LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Think Boston gets snow out of this? Also, I think it's extremely unlikely that it will be down in the 30s next Thursday since it didn't even get there this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 5 hours ago, doncat said: For you hot weather lovers... Today in 2002 marked the first day of an amazing 4 day mid April heat wave..High temps at my station reached 91, 96, 91 and 91 degrees from the 16th thru the 19th. and with clear blue skies (no haze) amazing! whats with all these -nao/-ao in mid to late April and May, why is this happening so much more now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 a large scale pattern change that has caused this Chris? This is probably another reason why we've had fewer 90 degree highs than what we had in the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 7 hours ago, doncat said: For you hot weather lovers... Today in 2002 marked the first day of an amazing 4 day mid April heat wave..High temps at my station reached 91, 96, 91 and 91 degrees from the 16th thru the 19th. I remember that well. I was a freshman in college and there was no AC in the dorms...I ended up sleeping on the beach volleyball court 1 night because it was cooler out there than inside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Think Boston gets snow out of this? Also, I think it's extremely unlikely that it will be down in the 30s next Thursday since it didn't even get there this week. It got down to 37 here last night. Tons of 30s around the area last night outside the typically warmer spots or areas that stayed cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: a large scale pattern change that has caused this Chris? This is probably another reason why we've had fewer 90 degree highs than what we had in the 90s. The 90° degree day stats seem more like a wind direction issue since the airports are all on the water. Much more humid heat since 2015. The big onshore flow component has resulted in fewer 90° days at EWR and JFK. But since LGA is on the North Shore of Queens, the S to SE flow hasn’t impacted their recent 90° day counts. So they have had some of their highest 90° totals on record since 2015. Same story for Harrison, NJ which is more inland from Newark airport and doesn’t get the bay breeze. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 50 30 2 2018 47 0 - 2002 47 8 3 2005 41 9 4 2016 40 0 5 2020 39 0 - 2019 39 0 6 2012 35 21 7 2015 32 0 8 2011 31 30 9 2006 30 4 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: a large scale pattern change that has caused this Chris? This is probably another reason why we've had fewer 90 degree highs than what we had in the 90s. NYC 90 degree days by decades...the 1940's had the most...since 1930 the lowest decade was the 2000's... 1870's...101 1880's.....81 1890's...138 1900's...101 1910's...115 1920's...128 1930's...189 1940's...202 1950's...175 1960's...181 1970's...183 1980's...195 1990's...197 2000's...123 2010's...192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC 90 degree days by decades...the 1940's had the most...since 1930 the lowest decade was the 2000's... 1870's...101 1880's.....81 1890's...138 1900's...101 1910's...115 1920's...128 1930's...189 1940's...202 1950's...175 1960's...181 1970's...183 1980's...195 1990's...197 2000's...123 2010's...192 in my lifetime the 80s and 90s were amazing, the 2010s were front loaded to 2010-13 its been bad springs and summers since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 90° degree day stats seem more like a wind direction issue since the airports are all on the water. Much more humid heat since 2015. The big onshore flow component has resulted in fewer 90° days at EWR and JFK. But since LGA is on the North Shore of Queens, the S to SE flow hasn’t impacted their recent 90° day counts. So they have had some of their highest 90° totals on record since 2015. Same story for Harrison, NJ which is more inland from Newark airport and doesn’t get the bay breeze. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 50 30 2 2018 47 0 - 2002 47 8 3 2005 41 9 4 2016 40 0 5 2020 39 0 - 2019 39 0 6 2012 35 21 7 2015 32 0 8 2011 31 30 9 2006 30 4 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 is the breeze over the water an issue because of the SE ridge not being as strong? If it were stronger and built back farther to the west we'd have a land breeze and a ring of fire blocking off precip to our west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 No heat at all on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 No heat at all on the gfsNothing crazy cold either. I'll gladly take 60s Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: is the breeze over the water an issue because of the SE ridge not being as strong? If it were stronger and built back farther to the west we'd have a land breeze and a ring of fire blocking off precip to our west and north It may be related to the slowing AMOC and warmer waters east of New England. More ridging east of New England since 2015 has resulted in frequent summer SSE to SSW flow. There was a stronger ridge over the Plains from 2010 to 2013 with a dominant SW to W flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It may be related to the slowing AMOC and warmer waters east of New England. More ridging east of New England since 2015 has resulted in frequent summer SSE to SSW flow. There was a stronger ridge over the Plains from 2010 to 2013 with a dominant SW to W flow. Yep. The Bermuda high trended north the last few summers making the overall wind direction southerly instead of westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. The Bermuda high trended north the last few summers making the overall wind direction southerly instead of westerly. thats why it's more humid and why we've been having more tropical hits and close calls. did this happen in the 50s too? the 50s seem to be a good match for our winters too (most snow in March), before this winter that is. Maybe we're going to have another large scale pattern change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Newark NJ decade 90 degree days... 1940's...246 1950's...251 1960's...215 1970's...202 1980's...262 1990's...293 2000's...234 2010's...318 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 16, 2021 Share Posted April 16, 2021 Parts of New Hampshire picked up 13.0" snow. Snow will wind down across New England tonight. A slow warming trend will commence during the weekend. The recent model runs have now turned colder for the remaining week of April. That development will bear watching. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +4.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.537 today. On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.725 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.861 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(44/62), or -3.0. Month to date is 52.8[+2.1]. Should be about 52.9[+0.4] by the 25th. Quick T transition near 21/22. Another drop near the 26th. Best chance for 80 still near the 29th., another quick change point. Long Range GEFS looks coolish for the first 3 weeks of May! 44*(78%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 47* by 9am. 51* by Noon. 54* at 2pm. 55* by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 so far the max April Temp is 73 ...Last April almost set the record for the lowest monthly max with 68 as its highest temp...1940 has the record at 67 for the monthly max... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Have to wait until May for any 80+ heat it seems with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Very chilly airmass with 850 temps -5c to -10c on guidance April 21 - 23. Kind of a roller coaster bias cool the next week to 10 days. Window for any brief but stronger warmth may come on the 28-29 or 30th? Interestingly cooler without the big precip totals, cant imagine that lasts to much longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and a bit milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Tomorrow will be sunny and milder. The first half of next week will be noticeably warmer with readings well into the 60s with perhaps a day where they reach or exceed 70°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Severe weather with the intensifying tilting negative cold front Wednesday? Looks possible depending on timing. Afterwards we could see some rare 30s post 4/20 even into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Severe weather with the intensifying tilting negative cold front Wednesday? Looks possible depending on timing. Afterwards we could see some rare 30s post 4/20 even into NYC. We reached 32 in early May last year with snow flurries. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We reached 32 in early May last year with snow flurries. Yes, May 9th we had daytime snow showers. My pool was getting opened that day. Then by May 15th my kids were swimming (with help from the pool heater, but it was a warm day.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 last April and the first half of May was one of the coolest six weeks without a warm day I can remember...this year March delivered a warm day but it looks like we have to wait till May for the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 5 hours ago, uofmiami said: Have to wait until May for any 80+ heat it seems with this pattern. I’m fine with upper 60s and occasional 70, keep the heat waiting. Only thing I despise is the easterly wind marine layer crap, so far this spring hasn’t been too bad on that front. Of course watch that start happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 50s late in the morning. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Model forecasts indicating a very impressive cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Temperatures quickly rise into the low 70s ahead of the front. The forecast soundings indicate near record surface to 500 mb lapse rates. So severe convection looks possible. This is followed by a quick temperature drop to near freezing just N and W of NYC Thursday morning. Lapse rates remain steep to above 700mb so 50+ mph gusts will be possible behind the cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Chris, I heard all this cold weather is because of an extreme super typhoon near the Philippines, winds near 200 mph?! How come no one has been talking about this? Also there's going to be an impressive late season snow event on Tuesday 3-6 inches from KC to Chicago, how far east will that get? Looks like permanent warmth is about 7-10 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now