Avdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, PantherJustin said: Well atleast we can hope this thing bust Tomm too… would be hilarious if All of New England got like 6-8” the meltdown would be hilarious Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 As expected we ended up with a flizzard in Raleigh. No accumulation. We are 1 for 3. Good year for Virginia Beach though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Is it football season yet? My god UNC can’t miss what an absolute beating man. Onto the next congrats UNC tip your hat, they’d beat the Lakers shooting like this just their day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Has Brad P. done that thing where he calculates long range "fantasy snow"? I can imagine it's gonna be incredibly high this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 In other news... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: 4 in a row? I found the numbers and crunched them. The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches. The median is only 2.5 inches. So we are already above the median. 60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean. And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean. 2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 hours ago, Avdave said: Your infatuation with New England getting screwed is really bizarre. Not sure why all the hate for a region because they are in a much colder climo and in a good location for snows. Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes. It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Some people seem to get as much or maybe more more joy from others failing to get snow than from their own successes. It is actually quote a common attitude I have found, although I don't understand it myself. I have def noticed it more so lately. I dont understand it. Its just snow as yes I love it but Im not going to wish anyone else that they get shut out whether they are in Florence, SC or Bangor, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: I found the numbers and crunched them. The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches. The median is only 2.5 inches. So we are already above the median. 60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean. And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean. 2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 " The average is 6 inches period. We are currently at half that. If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. No other way to spin it really. Still plenty of time no doubt but will we get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: The average is 6 inches period. We are currently at half that. If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. No other way to spin it really. Still plenty of time no doubt but will we get there? Who cares? No amount of b'ing and moaning is going to change the weather, lol. Just enjoy what comes when it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: The average is 6 inches period. The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace. 12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary. Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995) Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008) Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999) Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace. That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary. Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995) Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008) Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999) Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback. Just sayin'. It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations. And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode. Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively. If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches. Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches. I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability. While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule. Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter. Anything else is gravy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 hours ago, calculus1 said: Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback. Just sayin'. It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations. And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode. Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively. If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches. Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches. I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability. While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule. Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter. Anything else is gravy. This settles it. You can’t argue with a guy who’s very name is math I don’t understand. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 WE WANT BRICK!!!! WE WANT BRICK!!!! WE WANT BRICK!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If the GFS verifies … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Man some are grasping lol, posting maps that snow a half inch. Big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 These southern sliders …. Gross, I mean who won the lotto down in Freaking Cheraw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 10:56 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. Just want to point out that the bolded text is literally how humanity keeps finding itself in terrible situations 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Time to put another fork in this weekends system for most of NC. The GFS has now shit the bed which was obvious given that it’s been on an island for 2 days. I had high hopes for the new GFS but it’s shown that it is mortal after all. On to the next one, hopefully. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 well according to the GFS, I have the biggest snow of the season this weekend (4.8 inches). So Imma sit here until that folds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Bevo said: Just want to point out that the bolded text is literally how humanity keeps finding itself in terrible situations So, not trusting a random person on the internet over experts is why people keep getting into crappy situations. Got ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, AirNelson39 said: Time to put another fork in this weekends system for most of NC. The GFS has now shit the bed which was obvious given that it’s been on an island for 2 days. I had high hopes for the new GFS but it’s shown that it is mortal after all. On to the next one, hopefully. It’s the same pos it’s always been it got an update now it’s just a fancier pos lol I mean im sure this is cool and all for the like 16 ppl that live in Wadesboro and Laurinburg but enough is enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, not trusting a random person on the internet over experts is why people keep getting into crappy situations. Got ya. I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective. There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, Bevo said: I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective. There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you. I will trust the experts until they change their statistical standards. You keep trusting who you want, more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Another winter here with snow totals below 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Another winter here with snow totals below 6 inches. Do you also think your yearly snowfall total is 6"? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 From a Raleigh perspective I can’t hate too much on this winter. We had a good storm and we had sustained cold. Missing out narrowly on several events did stink and having a lot of opportunities and coming away with one real system definitely feels like a waste but it was fun tracking for an entire month and seeing flakes fly numerous times. Always want more but thankful for what we had 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now