Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021

[TimB]

  On 5/26/2021 at 3:12 PM, north pgh said:

I would rather have the humid and a chance of thunderstorms mixed in with the rain as opposed to steady rain and cool.

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For the most part, I agree. Love thunderstorms but the weather feature I despise the most is humidity. So conflicted.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/26/2021 at 2:15 AM, TimB84 said:

It’s looking like it could be at least 2 degrees below average. I don’t think it’ll even be close.

Edit: could be a little closer now that Friday looks warmer. Most models get us close to or above 70 with the nasty dewpoints in the mid 60s making a brief return.

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74 is the average high now, so 70 still drops the average.

[TimB]

  On 5/26/2021 at 4:26 PM, Ahoff said:

74 is the average high now, so 70 still drops the average.

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NAM wants to blast us into the upper 70s, but even so, none of it looks like nearly enough to derail a below average month. We still need to average roughly 84/63 the rest of the month to even have a chance. Today is the only day that will even be close.

[meatwad]

SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   100 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Connecticut
     Western Massachusetts
     Central and Eastern New York
     Eastern Ohio
     Much of Pennsylvania
     Southern Vermont
     Northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM
     until 800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
   the afternoon in a warm/humid air mass.  The strongest storms will
   pose a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts through early evening.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
   southwest of Akron OH to 45 miles northeast of Pittsfield MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   26035.

   ...Hart

[Ahoff]

Really didn't seem like there were any storms.  Some heavy rain briefly but that's it.  While I don't care if there is any rain or storms, but it is really weird to have pretty much no thunderstorms area wide for this long into the year.

[TimB]

  On 5/26/2021 at 10:09 PM, Ahoff said:

Really didn't seem like there were any storms.  Some heavy rain briefly but that's it.  While I don't care if there is any rain or storms, but it is really weird to have pretty much no thunderstorms area wide for this long into the year.

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I heard a bit of thunder this afternoon imby. Nothing of substance, but most severe weather days fail to produce much in Allegheny County, and this was no exception.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/26/2021 at 10:11 PM, TimB84 said:

I heard a bit of thunder this afternoon imby. Nothing of substance, but most severe weather days fail to produce much in Allegheny County, and this was no exception.

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I'd rather not see damage from storms for people, so that's always a plus.

[TimB]

  On 5/26/2021 at 10:54 PM, Ahoff said:

I'd rather not see damage from storms for people, so that's always a plus.

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Eh, no different from rooting for winter storms IMO.

[TimB]

  On 5/25/2021 at 2:38 PM, donyewest said:

I hope!  Bet we pull the regular hot and humid all day, frontal passage as the sun sets, little widespread rain relief, temps/dew points go down slowly.  The ol' okie-doke.

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We have a winner!

[jwilson]

I was outside prior to the line rolling in, and you could feel the change before the rain ever hit.  It went from a warm wind and humid day to almost instantly cooler with a cold breeze.  We seem to do outflow-dominant well around these parts.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/27/2021 at 1:54 AM, TimB84 said:

Eh, no different from rooting for winter storms IMO.

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A ten inch snow storm can't flatten areas like a tornado, but okay.

[TimB]

  On 5/27/2021 at 2:58 PM, Ahoff said:

A ten inch snow storm can't flatten areas like a tornado, but okay.

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True. But some good strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are always enjoyable.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/27/2021 at 3:20 PM, TimB84 said:

True. But some good strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are always enjoyable.

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Unless a tree falls on your house like one did to mine a few years ago, lol.  That was on a low end severe day.

[TimB]

Just a perfect day. They just don’t make ‘em like this too often. Hope we get a few of these in July and August.

[Ahoff]

Congrats to everyone who wanted cold weather at the end of May.  Hopefully you enjoy this cold rainy Memorial Day weekend.

[TimB]

  On 5/29/2021 at 3:03 PM, Ahoff said:

Congrats to everyone who wanted cold weather at the end of May.  Hopefully you enjoy this cold rainy Memorial Day weekend.

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If we set a record today, sign me up!

Edit: 51 through 5pm, we should break the record of 54. 

Coldest highs on or after 5/29:  

5/31/1910 (45)
6/1/1910 (47)
6/2/1956 (50) 
6/3/1956 (51)
6/4/1945 (51) 
5/29/2021 (51)

So it’s really only happened in 3 other years and only once at KPIT.

[meatwad]

super gross day today

000
SXUS71 KPBZ 292126
RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
525 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2021

...RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH PA...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PITTSBURGH TODAY WAS 51 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN PITTSBURGH ON MAY 29TH. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 54 DEGREES, SET IN 1897.

 

[Ahoff]

  On 5/29/2021 at 10:34 PM, meatwad said:

super gross day today

000
SXUS71 KPBZ 292126
RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
525 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2021

...RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH PA...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PITTSBURGH TODAY WAS 51 DEGREES. THIS IS THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN PITTSBURGH ON MAY 29TH. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 54 DEGREES, SET IN 1897.

 

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Absolutely horrible day.  Rather depressing for the first weekend of summer.  At least some models are suggesting a more summer like pattern coming up soon.

[TimB]

  On 5/30/2021 at 1:57 AM, Ahoff said:

Absolutely horrible day.  Rather depressing for the first weekend of summer.  At least some models are suggesting a more summer like pattern coming up soon.

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May should slide in just ahead of last year but still well below normal, but I really think you’ll get your well above average June.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/30/2021 at 2:06 AM, TimB84 said:

May should slide in just ahead of last year but still well below normal, but I really think you’ll get your well above average June.

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Just a normal June would be fine.  Sustained warm air is all I'm looking for at this point, this back and forth is frustrating.

[KPITSnow]

  On 5/27/2021 at 1:54 AM, TimB84 said:

Eh, no different from rooting for winter storms IMO.

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Big difference between a snowstorm and damaging winds or a tornado.

[KPITSnow]

Hopefully it is a cooler summer without a ton of 90 degree days. The stretch we had last year was brutal.

[TimB]

  On 5/30/2021 at 1:36 PM, KPITSnow said:

Big difference between a snowstorm and damaging winds or a tornado.

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But is there? In terms of property damage, absolutely. In terms of deaths, the discrepancy isn’t nearly as large. And in terms of weighting these factors, I think death is far worse than property damage in nearly every instance, especially when people have insurance. When I root for severe weather, I’m absolutely not rooting for an EF-5 tornado to rip through downtown Pittsburgh at 5pm when everyone is leaving work. Some good strong to severe thunderstorms with 50-60mph straight line winds would be satisfactory. Besides, if I stopped rooting for severe thunderstorms they would still happen. Okay, that’s a lot of justification for an irrational and somewhat morbid fetish when I think about it. I’ll try to hide my glee if we get placed in an enhanced risk by the SPC anytime soon.

[KPITSnow]

  On 5/30/2021 at 1:55 PM, TimB84 said:

But is there? In terms of property damage, absolutely. In terms of deaths, the discrepancy isn’t nearly as large. And in terms of weighting these factors, I think death is far worse than property damage in nearly every instance, especially when people have insurance. When I root for severe weather, I’m absolutely not rooting for an EF-5 tornado to rip through downtown Pittsburgh at 5pm when everyone is leaving work. Some good strong to severe thunderstorms with 50-60mph straight line winds would be satisfactory. Besides, if I stopped rooting for severe thunderstorms they would still happen. Okay, that’s a lot of justification for an irrational and somewhat morbid fetish when I think about it. I’ll try to hide my glee if we get placed in an enhanced risk by the SPC anytime soon.

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No, you are right, people die in traffic accidents but often that is avoidable as I've seen how people drive around here in the winter. Everyone thinks their SUV means they can still go 60MPH.

I can't think of many reports of deaths or property damage from the storm in December.

[TimB]

  On 5/30/2021 at 2:01 PM, KPITSnow said:

No, you are right, people die in traffic accidents but often that is avoidable as I've seen how people drive around here in the winter. Everyone thinks their SUV means they can still go 60MPH.

I can't think of many reports of deaths or property damage from the storm in December.

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I will say this. I’ll take a good snowstorm over a severe weather outbreak 100 times out of 100, not that the two are ever really alternatives that exist in the same space outside of April (and I was very satisfied with this April, particularly the surprise late snow). And I second your thoughts on drivers, they’ll slow down to a crawl in a light rain shower or drizzle but won’t do the same for snow.

[Ahoff]

Another terribly gross day, only plus is it wasn't quite as bad as yesterday.  We'll see if tomorrow actually has any sun or gets to 70.

[Ahoff]

Nice to see sun this morning.  Let's see where it gets us later.

[TimB]

  On 5/30/2021 at 9:48 PM, Ahoff said:

Another terribly gross day, only plus is it wasn't quite as bad as yesterday.  We'll see if tomorrow actually has any sun or gets to 70.

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I would say summer haters like me have had our fun and today is the first day in a stretch of at least 100 days in a row that get to 70 or above.

[Ahoff]

  On 5/31/2021 at 1:38 PM, TimB84 said:

I would say summer haters like me have had our fun and today is the first day in a stretch of at least 100 days in a row that get to 70 or above.

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I would agree, but last week at this time they were advertising mid to upper 70s and sun for this weekend, so I'm not holding my breath.  Next weekend looks perfect, but could end up in the 60s and rain in three days.

[TimB]

  On 5/31/2021 at 4:43 PM, Ahoff said:

I would agree, but last week at this time they were advertising mid to upper 70s and sun for this weekend, so I'm not holding my breath.  Next weekend looks perfect, but could end up in the 60s and rain in three days.

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That and not sure we officially hit 70 this afternoon. Going to be close.

Looking ahead, GFS continues to show a lot of heat and humidity, but it showed a lot of that in May only to trend cold when it got closer to the time.