Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021

[Ahoff]

We needed a Spring forum, since it looks like winter is totally over.

[TimB]

Well on our way to our first 70 degree day, we’re 6 degrees ahead of 24 hours ago and we hit 67 yesterday.

High wind watch for Friday - I know these almost always become advisories and not warnings, but something to watch.

[Ahoff]

Officially the warmest day of the year.  Hit 69 so far.

Update: First 70 degree day.  Currently 71.

High today: 73!  Beautiful today.

[Ahoff]

Also looking very windy on Friday.  Is it me or has March become windier?  Just seems most days this month have had high winds.

[TimB]

17 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Also looking very windy on Friday.  Is it me or has March become windier?  Just seems most days this month have had high winds.

Was thinking about this. Anecdotally, I would guess that the 30 days before and after about 3/15 have always been our windiest period. Maybe more so in recent years, but I’ve never looked at the data. As for tomorrow’s event, 2/24/19 (I think our most recent high wind watch/warning event in Allegheny County) comes to mind, but over a smaller area of the US and of somewhat lesser magnitude. I just looked at the SPC outlook and reports from the day before that event and lo and behold, there was a tornado outbreak over MS/AL the day before.

(Side note: 59 currently at KPIT, 4 degrees warmer than the same time yesterday. That method correctly predicted yesterday’s high of 73, I’m going to say we make it to 77 today if the rain holds off. HRRR agrees. 1pm update: still running 5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Upper 70s still seems on track.)

[Ahoff]

21 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Was thinking about this. Anecdotally, I would guess that the 30 days before and after about 3/15 have always been our windiest period. Maybe more so in recent years, but I’ve never looked at the data. As for tomorrow’s event, 2/24/19 (I think our most recent high wind watch/warning event in Allegheny County) comes to mind, but over a smaller area of the US and of somewhat lesser magnitude. I just looked at the SPC outlook and reports from the day before that event and lo and behold, there was a tornado outbreak over MS/AL the day before.

(Side note: 59 currently at KPIT, 4 degrees warmer than the same time yesterday. That method correctly predicted yesterday’s high of 73, I’m going to say we make it to 77 today if the rain holds off. HRRR agrees. 1pm update: still running 5 degrees ahead of yesterday. Upper 70s still seems on track.)

Only made it to 72 yesterday.  Cloud cover and spotty rain hindered the warming.  Still a nice day though.

[TimB]

The Euro’s solution for Thursday is intriguing! Only 3 snowier April days in the record book if we can manage to get this. Also keeps us below freezing Friday, which would be incredibly rare for April (last happened in 2007, then 1982 before that).

Probably a ceiling for that event. Most model runs predict some snow, though just a modest amount. Another note: this is possibly our last snow chance, given the forecast of a very warm April for most of the US. If we don’t see another flake of snow, we would shatter the old record for earliest last flakes (T) by almost three weeks (3/5/21, record is 3/24 in both 1998 and 2008). If this comes to pass, people can draw their own conclusions when it comes to first/last dates records being not only broken, but completely obliterated.

[Ahoff]

Looking like a very up an down week.  High at 71 Tuesday, and a high of 34 Thursday.  Not much precip but Wednesday looks to be the rainier day.

[TimB]

Officially a trace of snow yesterday. Assures we won’t set a ridiculous record.

Also will be a trace of snow for today, it looks like the 3am and 5am observations at KPIT included snow flurries.

NWS has put 0.2” of snow into the point and click for after midnight Thursday morning. That would be twice as much as our March total. 12z NAM gives us something like that, but 12z GFS is snowier. Interested to see what the 12z Euro does, given that the NAM and GFS trended in opposite directions.

[TimB]

Looks like another typical Pittsburgh letdown with our last chance at snow, now it looks like it stays rain for longer so less moisture for snow after the changeover. I could live with even 1” to avenge a terrible March and close the books on winter, but I don’t see us getting that.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like another typical Pittsburgh letdown with our last chance at snow, now it looks like it stays rain for longer so less moisture for snow after the changeover. I could live with even 1” to avenge a terrible March and close the books on winter, but I don’t see us getting that.

You are extremely negative about everything. We could be getting a blizzard of 2 feet and I could see you saying "well what another let down living in this crappy area. The Mid-Atlantic is getting hit with 3 feet and of course we are only getting 2 feet." 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like another typical Pittsburgh letdown with our last chance at snow, now it looks like it stays rain for longer so less moisture for snow after the changeover. I could live with even 1” to avenge a terrible March and close the books on winter, but I don’t see us getting that.

It will be April 1st.  It isn't a letdown, it is very typical.  Multiple inches of snow in April is hard to achieve.  It always has been.

[TimB]

17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It will be April 1st.  It isn't a letdown, it is very typical.  Multiple inches of snow in April is hard to achieve.  It always has been.

That is a fact. Though I did say 1” was in my list of possibilities I deem “acceptable,” not necessarily multiple inches. Also, less than half an inch of snow from February 23 on is hard to achieve. It’s only been achieved once in the history of this city, and never in the past 118 years.

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

You are extremely negative about everything. We could be getting a blizzard of 2 feet and I could see you saying "well what another let down living in this crappy area. The Mid-Atlantic is getting hit with 3 feet and of course we are only getting 2 feet." 

I wouldn’t rule out that my reaction would be along those lines. 

But your sample size of my posts on here only goes back to February 3rd, and that time period includes no major snowstorms, back-to-back busts, and a period of historic snow futility starting the last week of February.

But it may be glass-half-empty/glass-half-full, since that period also included the 3 weeks of snow cover and consistent cold temperatures that allowed us to keep the snow from the storm just before I joined this forum.

[Ahoff]

7 hours ago, TimB84 said:

That is a fact. Though I did say 1” was in my list of possibilities I deem “acceptable,” not necessarily multiple inches. Also, less than half an inch of snow from February 23 on is hard to achieve. It’s only been achieved once in the history of this city, and never in the past 118 years.

But you always like to forget the incredible Dec. 1-February 22nd period.  55” in less than 3 months.  Good times.

[TimB]

28 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But you always like to forget the incredible Dec. 1-February 22nd period.  55” in less than 3 months.  Good times.

That’s fair, there aren’t many winters that fit all that snow into such a short period. But let’s hope the 2021-22 winter starts on time like the last one did or even early, an unseasonably warm December like we often get would have us staring down the barrel of a 10 month almost snowless period.

[TimB]

44.8 average temp for March. +5.2 relative to average, tied for 21st warmest all time and 7th in the KPIT era. 4 of those 7 have occurred in the past 10 years.

[Rd9108]

Snowing pretty hard right now. 

[TimB]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Snowing pretty hard right now. 

Seconded. Moderate snow shower, picked up a quick coating. 9am observation at the airport was also mod snow.

[Rd9108]

I do enjoy everyone on Facebook and snapchat freaking out over the snow. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I do enjoy everyone on Facebook and snapchat freaking out over the snow. 

Considering 2018 featured a very snowy April and 2020 had snow in May, you’d think people’s memories should be long enough not to be surprised when a dusting of snow falls 9 hours into April.

[Ahoff]

46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I do enjoy everyone on Facebook and snapchat freaking out over the snow. 

Yeah, like it at least flurries almost every April.  And was doing it in May last year.  It's not abnormal.

[TimB]

Don’t see these too often in April. Radar looks like heavy snow went straight over the airport. Will be interesting to see what today’s final measurement is, if anything.

[Rd9108]

I know basically no one is posting anymore but boy does it feel like mid winter out there right now. 20s with that wind blowing and its the coldest I felt this year. 

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I know basically no one is posting anymore but boy does it feel like mid winter out there right now. 20s with that wind blowing and its the coldest I felt this year. 

It was a legit winter airmass today. 
Impressive for April 1. 

[TimB]

Said I’d be happy with 1” and I’m happy with the actual official total of 0.8”. Low of 20 this morning falls just shy of the daily record of 17, but tomorrow’s record of 21 might be within reach.

[TimB]

Completely off-topic, but I’ve thought about it ever since the event and it popped into my mind again this morning: is there a chance that the record high of 95 from 9/4/18 (and adjacent non-record days where we got to 93 and 94) is erroneous due to a bad temp sensor or something? My recollection is KPIT was consistently running several degrees higher than KAGC on every hourly observation that week, both in mornings and afternoons, etc. (we know it’s very often the other way around), both during the heat wave itself and during the rainstorm from the hurricane remnants the following weekend - it seemed to be corrected soon after that.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Completely off-topic, but I’ve thought about it ever since the event and it popped into my mind again this morning: is there a chance that the record high of 95 from 9/4/18 (and adjacent non-record days where we got to 93 and 94) is erroneous due to a bad temp sensor or something? My recollection is KPIT was consistently running several degrees higher than KAGC on every hourly observation that week, both in mornings and afternoons, etc. (we know it’s very often the other way around), both during the heat wave itself and during the rainstorm from the hurricane remnants the following weekend - it seemed to be corrected soon after that.

I feel like I heard that the got a new sensor right before that and it had been calibrated incorrectly, and later corrected.  If that's the case, they should try to retroactively correct the data.

[TimB]

17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I feel like I heard that the got a new sensor right before that and it had been calibrated incorrectly, and later corrected.  If that's the case, they should try to retroactively correct the data.

I feel validated that:

1. Someone actually knows and remembers what I’m babbling about here.

and 

2. There seems to be an explanation for it and not just my own suspicions.

Beyond that, one daily record high was tied and one daily record warm low was broken during that stretch, both of which were far short of records for the month of September. On that basis, I’d say the NWS wouldn’t really bother with a matter so trivial. BUT, that is the warmest September monthly average on record at KPIT (69.7), though there are 10 Septembers between 1881 and 1931 with higher averages. If our temperatures were reading 2-3 degrees higher than they should have for a week, that could shave up to 0.5-0.7 degrees off the monthly average and put it behind 2015 (69.6), 2016 (69.5) and maybe even 2019 (69.1). (Side note: Good lord, have our four warmest Septembers in the KPIT era really occurred in the past 6 years?) So on the basis of that being the warmest September on record at KPIT, it might be important that the data be accurate.

[TimB]

Tied our daily record low from 3 other years, and it doesn’t appear to have gone unnoticed by several people who were just waiting to make their unoriginal global warming “jokes” on the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook post.

[Rd9108]

Global warming is a myth.