April 2021

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusual combination of strong south based block and UL east of New England. This produced the near all-time record low relative humidity values in the single digits. So the very dry downslope flow really warmed up as it reached the coast.

Early outlook- do you think we will see  a lot of this during the summer with heat and dryness?

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the sunny blue sky weather is gone for an extended period

Still mostly sunny skies this morning.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still mostly sunny skies this morning.

There are some areas that are partly to mostly sunny, but the satellite imagery and guidance aren’t very encouraging especially for later this afternoon and onward.

[bluewave]

Very sharp temperature gradient along the warm front on Sunday. Not much distance between 50s and onshore flow and 70s with warm SW winds. Hopefully, the stalled out front will produce much needed rains for the spring gardens.

 

 

[sferic]

Piqued my interest for next week.

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash any thoughts?

[sferic]

A week from today, imagine if the GFS verified?

[crossbowftw3]

53 minutes ago, sferic said:

Piqued my interest for next week.

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash any thoughts?

not overly likely with snow falling into 33-34 degree air, but then again I did say that before the snow event last April. Got 2.5" of slop here and wouldn't be shocked if something similar did happen.

[CIK62]

And this they call the "new improved version" of the GFS:

[bluewave]

Reaching 80°+ in March seems to increase the chances of April having a lower monthly maximum temperature than March. This is what happened last year. If we can pull it off again, then it would be the first 2 years in a row with a March monthly maximum temperature higher than April since 88-89 at Newark.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Apr	Season
1945	89	84	89
1998	86	74	86
1990	86	94	94
2021	84	71	84
1985	84	89	89
1977	84	90	90
1989	83	79	83
1986	83	80	83
2016	82	83	83
1938	82	89	89
2020	80	69	80
2011	80	87	87
2007	80	86	86
1962	80	90	90
1946	80	78	80

 

1989	83	79	83
1988	77	74	77

[uofmiami]

51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

And this they call the "new improved version" of the GFS:

Looks like a WxBell issue.  Here is the meteogram from Weathermodels.com:

 

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, sferic said:

A week from today, imagine if the GFS verified?

Please no

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s in much of the region.

Meanwhile, across northern New England, upstate New York, and Quebec, near record and record warm temperatures were recorded. Today's high temperatures included:

Bangor: 71° (old record: 68°, 1945)
Burlington: 76° (tied record set in 1945)
Caribou: 69°
Concord: 72°
Montreal: 76° (old record: 74°, 1945)
Plattsburgh, NY: 73° (old record: 67°, 1981 and 2002)
Quebec City: 64° (old record: 53°, 1993)
Saranac Lake, NY: 72°
Sept-Îles, QC: 56° (old record: 54°, 1961)
Sherbrooke, QC: 73° (old record: 63°, 2008)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 72° (old record: 54°, 2002)

A warm front will try to push across the region this weekend. However, it will likely stall within 50 miles of New York City and Newark. As a result, New York City and Newark will likely see mainly cloudy skies this weekend, along with a period of rain. Sunday could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. A thundershower cannot be ruled out.

An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.223 today.

On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

Days 11-15 and 16-20 both look like this and are colder than the so called wet snow of the 16th, which is already gone on the 18Z.        Back on May 09, 1977, at about 7:30am, I saw huge snowflakes falling as my F Train was passing through the Smith & 9th. St. elevated station.         By the time I got to the City and out onto the street it was already over.       The 500mb heights in the Low overhead were 5275m, according to the historical map I just looked at.

 

[jm1220]

10 hours ago, sferic said:

A week from today, imagine if the GFS verified?

That won't verify, but a few days or more of crap marine layer on easterly winds most likely will. From the looks of it, hope everybody enjoyed the glorious weather this week because it looks to be garbage for quite some time in this blocky pattern. 

[jm1220]

On another note, just saw that Bangor ME has 35.7" seasonal snow this year, 3" less than Central Park. Portland ME has 41.0" which is about what my backyard has. That's insane-roughly equivalent to Albany or Worcester coming in less than us (I think happened in 2015-16 super Nino and driven by the Nino fueled 1/23/16 megastorm). This winter seemed to have big winners and losers. Our area to much of eastern PA obviously the big winner, and NNE the big loser. Also big cutoff SW of us which is becoming more typical-12" at Dulles for the season despite averaging almost double that there. Goes to show how much we REALLY lucked out this season, some minor tweaks and this would've been another disaster "winter". 

Boston just 0.1" under Central Park, have to  at that. Not so rare they come in less than NYC but it's maybe 1-2x per decade recently. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.(45/55)., or -3.0.

Month to date is  52.3[+2.9].       Should be 51.2[a little AN] by the 18th.

Rain has moved to the 15th. to the 17th. period.        Very little before the 15th. now.

Had quick lite shower yesterday about 4:30pm.       Street looks wet this AM.

BTW:    CI rides etc. are open starting yesterday, supposedly by reservation.       The Cyclone has been running with a full train, among other rides.      Open now but ground fog comes and goes blocking my view.

52*(87%RH) here at 6am.    (was 49* at 2am)   55* by 9am with breaks of sun.       57* at 10am.         59* by Noon.        Back to 57* with ground level fog at 1pm.         56* at 2pm.       60* at 3pm.        62* at 4pm.   (fog behaving and staying over water last 90mins.         54* at 9pm and FOG has totally taken over.

[bluewave]

Today will probably be our warmest for a while as we are heading into more of an onshore flow pattern. The good news is that we will get some much needed rain on Sunday. Then there will be chances for showers at times as a backdoor/ warm front stalls out near the area. Longer range, the models all agree on more of a +PNA /-EPO for mid-April. 

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/10/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17 CLIMO
 X/N  68| 56  62| 49  53| 45  56| 45  52| 41  53| 40  56| 41  63 42 61

 

[SnoSki14]

Given the upcoming pattern it seems very unlikely max temps top what we saw in March. 

We may have to wait another month or more before 80s show up again.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 7:48, a developing line of showers stretched from south of Breezy Point to just north of Bedford Hills. That line of showers will head eastward across Long Island and Connecticut over the next hour. Overall, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, where there should be somewhat more sunshine, will likely see temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 72°

A period of rain is likely tonight and tomorrow.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

At 7:48, a developing line of showers stretched from south of Breezy Point to just north of Bedford Hills. That line of showers will head eastward across Long Island and Connecticut over the next hour. Overall, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, where there should be somewhat more sunshine, will likely see temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 72°

A period of rain is likely tonight and tomorrow.

looks like the sun is trying to come out here

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Reaching 80°+ in March seems to increase the chances of April having a lower monthly maximum temperature than March. This is what happened last year. If we can pull it off again, then it would be the first 2 years in a row with a March monthly maximum temperature higher than April since 88-89 at Newark.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Apr	Season
1945	89	84	89
1998	86	74	86
1990	86	94	94
2021	84	71	84
1985	84	89	89
1977	84	90	90
1989	83	79	83
1986	83	80	83
2016	82	83	83
1938	82	89	89
2020	80	69	80
2011	80	87	87
2007	80	86	86
1962	80	90	90
1946	80	78	80

 

1989	83	79	83
1988	77	74	77

1990 was awesome lol, how come 2012 isn't on this list?

also noteworthy is that this area hadn't seen 80 degrees in March since 1998, which was not as awesome as 1990 was.

 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1990 was awesome lol, how come 2012 isn't on this list?

also noteworthy is that this area hadn't seen 80 degrees in March since 1998, which was not as awesome as 1990 was.

 

The 80°+ heat went to our west in March 2012. This was the 2nd March in a row to reach 80° at Newark. I posted a while back how the first 80° of the season has moved up nearly 1 month at Newark since 1970. But the first 90° of the season remains unchanged. This is why Newark only made it to 90° once in April since 2010. While at the same time, 4 years reached 80° in March.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	84	0
2020	80	0
2019	77	0
2018	62	0
2017	73	0
2016	82	0
2015	64	0
2014	67	0
2013	61	0
2012	79	0
2011	80	0
2010	75	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2021	71	21
2020	69	0
2019	80	0
2018	84	0
2017	87	0
2016	83	0
2015	82	0
2014	83	0
2013	85	0
2012	88	0
2011	87	0
2010	92	0

[Ericjcrash]

20 hours ago, sferic said:

Piqued my interest for next week.

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash any thoughts?

I'm too far north now with no elevation. 

[STORMANLI]

Hicksville quick 0.16" in < 20 mins around  9am.

Commack 0.02" and seeing lots of blue skies 10am.

[bluewave]

Not that the La Niña had much influence on our winter, but the very impressive WWB will really warm the ENSO regions in the coming weeks. Hard to say whether this major WWB event will kick off another El Niño. It’s possible that it could just get us back to neutral without any follow up WWBs. Long range ENSO forecasting is very uncertain during the spring forecast barrier.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

looks like the sun is trying to come out here

 

There may be some breaks in the clouds. I had a short period of sunshine.

[STORMANLI]

Yes, more sun than originally thought there would be.

[Cfa]

It’s been sunny for nearly 2 hours so far, wasn’t expecting that at all today.

Temp up to 63 now.

[psv88]

Beautiful out. Sunny and 64

[Brian5671]

Busting warm again....