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Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021


Ahoff
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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

I wouldn't say danger, that's an extreme word lol!  But it's not like there has been ample opportunity for thunderstorms (and even rain).  This month is running nearly an inch below normal in rain, and our warmest days have been beautifully sunny.  It's been a dry month so far.

And yet everything is magnificently green, that part is fantastic.

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Waking up to a dusting of snow on the grass is good enough for me!

Edit: looks like NWS measured 1.1” at 7am. That’s 7th highest for this late in the season and also assures us of above average April snowfall.

Edit 2: for those keeping score, the GFS wins this one, at least in our area. It showed over an inch of snow long before any other model caught it. (And some never did)

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8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Hopefully.  This has been an up and down April to say the least.

You win. Winter is allowed to be over now. Between the snow at the start of April and today’s once in a generation event, the sour taste March left in my mouth is completely gone.

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One more tidbit of data: it looks like the airport was at 38 at midnight (yesterday’s low was 38 at 11:59 pm). Daily record low max is 41 (1875 yet again - seems like a pretty solid analog to this April, though that year did set probably the hardest to break cold temperature daily records anywhere on Pittsburgh’s calendar), and there are only 6 days on record on or after 4/21 that have failed to reach 40.

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Hi All, lurked for a while, moderately recent transplant to the area from ATL after a ~2yr stint in Minnesota (was not prepared for -20F and lower temps, ha!) but I'll take cold over heat and humidity any day.  I have an eng research bkgnd, love modeling&sim, meteorology, and the details.  High pressure is my personal nemesis because I much prefer progressive patterns over stagnation, especially in the summer (heat, humidity).

What made me join though is this:

20 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Well, give it a month or two of dry weather.  March was average to above in rain.  And of course the very snowy winter.

I find the local news, even our fcst office, always painting a sunnier picture (pun intended) than what's there: >20F over climatological norms during winter does not constitute a "nice day" nor does the lack of rain thus far this spring.  We need some moisture that isn't in the form of snow melt because that's basically runoff, which is why there is a fire season in the spring.  But the recent sunny days and above average temps with low humidity, beautiful as they may be, have really done a number on our soil moisture.  The PA DEP USGS has drought indicators already going off and we're not even at the drier part of summer yet.  Granted, a few strong rainy fronts would go a long way here, but with the ENSO setup and teleconnections, we aren't trending in the better direction.

30day_departure.jpg

30-60day_precipanom.jpg

150-180dayPrecipAnom.jpg

eddi.jpg

PADEP_DroughtIndicators.jpg

60day_departure.jpg

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4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Someone with the wild idea that spring should feel like spring (but also doesn’t like thunderstorms) started a spring thread... :lol:

Never said I didn't like Thunderstorms, lol.  I like a good thunderstorm, but I don't really care if it rains or not.

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1 hour ago, donyewest said:

Hi All, lurked for a while, moderately recent transplant to the area from ATL after a ~2yr stint in Minnesota (was not prepared for -20F and lower temps, ha!) but I'll take cold over heat and humidity any day.  I have an eng research bkgnd, love modeling&sim, meteorology, and the details.  High pressure is my personal nemesis because I much prefer progressive patterns over stagnation, especially in the summer (heat, humidity).

What made me join though is this:

I find the local news, even our fcst office, always painting a sunnier picture (pun intended) than what's there: >20F over climatological norms during winter does not constitute a "nice day" nor does the lack of rain thus far this spring.  We need some moisture that isn't in the form of snow melt because that's basically runoff, which is why there is a fire season in the spring.  But the recent sunny days and above average temps with low humidity, beautiful as they may be, have really done a number on our soil moisture.  The PA DEP USGS has drought indicators already going off and we're not even at the drier part of summer yet.  Granted, a few strong rainy fronts would go a long way here, but with the ENSO setup and teleconnections, we aren't trending in the better direction.

30day_departure.jpg

30-60day_precipanom.jpg

150-180dayPrecipAnom.jpg

eddi.jpg

PADEP_DroughtIndicators.jpg

60day_departure.jpg

Glad I inspired you, lol.  Also, the "drought" doesn't bother me right now.  I doubt we will see long term, sustained, exceptional drought here, like what occurs in the west and plains.  Our climate just doesn't seem to support it all that often.  I'm okay with a bit of dry weather.

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9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Never said I didn't like Thunderstorms, lol.  I like a good thunderstorm, but I don't really care if it rains or not.

To a certain extent I agree with that. We need some rain, but I could go the rest of my life without seeing another year like 2018 or even 2019 and not feel like I missed out on anything.

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17 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To a certain extent I agree with that. We need some rain, but I could go the rest of my life without seeing another year like 2018 or even 2019 and not feel like I missed out on anything.

Exactly, 2018-2019 was the wettest two year period ever recorded in Pittsburgh, with 2018 being the wettest year ever recorded.  It made me sick of rain.  2020 was (rain wise, everything else sucked, lol) nice.

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000
SXUS71 KPBZ 212137
RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
537 PM EDT WED APR 21 2021

...RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH PA...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PITTSBURGH TODAY WAS 40 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN PITTSBURGH ON APRIL 21ST. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 41 DEGREES, SET IN 1875.

 

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21 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

The cold the last week plus, has completely erased the positive departures we saw earlier this month.  The high, low and average temperature are all exactly at a 0.0 degree departure.  I've never seen that before.

 

Still at 50% of normal rainfall.

All three are exactly average? That’s wild. That departure should go slightly negative today and tomorrow before going back positive, but unless something really wild happens we should finish the month somewhere around half a degree above normal. Really an up and down month, we’ve had a record high, a record low, a record cold max, and a shot at a record warm min Wednesday (record is 62), all in different weeks of the month.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

All three are exactly average? That’s wild. That departure should go slightly negative today and tomorrow before going back positive, but unless something really wild happens we should finish the month somewhere around half a degree above normal. Really an up and down month, we’ve had a record high, a record low, a record cold max, and a shot at a record warm min Wednesday (record is 62), all in different weeks of the month.

Yep.  Really wild, because I've never seen that.

Capture.PNG

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Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
433 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021

OHZ040-041-049-050-PAZ020-021-029-031-075-WVZ001>003-260445-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0001.210426T0600Z-210426T1300Z/
Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Beaver-Allegheny-
Washington-Greene-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool,
Salem, Columbiana, Cadiz, Steubenville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls,
Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg,
and Wheeling
433 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Temperature in the lower 30s will result in areas of
  frost.

* WHERE...Much of southwestern and western Pennsylvania, east
  central Ohio and northern West Virginia, including the northern
  West Virginia Panhandle.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

 

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Looks like warmth and humidity will be winning the battle more often than not over the next couple weeks. Hopefully that means at least a day here or there when Allegheny County is mauve (edit: the NWS calls this color “pale violet red”) or yellow on the NWS watch/warning map.

Seems like quite a few days of low-mid 60s dewpoint hell coming up (in late April-early May - way too early for that nonsense) if the models are onto something. :weep:

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Marginal risk for D2 and D3. I’m not expecting any big storms but at this point any thunderstorm is a good thunderstorm.

Wed. AM update: slight risk. Also, our low as of 8am is 67. We’ll see if we drop below that before midnight, but the warmest low ever recorded in April in the KPIT era is 65. 
 

Edit: low on 4/28 was 66 at 11:59pm. First April day in the KPIT era that has failed to drop to 65 or lower.

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Looks like we'll end up with a basically average Apriul temperature wise, a little dry, but a little snowy too.

 

Accuweather Summer Forecast

Accuweather says average temp, but stormy start to summer, then drier and hot for August.  We'll see.  The last truly hot August (I consider that more than 2 degrees above average) was 2016.

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Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1259 PM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509-010315-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0002.210501T0500Z-210501T1300Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls,
Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington,
Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee,
Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont,
and Morgantown
1259 PM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania, east
  central Ohio and northern and the northern panhandle of West
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

 

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