wdrag Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Final steps into a full bloom spring. Is it normally convective or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 Figured we better start April, the way the GFS/GEFS is barking an April Fools snow joke on parts of the interior northeast. Will it happen? Can change the tags to more appropriate prompts if you wish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 It's quite possible for some kind of snow to happen here on April Fool's and the following day. Widespread event as the models today have them? Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 EC tucked in west fringe of our area, GFS so far, further east but inconsistent. GGEM mostly won our area. EPS is heavier into the subforum but that could be because of the aberrant 12z/26 EC which has 2ft+ up in the Adirondacks. We are going into a strong-NAO. Late season. Can it develop far enough south to be a factor in the NYC subforum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 NYC's coldest snowiest first ten days of April since 1950... 1950 had more cold with two inches of snow after the 10th...other years with one cold day or one light snowfall I left out...1982 has the greatest April wintry period... 1950............................................. dates...max min precip snow depth 01........48....32......0.......0.......0 02........57....46....0.01....0.......0 03........63....48......T.......0.......0 04........76....46....0.02....0.......0 05........63....44....0.06....0.......0 06........48....31....0.13....0.......0 07........50....27.......0......0.......0 08........55....32.......0......0.......0 09........46....27....0.05....T.......0 10........57....29.......0......0.......0 1954............................................. 01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T 02........55....36.......0......0.......0 03........49....24.......0......0.......0 04........43....23.......0......0.......0 05........43....33.......T......T.......0 06........64....43....0.01....0.......0 07........74....53.......T......0.......0 08........77....43....0.17....0.......0 09........56....35.......0......0.......0 10........53....39.......0......0.......0 1956.................................................... 01........52....33.......0......0.......0 02........48....37.......0......0.......0 03........50....40.......T......0.......0 04........51....43....0.01....0.......0 05........66....46.......0......0.......0 06........65....46....0.13....0.......0 07........46....37....0.75....0.......0 08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3 09........52....34.......0......0.......1 10........57....36.......0......0.......0 1957........................................................ 01........59....39....0.02....0.......0 02........62....41....0.78....0.......0 03........50....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2 05........58....34....0.77....0.......0 06........58....44....0.25....0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........50....37....0.31....0.......0 09........45....34....0.15....T.......0 10........51....35.......0......0.......0 1972..................................................... 01........58....41.......0......0.......0 02........54....39....0.13....T.......0 03........48....36.......0......0.......0 04........42....38....0.31....0.......0 05........54....32.......0......0.......0 06........62....42.......0......0.......0 07........42....28....0.03....T.......T 08........43....26.......T......T.......0 09........51....29.......0......0.......0 10........54....37.......0......0.......0 1975....................................................... 01........67....40.......0......0.......0 02........54....37.......0......0.......0 03........55....33....1.02....0.......0 04........37....27.......0......0.......0 05........41....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....30.......0......0.......0 07........47....29.......0......0.......0 08........47....31.......T......T.......0 09........52....33.......0......0.......0 10........58....32.......0......0.......0 1982................................................ 01........65....46.......0......0.......0 02........58....36.......0......0.......0 03........56....43....1.86....0.......0 04........52....32.......T......T.......0 05........48....27.......0......0.......0 06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3 07........30....21.......0......0.......9 08........43....25.......0......0.......6 09........39....34.......T......T.......3 10........53....34.......0......0.......2 1995....................................................... 01........55....37.......0......0.......0 02........49....35.......0......0.......0 03........56....34.......0......0.......0 04........68....28....0.04....0.......0 05........39....23.......0......0.......0 06........49....28.......0......0.......0 07........61....43.......0......0.......0 08........44....39....0.14....T.......0 09........68....41....0.56....0.......0 10........56....34.......T......0.......0 2003........................................................ 01........43....30....0.11....T.......0 02........57....39.......T......0.......0 03........54....40.......0......0.......0 04........44....35.......0......0.......0 05........43....35.......0......0.......0 06........47....33.......0......0.......0 07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1 08........37....31.......0......0.......3 09........39....35....0.30....0.......1 10........52....36.......0......0.......0 2007................................................ 01........50....42....0.06....0.......0 02........56....42....0.06....0.......0 03........63....42.......0......0.......0 04........42....40....0.85....0.......0 05........44....34.......T......T.......0 06........42....31.......T......T.......0 07........43....31.......0......0.......0 08........41....30.......0......0.......0 09........49....32.......0......0.......0 10........51....33.......0......0.......0 2012.................................................. 01........41....37....0.13.....0.......0 02........42....33....0.16.....0,,,,,,,0 03........56....42....0.12.....0.......0 04........45....36........0......0.......0 05........44....28........0......0.......0 06........44....25........0......0.......0 07........62....37........0......0.......0 08........71....53........0......0.......0 09........64....37....0.02.....0.......0 10........43....29........0......0.......0 2016................................................ 01........79....61....0.02.....0.......0 02........61....49....0.16.....0.......0 03........50....34....0.09.....T.......0 04........45....29....0.47.....T.......0 05........43....26........0......0.......0 06........48....30........0......0.......0 07........58....48....0.09.....0.......0 08........50....40....0.01.....0.......0 09........43....36....0.11.....T.......0 10........50....31........0......0.......0 ......................................................... 2018.... 01...….60....43...….0......0...….0 02...….43....33....0.59...5.5......3 03...….43....39....0.26.....0...….0 04...….56....40....0.04.....0...….0 05...….45....34...….0......0...….0 06...….62....37....0.11.....0...….0 07...….49....37...….0......0...….0 08...….46....32...….0......0...….0 09...….49....32...,...T......0...….0 10...….51....38....0.01....0...…..0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 1996 should be on this list...... nearly 5" at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Today's model runs correcting back to a much more feasible scenario for late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Definitely something to keep an eye on here in the Catskills for next Thursday/Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First 80° Value Next Freeze Value 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Friday looks to be 40+ degrees colder than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First 80° Value Next Freeze Value 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26 Whats the highest temp we've had prior to a measurable snow? Would that be in 1990? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, wdrag said: Thanks for all! Added the LSR's for SVR- see axis Mid-Atlantic to w LI, and the wind advisory LSR reports vicinity I90 northward (NYS-MA) and then the OKX graphic of max wind gusts today. That should be the wrap on this short fused topic. Not doing anything on snow for 4/1-2, unless there is a marked change eastward toward NYC (beyond the NAM). Probably good to continue snow conversation in the April topic. only UKMet has much of anything and even that doesn't get snow close to NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash Today's thoughts? I'm seeing 1-3 for Liberty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash Today's thoughts? I'm seeing 1-3 for Liberty. pretty reasonable guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 22 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: only UKMet has much of anything and even that doesn't get snow close to NYC Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on Time for weenie posts like "this hurricane will hit NYC" or "this line of T-storms will hold together and crush us" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash 18z NAM much better! agreed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 48 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash 18z NAM much better! agreed? I'd really wanna be NW of liberty. Delhi even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 49 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash 18z NAM much better! agreed? Still possible but CNY is all but locked in for a more significant snow. If we get lucky we can see 2-5” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: Still possible but CNY is all but locked in for a more significant snow. If we get lucky we can see 2-5” here YUP, WBGM TV 12 CBS from Binghamton had ALL of Sullivan in 2-5. Do you get Channel 12 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'd really wanna be NW of liberty. Delhi even If they low is more south and east would more sig snows follow suit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 minute ago, sferic said: If they low is more south and east would more sig snows follow suit ? If the low was further SE that’s how we get into the 2-5” range for snows here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I'd really wanna be NW of liberty. Delhi even Preferably even closer to Syracuse. They’ll get smacked up there. Pretty high ratios for them too at up to 14:1 (after the initial transition being closer to 4-5:1) so snow growth should be very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash @snywx 00z GFS wow if it verifies, big if Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on not that different from 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 9 hours ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash 18z NAM much better! agreed? I see that 5.5 very close to my other house in the Poconos. I can watch the Yankees home opener there and snow falling at the same time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 10 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Time for weenie posts like "this hurricane will hit NYC" or "this line of T-storms will hold together and crush us" only problem is the former seem to be happening more and more frequently. Based on the SST patterns, we could get hit by the tropics again this year. Depends on how strong the SE Ridge is, if it's really strong than the SST wont matter because it still steer TC to our SW. Looking at 11 yr patterns 1944, 1955, and 1999 all had east coast major hits. Based on a really strong SE Ridge this summer, I'd look for late season hits September and maybe even later, rather than the early season ones we saw last summer. The above 11 yr patterns were like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: only problem is the former seem to be happening more and more frequently. Based on the SST patterns, we could get hit by the tropics again this year. Depends on how strong the SE Ridge is, if it's really strong than the SST wont matter because it still steer TC to our SW. Looking at 11 yr patterns 1944, 1955, and 1999 all had east coast major hits. Based on a really strong SE Ridge this summer, I'd look for late season hits September and maybe even later, rather than the early season ones we saw last summer. The above 11 yr patterns were like that. I've noticed past several summers, maybe even a decade, that forecasted summer squall lines do not hold up that well here, exception for the May 2019 line that spun a tornado a few miles away and knocked out my power for days. Other than that, I get my worst thunderstorms in the "popcorn" scenario. The previous years of cyclone tracks is worrisome. Unless something major changes in Atlantic, kind of hard to bet against the same tracks as past couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 7 hours ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash @snywx 00z GFS wow if it verifies, big if Comments? 6z came back west also I doubt you get 6” of snow when considering this is happening in the morning. Gotta account for sun angle killing ratios. Even if you get moderate snow for 4 hours or so. You need some impressive rates for this time of year to make it stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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