Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

For me, it makes sense that at the end of that period it makes more sense to compare it to the same year.  2020 to 2020.

 

Anyway looks like 40s an rain all day, welcome to March guys.

CPC’s 8-14 day outlook seems to give us a shot at getting back toward normal for the month.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 5/7/2021 at 5:33 PM, Ahoff said:

Absolutely sickening.  This May could be worse than last year, as it doesn't seem to want to get to even 65 anytime soon.

Plus, I think we can put drought concerns to bed.

I just hope when this pattern ends we don't shoot right into mid 80s and humidity. Average May weather is pretty enjoyable so it does suck to be so cool right now. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't have taken much to be slightly colder to break some May snowfall records today. If it's going to be 40 and rain may as well be 35 and snow in my opinion and make it interesting.

[TimB]

43 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I just hope when this pattern ends we don't shoot right into mid 80s and humidity. Average May weather is pretty enjoyable so it does suck to be so cool right now. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't have taken much to be slightly colder to break some May snowfall records today. If it's going to be 40 and rain may as well be 35 and snow in my opinion and make it interesting.

May 9th has some of the hardest May records to break from both a cold and snow perspective. Record snowfall of 3.1” is much more than any other day in May, the record low max of 40 has been reached twice on the 9th and never on any other day in May, and 3 of the 4 times the May record daily mean temp of 35.5 has been reached have occurred on the 9th (including last year). But yes, we did get oh so close to that perfect setup to get a rare measurable snowfall in May for the 7th time on record.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I just hope when this pattern ends we don't shoot right into mid 80s and humidity. Average May weather is pretty enjoyable so it does suck to be so cool right now. 

On the other hand, it wouldn't have taken much to be slightly colder to break some May snowfall records today. If it's going to be 40 and rain may as well be 35 and snow in my opinion and make it interesting.

Average May weather is very enjoyable, some of the nicest weather you can have, but if we go right into the 80s and 90s I be fine with it.  This cold is just too annoying at this point.

[KPITSnow]

35 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Average May weather is very enjoyable, some of the nicest weather you can have, but if we go right into the 80s and 90s I be fine with it.  This cold is just too annoying at this point.

I will take this over 90’s any day. 

[KPITSnow]

And wow, imagine if this happened two months ago...this would have likely been a 6-10 event 

 

So if it would’ve been 10° colder today it would’ve been a disaster with the foliage on the trees

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

I will take this over 90’s any day. 

This time of year give me 90s, October, give me this temperature, not rain.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

This time of year give me 90s, October, give me this temperature, not rain.

A high of 43 (if we don’t get any higher before midnight) for the 3rd time in the past two Mays after going 54 years without a high that cold in May is a little shocking, but I’m on the list of people who will take it. Of course I think one of those days last year was sunny and beautiful in the afternoon and the other was hardly a washout either.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

May 9th has some of the hardest May records to break from both a cold and snow perspective. Record snowfall of 3.1” is much more than any other day in May, the record low max of 40 has been reached twice on the 9th and never on any other day in May, and 3 of the 4 times the May record daily mean temp of 35.5 has been reached have occurred on the 9th (including last year). But yes, we did get oh so close to that perfect setup to get a rare measurable snowfall in May for the 7th time on record.

That's interesting, I hadn't checked the records / realized May 9th had that many cold records. 

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's interesting, I hadn't checked the records / realized May 9th had that many cold records. 

Also one of only three dates in May that has never hit 90. Statistical anomalies are one of the (many) things I enjoy about weather. Speaking of, it looks like we will set a daily record today (precip).

[TimB]

Purely for entertainment purposes because this is:

1) the 6z

2) GFS

3) at hour 312

4) on May 23rd

But lock this in, please.

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Purely for entertainment purposes because this is:

1) the 6z

2) GFS

3) at hour 312

4) on May 23rd

But lock this in, please.

God no!  If we see this on the 23rd, I'll go insane.

[TimB]

21 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

God no!  If we see this on the 23rd, I'll go insane.

Think 2002. 

[Ahoff]

30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Think 2002. 

I was 7, so I don't remember, but I also don't want anything to do with it.

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

I was 7, so I don't remember, but I also don't want anything to do with it.

It’s probably the standard-bearer for cold in the second half of May in recent times. There were 4 consecutive days (5/18-21) where the temperature didn’t get above 52, we dropped to freezing on the 19th, 21st and 22nd and had a trace of snow on the 21st. I’d say one of those rare once or twice in a lifetime events and almost certainly not going to happen this month - the GFS has already joined the camp of most other models predicting things to go back to normal or even above by the second half of next week.

Also, we hit 90 degrees 24 times in the summer of 2002, so a cold snap in May is meaningless.

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It’s probably the standard-bearer for cold in the second half of May in recent times. There were 4 consecutive days (5/18-21) where the temperature didn’t get above 52, we dropped to freezing on the 19th, 21st and 22nd and had a trace of snow on the 21st. I’d say one of those rare once or twice in a lifetime events and almost certainly not going to happen this month - the GFS has already joined the camp of most other models predicting things to go back to normal or even above by the second half of next week.

Also, we hit 90 degrees 24 times in the summer of 2002, so a cold snap in May is meaningless.

I know a cold May is meaningless (look at last year).  It's just that May can be one of the nicest month we get because of nice 65-75 degree days with sunshine.  This ain't it so far, and its gross, lol.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I know a cold May is meaningless (look at last year).  It's just that May can be one of the nicest month we get because of nice 65-75 degree days with sunshine.  This ain't it so far, and its gross, lol.

Ah, and that’s the problem. We all know when this pattern flips it’s going to flip hard and we’ll get very few days in that optimal range.

[Ahoff]

36 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, and that’s the problem. We all know when this pattern flips it’s going to flip hard and we’ll get very few days in that optimal range.

Like I said earlier, if it flipped to summer after this crappy stretch, i'm fine.  The cold has been hanging on far too long at this point, move on to summer.

[TimB]

15 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Like I said earlier, if it flipped to summer after this crappy stretch, i'm fine.  The cold has been hanging on far too long at this point, move on to summer.

I think you’re in luck:

 

...but maybe this is still a possibility:

[Ahoff]

30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I think you’re in luck:

 

...but maybe this is still a possibility:

Still too far away for me to get excited, but luckily the Euro shows the good stuff and the GFS is on its own.

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Still too far away for me to get excited, but luckily the Euro shows the good stuff and the GFS is on its own.

Of course it’s always better when it’s the Euro showing the weather you want, or in this case everything but the GFS. I’d guess it will still fall short of 80 next Thursday afternoon but I’d probably put money on it not being 44.

[Ahoff]

I'm happy just to get back to 70.

[TimB]

The obviously very scientific iPhone weather app has me finally reaching 73 by next Thursday, but of course by then 73 is normal.

Barring a pretty serious forecast bust, today will be day 7 of not reaching 60, meaning we’ll join 1989, 1960, 1954, 1929 and 1917 as the only years where we’ve gone a full week in May without hitting 60. Looks like a 25-30 year event to me.

[meatwad]

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1152 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007-013-014-020>023-029-031-
073>075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-120000-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0005.210512T0600Z-210512T1300Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Lawrence-Butler-
Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Aliquippa,
Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington,
Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown,
Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers Rock, Kingwood,
and Bruceton Mills
1152 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western
  Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

 

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The obviously very scientific iPhone weather app has me finally reaching 73 by next Thursday, but of course by then 73 is normal.

Barring a pretty serious forecast bust, today will be day 7 of not reaching 60, meaning we’ll join 1989, 1960, 1954, 1929 and 1917 as the only years where we’ve gone a full week in May without hitting 60. Looks like a 25-30 year event to me.

Yesterday it had Monday in the 70s, pushing it further back, lol.

[TimB]

18 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yesterday it had Monday in the 70s, pushing it further back, lol.

The Euro does seem to agree on the cooler early part of the week. But not to worry, the GFS now has us at 65 for next Thursday so model agreement is coming back. Euro really delivers the goods (for those who like 70s or above).

Edit: full on summer. Dew points look to surge into the 65-70 range by mid to late next week. Gross.

[meatwad]

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1140 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513-122345-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0006.210513T0600Z-210513T1200Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle,
Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington,
Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown,
Champion, Ohiopyle, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling,
Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown,
Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg,
Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, and Saint George
1140 AM EDT Wed May 12 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest and western
  Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and the northern
  panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

 

[Ahoff]

^Alright, this is getting old, lol.

[TimB]

Almost certainly the last cold headline of the season. GFS was the only holdout denying summer’s arrival next week and it’s jumped aboard the summer train on its last few runs with the heat and, more notably, humidity. There isn’t a dewpoint below 60 from hour 219 on.

[dj3]

I actually enjoy the cool mornings as long as the sun is out and temperature gets to 60-70 in the afternoon. Definitely done with the crap we endured last weekend and looking forward to the warmer days ahead.