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Southern Sanitarium


buckeyefan1
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I knew it would likely happen but I’m still amazed how models really struggle in that ~ 5 day range. Everyone was cliff diving as each run went further and further away from the previous good runs for several days. I’ve noticed with a lot of our bigger storms over the years the 7+ day model runs are actually pretty dang good at picking up everything. Then around day 5 they really struggle with all aspects of the storm or lose the storm and it’s looking like this is again the case. We’ve gradually trended better and better since that day 5 melt down. The one I’ll never forget and the most vivid instance of this for me was the Christmas 2010 storm. Played out the same way. Moral of the story, don’t throw your towels in on day 4-5.

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3 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

I knew it would likely happen but I’m still amazed how models really struggle in that ~ 5 day range. Everyone was cliff diving as each run went further and further away from the previous good runs for several days. I’ve noticed with a lot of our bigger storms over the years the 7+ day model runs are actually pretty dang good at picking up everything. Then around day 5 they really struggle with all aspects of the storm or lose the storm and it’s looking like this is again the case. We’ve gradually trended better and better since that day 5 melt down. The one I’ll never forget and the most vivid instance of this for me was the Christmas 2010 storm. Played out the same way. Moral of the story, don’t throw your towels in on day 4-5.

I have noticed the models do seem to do this back and forth dance often when we have a legit winter storm threat. 

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50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think some folks are hung up on wanting huge snow totals and not thinking how big of an impact 3 to 5 inches of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will have. 

Which will all be wiped clean when we go to 40 and rain. I am not sure we will see 3-5 inches either before the mix.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man apparently my ripe age of 34 is starting to affect my memory. I do remember 2018 but if I remember we got like 9” out here in Salem. Well hopefully you live close by because from my house out that way the stretch on 81 would be insane to try and make the journey going up into the mountains 

I don't live too far from the office, but will be an interesting ride. If I can make it out of the neighborhood to 460 I think I should be ok.

If I had to commute from Roanoke I don't think I'd make it up Christiansburg Mountain.

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