......89...………………..4.5"

2000..........53.9......11.34......93...………………..1.6"
2001..........52.5......11.32......92...………………..3.8"
2002..........53.6......10.63......96...………………….T
2003..........50.5......11.20......88...………………..7.5"
2004..........54.1......12.87......87...………………..4.8"
2005..........51.1......11.18......87...………………..6.9"
2006..........54.0......10.98......88...………………..1.4"
2007..........51.0......20.28......91...………………..6.0"
2008..........52.5......10.86......84...………………….T
2009..........53.1......11.61......92...………………..8.3"

2010..........57.1......16.69......92...………………….T
2011..........53.7......16.65......89...………………..1.0"
2012..........56.9........9.90......89............…………...0
2013..........52.0......12.21......90...………………..7.3"

2014..........51.3......15.89......89...………………..0.1"

2015..........53.6........8.73......88...……………...18.6"

2016..........55.0........7.96......92...………………..0.9"

2017..........52.5......15.47......92...………………..9.7"

2018..........52.2......14.48......92...……………...17.1"

2019...……53.1......15.24…..86..……………….10.4"

 

2020...…...52.9...…..8.92".....86......…...………….T