Chicago Storm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Catch-all severe and wind thread... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Nam 3km with a 984 low in Indiana. In line with the euro. The winds are going to crank tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 00z NAM/HRRR came in deeper than before. The NAM actually has a band of 65-70 kt winds at 925 mb around Lake Michigan, but mixing looks fairly poor at that time and even 925 mb would probably have some trouble mixing down. Along/south of the surface low track, mixing looks better for a time to potentially tap into freakishly strong wind fields. Not sure yet what the magnitude of this will turn out to be, but there is potential for it to be more than your run of the mill 55-60 mph high wind event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Models have been hit or miss giving us snow with the storm. But if the column cools enough the dynamics of the system should allow for rates heavy enough to accumulate nicely. Sneaky chance at some snow cover when we wake up Friday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM/HRRR came in deeper than before. The NAM actually has a band of 65-70 kt winds at 925 mb around Lake Michigan, but mixing looks fairly poor at that time and even 925 mb would probably have some trouble mixing down. Along/south of the surface low track, mixing looks better for a time to potentially tap into freakishly strong wind fields. Not sure yet what the magnitude of this will turn out to be, but there is potential for it to be more than your run of the mill 55-60 mph high wind event. Could be wide spread power outages if mixing verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 RAP drops over 2" of rain here with some models only about 1/3". That wind event looks pretty serious tomorrow evening from IN into OH. Multiple models all showing a compact, yet very high end wind event. Looks like 60mph should be breached quite easily along wherever that swath sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 This could have been a pretty high end snowstorm for Chicago/northern IL if this would have happened several weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z Euro The surface low drops 11 mb in 6 hours on that run... between 00z and 06z. This map is very impressive to see at 925 mb. As mentioned, likely to be a shallow mixing environment north of the surface low, but one thing I am wondering is if some of that depicted heavier precip could try to mix it down. If it does, look out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: RAP drops over 2" of rain here with some models only about 1/3". That wind event looks pretty serious tomorrow evening from IN into OH. Multiple models all showing a compact, yet very high end wind event. Looks like 60mph should be breached quite easily along wherever that swath sets up. 10z RAP drops 0.03" here now lol. Looks like mostly a whiff southeast with the heavier rains like most models have been showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 and of course after I post last night things trend toward a whiff SE here. Will be lucky to get any precip with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 65+ or bust lake levels noticeably down visually from earlier peaks but this should still be damaging in prone areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Latest runs have a weaker surface low. Won't be surprised if the 12z Euro is weaker than 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Latest runs have a weaker surface low. Won't be surprised if the 12z Euro is weaker than 00z.There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk What did the 06z Euro get it down to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 What did the 06z Euro get it down to?988 mb, vs. 982 mb for the 00z run. The ensemble mean was 992 mb on the 06z run and 990 mb on the 00z runSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The HRRR is really fading this system for Chicagoland. It's down to just a bit of light rain for many. It actually has more rain falling over here than Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Looks like a nice slug of rain for my area. Was kind of wondering when we would see this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 One of the few High Wind Watches/Warnings I've ever issued. Momentum transfer numbers from the 00Z 3/24 GFS showed values I don't think I'd seen before (61kt at Muncie). Last night's numbers were lower, but still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Won't be surprised if the 12z Euro is weaker than 00z. 12z is 10 mb weaker at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 And this is why I'm happy this storm is taking place now and not when a foot of snow could have been on the line. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: And this is why I'm happy this storm is taking place now and not when a foot of snow could have been on the line. Lol. Imagine how annoying this would be to watch slip away if it were snow......it’d be meltdown central in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 Guidance did terribly with this storm system, which obviously had an affect on the severe t'storm risk for a large area...and will have an affect on the wind/rain aspects for many areas as well. As others mentioned above, the Euro was particularly bad... The 0z run had a 981MB SLP in NW IN tonight, while the new 18z run has a 992mb SLP in NW OH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Guidance did terribly with this storm system, which obviously had an affect on the severe t'storm risk for a large area...and will have an affect on the wind/rain aspects for many areas as well. As others mentioned above, the Euro was particularly bad... The 0z run had a 981MB SLP in NW IN tonight, while the new 18z run has a 992mb SLP in NW OH. Whatever happened to "The King"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 It is very difficult to get a low 980s surface low in northwest IN. I can probably count on one hand how many times I know of it happening over the course of many decades. Usually it will end up farther north or not deepen quickly enough to get to that. You'd like to think the Euro knows what it's doing at only about 24 hours out, but caution was warranted given the rarity of what was depicted in addition to tepid model support for something that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 26, 2021 Author Share Posted March 26, 2021 On 3/25/2021 at 8:32 PM, Hoosier said: It is very difficult to get a low 980s surface low in northwest IN. I can probably count on one hand how many times I know of it happening over the course of many decades. Usually it will end up farther north or not deepen quickly enough to get to that. You'd like to think the Euro knows what it's doing at only about 24 hours out, but caution was warranted given the rarity of what was depicted in addition to tepid model support for something that deep. Kudos to the RGEM/GEM, which were generally weaker/east most runs leading into today. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Small world, a friend of mine's brother lives in one of the neighborhoods in the Burning Ham burbs that got hit by a tornado. This was taken by his doorbell cam. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 Picked up 0.35" of rain this evening. Grass has really started greening up the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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