April 2021

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s.

The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included:

Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014)
Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986)
Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986)
Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966)
Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986)
Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986)
Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020)
Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986)

That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20.

The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today.

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

[uncle W]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s.

The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included:

Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014)
Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986)
Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986)
Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966)
Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986)
Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986)
Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020)
Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986)

That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20.

The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today.

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

Hold the mayo...breaking records by 24 degrees is unheard of in todays world...especially record lows unless the period of record is short...1966 is recent for me but thats at least 55 years of record...

[doncat]

Rain picked up past couple of hours...up to 0.90" for the day.

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Rain picked up past couple of hours...up to 0.90" for the day.

I was looking at the radar this morning and I thought the line of rain would pass thru by noon...since then the rain has been redeveloping just to our south all day...

[TheManWithNoFace]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I was looking at the radar this morning and I thought the line of rain would pass thru by noon...since then the rain has been redeveloping just to our south all day...

GFS nailed this storm. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.76" of rain for the day.

Current temp 49

[STORMANLI]

0.52"

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning all, 

 

This part of Wantage NJ, 0.88 as of 450A.  I see some of the heaviest appears NYC nwwd along the NYS/NJ border with 1+ so far, and plenty more to come with the inverted trough and slowly sewd departing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast. That rain ending toward 12z Tuesday.

 

Not threading the nor'easter potent elevation snow event for Thu-Fri, til at least this evening.  Could yield a period of non accumulating snow all the way to the coast Friday morning but marginal BL temps could leave it all rain except above 1000 feet.  GEFS still not responding to the GFS op, so while I like the EC idea, with banding well nw of the Low aloft, prefer to more carefully review after my work day is complete. This could also yield 45 kt wind gusts parts of LI, tho modeling is overall signaling 40 kt max. QPF should be a general 1-3" depending on duration with 3" max probably isolated.  You'll know more much sooner than I. Fun to speculate. I like the track of ensembled 500 LOW, hopefully it goes another 30 MI south for our forum but it's not too shabby. Have a good day.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(45/58), or about -2.0.

Month to date is  53.0[+3.3].       Should be about  52.5[+1.5] by the 20th.

All models have 4" to 6" of rain over the next 10 days.       37/45 seems to be the range at the time possible snow may occur.       But the nutty CMC has 31* out on the 21st.!

48*(87%RH) here at 6am, drizzle.      50* by 10am.       51* by 1pm.          51*/52* at 2pm.        49* by 6pm.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cooler and wetter -EPO +PNA pattern for at least the next 7 to 10 days. So still no sign of a warmer April day than the record 80s heat we had back in March. Beyond day 10, the models are indicating the potential for a typhoon recurve. Still too early for details. But it could reinforce the +PNA pattern for late April. Then we’ll have to see how things evolve into early May. Sometimes, strong enough wave breaks can have an extended influence on our pattern.

it's already too late for it to be as hot as 2010 was, the summer pattern had already established itself by this time in 2010

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s.

The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included:

Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014)
Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986)
Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986)
Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966)
Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986)
Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986)
Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020)
Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986)

That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20.

The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today.

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

how come we dont see these kinds of temperature departures here?

[LibertyBell]

 not coincidentally I haven't had any allergies yet this year!

screw it all, I'm 100% in favor of human climate manipulation, saves millions of lives and saves people from getting allergies.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

It will be mostly cloudy with some rain today. It will also be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's already too late for it to be as hot as 2010 was, the summer pattern had already established itself by this time in 2010

 

2010 is always a tough act to follow since it was so much warmer than all the other summers. While last summer was our 2nd warmest, it was almost a full degree cooler than 2010. The spring of 2010 was warm throughout with our last April 90s.

NY Coastal climate division 4

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.4°F	125	2.7°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how come we dont see these kinds of temperature departures here?

Such air masses modify quite a bit before they reach this region. Even a direct shot of the cold air mass would not yield the same kind of result at this time of year, as the Yukon is still covered by snow, but most of the CONUS and southern Canada is not.

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 not coincidentally I haven't had any allergies yet this year!

screw it all, I'm 100% in favor of human climate manipulation, saves millions of lives and saves people from getting allergies.

Good morning, Liberty. As an extreme ‘S/F’ example; if we could draw from the rising oceans to allow gentle, evenly spaced, rains to fall across the Sahara, turning it into that continents bread basket .....  how would that effect the rest of the planets dominoes? As always .....

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 is always a tough act to follow since it was so much warmer than all the other summers. While last summer was our 2nd warmest, it was almost a full degree cooler than 2010. The spring of 2010 was warm throughout with our last April 90s.

NY Coastal climate division 4

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.4°F	125	2.7°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F

Good memories!  I figured summers like 1966, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, etc would all have been warmer than last summer because I remember them for the amazing amount of 90 degrees days they had

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such air masses modify quite a bit before they reach this region. Even a direct shot of the cold air mass would not yield the same kind of result at this time of year, as the Yukon is still covered by snow, but most of the CONUS and southern Canada is not.

Yes and it seems like even in the middle of winter we only get modified arctic shots rather than direct discharges from the north

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

It will be mostly cloudy with some rain today. It will also be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder.

I see highs on Friday may also be low, topping out in the 40s.

[MJO812]

46 here now in Brooklyn NY

Autumn morning 

[SnoSki14]

Nice area of showers over the area and 45F. 

I'd be surprised if we get out of the 40s today.

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(45/58), or about -2.0.

Month to date is  53.0(+3.3).       Should be about  52.5[+1.5] by the 20th.

All models have 4" to 6" of rain over the next 10 days.       37/45 seems to be the range at the time possible snow may occur.       But the nutty CMC has 31* out on the 21st.!

48*(87%RH) here at 6am, drizzle.

Looks like the coldest of this period (4/10 - 4/25) is setting up to be 4/15-16 and then again 4/19 - 4/21.  It still would not surprise me to get on the warmer side of the as the trough pulls out for a period in the 4/26 - 4/30 period and end the month warm.  it doesnt look sustained but a quick 2-3 day warmup may still evolve before May.  

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 not coincidentally I haven't had any allergies yet this year!

screw it all, I'm 100% in favor of human climate manipulation, saves millions of lives and saves people from getting allergies.

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I see highs on Friday may also be low, topping out in the 40s.

That looks fairly likely right now. Some of the guidance is really cold relative to the season for Friday. Some snow in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and across parts of New England is also a possibility.

[FPizz]

47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

Yeah, mine, which have been pretty good for a decade+ now, have been worse this year than usual.  

[uncle W]

the planet is fine especially if we get rid of people...

[crossbowftw3]

Midday GFS beginning to really show a far more plausible scenario when it comes to snow distribution for a storm this late:

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

I guess my allergies are a result of something else then, I always find the rain and high humidity makes my allergies intolerable, so dry and rainless is perfect for me.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Looks like the coldest of this period (4/10 - 4/25) is setting up to be 4/15-16 and then again 4/19 - 4/21.  It still would not surprise me to get on the warmer side of the as the trough pulls out for a period in the 4/26 - 4/30 period and end the month warm.  it doesnt look sustained but a quick 2-3 day warmup may still evolve before May.  

Looks like accumulating snow in the Poconos

[dave0176]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, mine, which have been pretty good for a decade+ now, have been worse this year than usual.  

My spring allergies have been terrible since the early 2000s as soon as buds appear and by leaf out I’m on prescribed meds. The last few years it’s seems to been waning a bit I’m on meds for much shorter of a time. This year so far I’ve got nothing.