Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021

[TimB]

15 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Global warming is a myth. 

Not taking the bait, lol. Opinions may vary on global warming, and I can live with that, but opinions don’t vary on whether or not a person is clever, funny, or original when they sarcastically comment “global warming” every time the NWS makes a social media post about cold temperatures.

Disclaimer: I do not want to turn this into a debate on climate change, but I’ll go as far as to say that I have a tremendous degree of respect for other weather enthusiasts and am absolutely certain that you could point to evidence or a basis to support your position from a scientific perspective rather than just blindly parroting what politicians say, as could I to support my position. I do not believe this is always the case with the social media commenters who make these “jokes”.

[Ahoff]

Could we hit 80 in the coming days?  TWC app keeps increasing the temperatures over the next few days.

[TimB]

5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Could we hit 80 in the coming days?  TWC app keeps increasing the temperatures over the next few days.

Looks like we could challenge Thursday’s record high of 82 from 1875. You know what else happened in April 1875? A high of 28 and a low of 16 on the 17th, then a high of 25 and a low of 14 on the 18th, the two coldest April days in Pittsburgh’s history.

There seem to be rumblings of a variation of that pattern shift (albeit much less extreme) in the models lately. Unless you live in GFS fantasy land, where several inches of snow fall in that time frame.

[TimB]

HRRR suggests low 80s today, and looks like we have 3 shots at our first 80 between now and Saturday. Slightly ahead of schedule, average date for that is 4/19.

[Ahoff]

Not too far ahead of schedule.

[TimB]

Not ready for permanent 80s yet, but looks like we’re headed into another cool period after this week.

[Ahoff]

We're definitely not having "permanent" 80s at all.  If we make it to 80 in the next few days, looks like it will be awhile before we're there again.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

We're definitely not having "permanent" 80s at all.  If we make it to 80 in the next few days, looks like it will be awhile before we're there again.

Truth be told, we don’t really have permanent 80s any time of year. My recency bias is showing after last summer, when we reached our first 80 a month late and our last 80 a week early, but had nearly wall to wall 80s and 90s in between. Most summers give us modest cool downs that are much appreciated.

[TimB]

76 already. I don’t see any way we fall short of 80 today.

Edit: except for afternoon clouds and a north wind.

[Ahoff]

79 Currently.  Warmest day of the year.  80 is very possible now.

[TimB]

81. We made it. First time since September.

[Ahoff]

Also a rare warm home opener for the Pirates tomorrow.

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Also a rare warm home opener for the Pirates tomorrow.

Ah yes, that’s a plus. Back before the pandemic and before I decided not another dime of my hard earned money was going into Bob Nutting’s pockets, I tried to go to one game in that opening series (not necessarily the opener itself, so an evening game) every year. I remember going to one in maybe 2016 where the high was in the low 40s and then skipping out on one in 2018 because it was too cold with snow flurries.

(I’m admittedly conflicted because of my well documented position on cold weather.)

[TimB]

Another day, another 80 degree reading. First time it’s happened on back to back days this early in the season since 3/22-23/2012.

[Ahoff]

Also tied record high of 82 from 1875.

Two records in a week a record low and a record high.  Only Pittsburgh in the Spring, lol.

[TimB]

All that model noise and it looks like we’re back to our usual pattern of alternating between unseasonable warmth and “cooler” periods that are still at or slightly above normal.

[TimB]

Way too far out to mean anything, but the last two runs of the GFS toward the end of the period are entertaining.

[Ahoff]

Guess that's why hr 360 is a clown.

[CoraopolisWx]

Maybe some graupel or snow/mix looks to be crossing the northern part of the county soon.

[Ahoff]

Ron Smiley says that the low 60s in the next few days will likely be the warmest over the next 14 days!  Gross.  Hopefully, that is not true since 14 days is too long to really know what's going to happen.

[TimB]

Thought I saw the NWS post the other day that the growing season has begun in Allegheny County and points south. A good frost at my place and hit 31 at the airport this morning. Must have been a complete surprise/more radiational cooling than expected, because I don’t think a frost advisory/freeze warning was issued. (Though I would say a freeze warning wouldn’t have been warranted, AGC and I imagine many other areas of the county only dropped to near 35.)

[TimB]

Any more SE shifts in this week’s models and the summer fans won’t be happy...

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 4/18/2021 at 2:28 PM, TimB84 said:

Any more SE shifts in this week’s models and the summer fans won’t be happy...

Maybe last snow of the season on tap. I say bring it on, unrelenting summer heat will set in soon for a good 3-4 months either way.

[jwilson]

Looking forward to interesting weather, though I would prefer some thunderstorms to track.  Pretty dull spring so far in that regard.

I remember last April we had tornado warnings overnight.  Two confirmed tornadoes (EF1 and EF0).  Intense.

 

[Ahoff]

This weather's getting gross.  Too late for me to be as cold as it's going to be.  Hopefully winter's last breath, and bring on nice warm weather.  All I need right now is consistent 60s at least.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

Looking forward to interesting weather, though I would prefer some thunderstorms to track.  Pretty dull spring so far in that regard.

I remember last April we had tornado warnings overnight.  Two confirmed tornadoes (EF1 and EF0).  Intense.

 

Yeah that was a heck of a night here... Phones went off with the warning and woke us up, my wife was like should we be worried, I looked outside and saw the rain going horizontal as the radar loaded on my phone and yelled yes get the kids and let's get in the basement. We could hear patio furniture sliding across the deck. We were without power for a solid 12 hours afterwards. Luckily no damage other than a destroyed trampoline. I remember being glad I had a dying 80 ft locust tree near the house cut down 2 weeks earlier.

Wouldn't mind some thunderstorms either but can do without the tornado. 

[TimB]

Certainly not saying I want to wake up at 1am for a tornado warning, ever again, but we’re honestly in danger of getting to the end of April without even a thunderstorm, unless I missed one somewhere along the line.

[north pgh]

Back to tomorrow... it looks like a small burst of snow showers around daybreak tomorrow. Don't be surprised if we see some good snow showers and a potential squall during the mid to late afternoon. I'm pretty sure we won't see much sticking but should be fun to see. I can remember growing up as a kid in the 70's getting some nice spring bursts with the dark skies just before the snow showers would hit leaving some white in the grassy areas. 

[TimB]

I don’t think we get an inch or more like some models want to show, but if we do, that’s something that has only happened 8 times on or after 4/21 and only once since 1966 (4/24/05).

[Ahoff]

5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Certainly not saying I want to wake up at 1am for a tornado warning, ever again, but we’re honestly in danger of getting to the end of April without even a thunderstorm, unless I missed one somewhere along the line.

I wouldn't say danger, that's an extreme word lol!  But it's not like there has been ample opportunity for thunderstorms (and even rain).  This month is running nearly an inch below normal in rain, and our warmest days have been beautifully sunny.  It's been a dry month so far.