Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021

[Ahoff]

This Spring feels quite similar to last spring, overall.  Warm/low snow March, cool/average April, cool May turning seasonable/warmer.  Not sure what it means for the summer, seeing as this winter and last winter were very different.

 

Here's one persons take.

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2021/05/the-2021-summer-outlook-for-northeast.html?fbclid=IwAR0orFXekTkoFKKhdEqLIXduZ7z1FQHK-6qNJN1OfrRrRUQbiXz_IPjeY6k

[TimB]

18 hours ago, Ahoff said:

This Spring feels quite similar to last spring, overall.  Warm/low snow March, cool/average April, cool May turning seasonable/warmer.  Not sure what it means for the summer, seeing as this winter and last winter were very different.

 

Here's one persons take.

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2021/05/the-2021-summer-outlook-for-northeast.html?fbclid=IwAR0orFXekTkoFKKhdEqLIXduZ7z1FQHK-6qNJN1OfrRrRUQbiXz_IPjeY6k

Not liking her comparisons to 1995 and 2020 in particular. Not because I think she’s wrong, but because both were summers from hell. It’s reassuring that she didn’t throw 1988 and 2012 in there too.

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Not liking her comparisons to 1995 and 2020 in particular. Not because I think she’s wrong, but because both were summers from hell. It’s reassuring that she didn’t throw 1988 and 2012 in there too.

I'd like to end that 100 drought, so 1995 is interesting.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I'd like to end that 100 drought, so 1995 is interesting.

I’m not rooting for it, but if we get to July and it starts to look like my options are sweating in 97 degree heat or sweating in 100 degree heat, I might be right there with you cheering it on.

[Ahoff]

Through the first 2 weeks on the month we are currently 7.4 degrees below average.  It will take a major warm up to turn that into a positive.  We have warm weather coming, but will it be enough?

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Through the first 2 weeks on the month we are currently 7.4 degrees below average.  It will take a major warm up to turn that into a positive.  We have warm weather coming, but will it be enough?

My opinion based on a lot of the models is yes, we have a solid shot to finish the month above average. I think the period coming up will be very warm, probably upwards of 85 at least once or twice if not more. There is some indication of a possibility of a cooler period after that, but the GFS waffles on that every single run. That would be almost a carbon copy of the end of last May and cause us to fall a bit short of the averages. Which is incredible that we’re even talking about finishing the month above normal considering the normals for May went up by over a degree and we’re over 7 degrees below the new normal at the halfway point.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

My opinion based on a lot of the models is yes, we have a solid shot to finish the month above average. I think the period coming up will be very warm, probably upwards of 85 at least once or twice if not more. There is some indication of a possibility of a cooler period after that, but the GFS waffles on that every single run. That would be almost a carbon copy of the end of last May and cause us to fall a bit short of the averages. Which is incredible that we’re even talking about finishing the month above normal considering the normals for May went up by over a degree and we’re over 7 degrees below the new normal at the halfway point.

We'll see.  It'll take many days above 80 at this point, as the daily average will continue to increase as well.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

We'll see.  It'll take many days above 80 at this point, as the daily average will continue to increase as well.

Indeed, we probably have to average at least 80/60 the rest of the month to get there. I wouldn’t rule it out, but it really would require no cold air to break through the ridge until we hit June.

[MikeB_01]

NWS forecast for Wed, thurs, fri, sat is 81, 84, 86, and 84. Get the AC ready. Summer is here.


.

[TimB]

18 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

NWS forecast for Wed, thurs, fri, sat is 81, 84, 86, and 84. Get the AC ready. Summer is here.


.

Days upon days of temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s well before May is even over, and lasting well into September is our new normal around here.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Days upon days of temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s well before May is even over, and lasting well into September is our new normal around here.

That's really not all that unusual though.  That's prime time for 80 degree weather.

[Ahoff]

I do wish the upcoming warm would happen for Memorial Day weekend, but it so far looks like more normal temps for the week after this one.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

That's really not all that unusual though.  That's prime time for 80 degree weather.

Warmth has always been here in May and September but I’m thinking more about the humidity - I feel like the 80s in the summer-adjacent months used to be a lot more comfortable with dews in the 40s and 50s. I don’t remember these times being humid periods with dewpoints mostly in the 60s prior to the last few years, but that could be memory being weird.

[Ahoff]

22 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Warmth has always been here in May and September but I’m thinking more about the humidity - I feel like the 80s in the summer-adjacent months used to be a lot more comfortable with dews in the 40s and 50s. I don’t remember these times being humid periods with dewpoints mostly in the 60s prior to the last few years, but that could be memory being weird.

I’m sure there are many times that humidity was high and many times it had been low.  Last June and early July was rather low (relatively) humidity wise, and I’m sure that it just depends on the pattern.

I don’t really remember how humid a summer was unless it was insane that year.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I’m sure there are many times that humidity was high and many times it had been low.  Last June and early July was rather low (relatively) humidity wise, and I’m sure that it just depends on the pattern.

I don’t really remember how humid a summer was unless it was insane that year.

Yeah, my memory of humidity is purely anecdotal. The other thing here is lack of rain. We are currently on day 7 without measurable rainfall, with a solid chance of at least doubling that before our next good chance of rain. I would imagine that’s pretty uncommon in spring.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Yeah, my memory of humidity is purely anecdotal. The other thing here is lack of rain. We are currently on day 7 without measurable rainfall, with a solid chance of at least doubling that before our next good chance of rain. I would imagine that’s pretty uncommon in spring.

Yeah, last Spring was dry too.  I imagine with the next week we may end up on the lower side of average with rain for the month so far.  Kind of interesting we went for two historically wet years to these periods of very dry weather.  I will say, though, I am happy for drier weather.

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, last Spring was dry too.  I imagine with the next week we may end up on the lower side of average with rain for the month so far.  Kind of interesting we went for two historically wet years to these periods of very dry weather.  I will say, though, I am happy for drier weather.

I think we got enough rain last weekend to head off any potential drought concerns as long as this doesn’t persist for too long.

[Ahoff]

45 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I think we got enough rain last weekend to head off any potential drought concerns as long as this doesn’t persist for too long.

Possibly, but as you said earlier we could see another week without rain.  That puts us more than three weeks into the month, with less than ten days left.  We still are 1.5" from our average May rainfall at this point.  We easily could jam 1.5" of rain into 10 days, no problem, but if the drier pattern persists falling short of 1.5" might be possible.  Plus, we are coming off a drier than normal April too.

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Possibly, but as you said earlier we could see another week without rain.  That puts us more than three weeks into the month, with less than ten days left.  We still are 1.5" from our average May rainfall at this point.  We easily could jam 1.5" of rain into 10 days, no problem, but if the drier pattern persists falling short of 1.5" might be possible.  Plus, we are coming off a drier than normal April too.

Not too worried yet, a 1.5” deficit is one that could easily be made up in one event.

[Bubbler86]

9 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Not too worried yet, a 1.5” deficit is one that could easily be made up in one event.

I see you guys discussing drought...at the end of August of last year we were over 10" below normal for the period May-August.   It only rained some 1-2" the whole months of May and June combined.   My farmer neighbor got his whole corn crop bought out by the government because it never fully flowered and wilted.  Let's hope none of us have to go through something like that. 

[TimB]

Assuming today ends up at about a -1 anomaly for temperature, it looks like we’ll need to average +7.9 the rest of the way to get the monthly average back to normal. Normals for May 18-31 average 74/53, so if we average 82/61 the rest of the way we’ll get there. Wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee but I think it’s far from impossible.

[TimB]

GFS and Euro both suggest we could finish May at or above normal precip.

[Ahoff]

12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I see you guys discussing drought...at the end of August of last year we were over 10" below normal for the period May-August.   It only rained some 1-2" the whole months of May and June combined.   My farmer neighbor got his whole corn crop bought out by the government because it never fully flowered and wilted.  Let's hope none of us have to go through something like that. 

Wasn't that dramatic in this area.  Dry, but not crop killing.  I could go for precipitation departures like last summer here.

[TimB]

20 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wasn't that dramatic in this area.  Dry, but not crop killing.  I could go for precipitation departures like last summer here.

Laura saved us. Otherwise could have been close to that.

[Ahoff]

41 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Laura saved us. Otherwise could have been close to that.

I would have been fine with it.

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I would have been fine with it.

I think I would have too, but the worst thing we city folk have to worry about is brown grass and having to water plants a little more often.

[Ahoff]

8 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I think I would have too, but the worst thing we city folk have to worry about is brown grass and having to water plants a little more often.

But climate just doesn’t seem to support long term drought.

[north pgh]

Still waiting for my first thunderstorm of the year

[jwilson]

NWS mentioned yesterday that they've only issued 2 severe warnings so far in 2021, while last year we had 52 to this point.

Seems like a country-wide effect, though.  All measures of severe weather are way down from the averages, including >200 fewer tornadoes than usual.  June and July are typically our biggest months so we'll see if anything changes over the summer.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

NWS mentioned yesterday that they've only issued 2 severe warnings so far in 2021, while last year we had 52 to this point.

Seems like a country-wide effect, though.  All measures of severe weather are way down from the averages, including >200 fewer tornadoes than usual.  June and July are typically our biggest months so we'll see if anything changes over the summer.

That’s the thing here. We get nearly twice as much severe wind and tornadoes in both June and July as we do in May. Severe hail is the only thing where May is the 2nd highest month, and who really wants that?