wdrag Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The tag features the damaging wind in the dry air, especially mid-late Friday afternoon at the warmest time of the day. The severe tag is low risk (Marginal part of the area as per SPC D2 outlook). There should be bands of heavy showers, isolated embedded thunderstorms, moving east northeast across the area between 5A-2P, but the inverted or isothermal sounding should limit transfer of gusts during the morning. However, he last possible line along the cold front midday-early Friday afternoon might allow for isolated SVR as the sounding becomes more unstable to the surface? Please add Friday guidance and reports for Friday's event to this thread, keeping OBS and NOWcast embedded within this thread as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Good news here is that the winds probably don’t last more than six hours at maximum in any given location advisories more probable for the NYC area with HWWs in the typical favored locations near the lakes I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The strongest winds may actually be more inland tomorrow. WA now up. It wouldn't surprise me if they upped it to a HWW as we should get very strong mixing with the 80F highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Looks like peak gust potential to around 60mph with the cold front on Friday. High temperatures usually beat guidance in these situations. So the warm spots in NJ may may get close to 80°. This will set up very steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing to 800MB or higher. 70s could easily push out to Long Island as the flow becomes WSW allowing deep mixing there also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Unsurprisingly advisories have just been populated areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 342 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeastern New York. * WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Some max gusts to 60 or so are probable and if any HWWs get hoisted it comes down to where best mixing is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Thanks for the added info, all! I see the WA as the more common thread, but am definitely interested in damaging wind 50KT. Seems as if mixing forecasts have slightly lowered a bit in todays cycles. Think virtually all the area is good for a 40-45kt gusts with the typically sheltered tree loaded areas less, but hilltop crowns may do very well. Has to get into the 70s to make this work well. Will convert this to an OBS-NOWcast thread Friday around 630A. Will not be posting 7A-3P tomorrow. Thanks again, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Also have a Gale Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Western PA gusting to near 60 mph. PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHEN,PA (AGC) ASOS reports gust of 50 knots (57.5 mph) from SW @ 1326Z -- KAGC 261353Z AUTO 24026G46KT 10SM BKN043 16/07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23050/1326 SLP075 T01560067 JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA,PA (JST) ASOS reports gust of 54 knots (62.1 mph) from SW @ 1426Z -- KJST 261454Z AUTO 26027G38KT 10SM BKN038 OVC048 14/05 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 23054/1426 SLP074 T01440050 53028 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Getting some gusts above 40 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Newark has sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to 54 mph. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 83 45 26 W40G54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 Wantage NJ this 740' location. Seldom do i exceed 45 MPH in these situations but just hit 47 at 308P 75/54. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 82 here in Brooklyn Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 81 here in yonkers, gusty winds 30-40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 From 73° to 80° in 7 minutes along with wind gust of 45 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Gusting around 40-45 mph in Lindenhurst right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Peak gusts so far in the 56 to 59 mph range. Monmouth County... Port Monmouth 56 MPH 0346 PM 03/26 CWOP NJWXNET ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 59 MPH 0355 PM 03/26 NJWXNET Ocean County... Mantoloking 57 MPH 0442 PM 03/26 WXFLOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Nearby mesonet has gusted to 52 mph a couple times this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Republic airport in farmingdale gusted to 51 mph at the latest hourly observation, we probably have peaked at around 50-55 mph here in Lindenhurst as well, judging by how strong the wind seems. I live right under the flight path to one of the runways at Republic and there have been quite a few go arounds today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 NYC airport, JFK, LGA, EWR all in the range of 45-51kt the past 90 minutes. Added this from 257PM. Strongest winds were west of Apps but imo, the NAM HRRR sounding was maybe grabbing 5 kt too much. Multiple other models were more conservative including applying the Richardson # to the 3KNAM which hesitated to get more than 900MB. Not an A thread for sure, but its'still cranking til maybe 9 or 10P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 29 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Republic airport in farmingdale gusted to 51 mph at the latest hourly observation, we probably have peaked at around 50-55 mph here in Lindenhurst as well, judging by how strong the wind seems. I live right under the flight path to one of the runways at Republic and there have been quite a few go arounds today I believe it. Trees swaying a good bit the last few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Winds caused siding which was already coming off my house to rip off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 8 hours ago, doncat said: Nearby mesonet has gusted to 52 mph a couple times this afternoon. Was this some odd kind of heat burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport 51 MPH 0501 PM 03/26 CWOP Norwalk 49 MPH 0513 PM 03/26 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 47 MPH 0617 PM 03/26 ASOS Danbury Airport 46 MPH 0322 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Haven County... New Haven 63 MPH 0628 PM 03/26 CWOP Lighthouse Point 52 MPH 0648 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Meriden Airport 45 MPH 0554 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Old Tappan 51 MPH 0143 AM 03/26 CWOP Fair Lawn 49 MPH 0535 PM 03/26 CWOP Teterboro Airport 49 MPH 0559 PM 03/26 ASOS Oakland 45 MPH 0305 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Essex County... Caldwell 48 MPH 0520 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Union County... Newark Airport 59 MPH 0612 PM 03/26 ASOS Linden Airport 48 MPH 0615 PM 03/26 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 50 MPH 0400 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 50 MPH 0320 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Nassau County... Bayville 59 MPH 0541 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (45 feet) Carle Place 55 MPH 1050 AM 03/26 CWOP Wantagh 50 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 NYSM ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 49 MPH 0645 PM 03/26 NYSM Washington Heights 45 MPH 0925 PM 03/26 AWS ...Orange County... Stewart Airport 54 MPH 0445 PM 03/26 AWOS Warwick 50 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM Montgomery Airport 47 MPH 0334 PM 03/26 AWOS ...Queens County... Kew Garden Hills 56 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM NYC/La Guardia 53 MPH 0647 PM 03/26 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 52 MPH 0640 PM 03/26 ASOS Jackson Heights 46 MPH 0419 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 52 MPH 0418 PM 03/26 NDBC College of Staten Island 51 MPH 0630 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 67 MPH 0856 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (71 feet) Stony Brook 65 MPH 0457 PM 03/26 CWOP (159 feet) Farmingdale Airport 53 MPH 0503 PM 03/26 ASOS Westhampton Airport 52 MPH 0734 PM 03/26 ASOS Islip Airport 49 MPH 0531 PM 03/26 ASOS Ridge 49 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 46 MPH 0701 PM 03/26 CWOP Great South Bay 45 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 WXFLOW ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 52 MPH 0338 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Croton 49 MPH 0528 PM 03/26 WXFLOW White Plains Airport 46 MPH 0515 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Connecticut... ...Maritime Stations... 1 ESE Norwalk 51 MPH 0827 PM 03/26 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 48 MPH 0518 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS ...New Jersey... Jersey City 48 MPH 0428 PM 03/26 CWOP ...New York... Robbins Reef, NJ 62 MPH 0242 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS Larchmont Harbor 55 MPH 0543 PM 03/26 WXFLOW City Island 51 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 CWOP Fire Island CG 51 MPH 0711 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Kings Point 50 MPH 0606 PM 03/26 NOS-NWLON Point O Woods YC 47 MPH 0834 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Shinnecock 47 MPH 0829 PM 03/26 WXFLOW && 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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