Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251929Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL. Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface low from southern IL into central KY. In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below 1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F. Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place, effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chip said: I agree... I think TN is out of this... MS and AL will have a few tornadoes He has thousands of people that follow him and he gives everyone a bad sign,he shouldn't say shit like that...excuse my french 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 32 minutes ago, Utvols235 said: Nashville folks... thoughts? . Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251929Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL. Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface low from southern IL into central KY. In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below 1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F. Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place, effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I agree... I think TN is out of this... MS and AL will have a few tornadoesI don’t agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t agree with that . That’s cool but that is what makes weather so interesting. Could be correct or could be wrong but we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 That’s cool but that is what makes weather so interesting. Could be correct or could be wrong but we will see.I would agree that west of Jackson is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251929Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL. Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface low from southern IL into central KY. In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below 1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F. Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place, effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021I give them some credit. They do a good job of explaining what’s going on to the average person. Although in this situation (as well as some other situations) their arrogance comes back to bite them. As soon as they post that the SPC says we are right in the thick of it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I don’t agree with that.You can already see suspect upstream cells organizing that will lead downstream into the region of concern. We're no where near out of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Currently in Knoxville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Yeah, was just about to post the image windspeed posted, no clear velocity couplets on the cells yet, but some of them are starting to hook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 You can already see suspect upstream cells organizing that will lead downstream into the region of concern. We're no where near out of the woods.I will say the best shear is a little further East than mods were saying. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 MDS out now for NW of Nashville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: I will say the best shear is a little further East than mods were saying. So where do you think the best shear/ instability is in TN? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 IMO the best overall combination will be across the plateau and the southern valley. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 To think in high risk outlook in MS nothing again. To me we’ve got a long ways to go to ever understanding weather. I wonder if SPC throws out too many warnings and watches too easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 MRX briefing for middle-to-eastern portions of the Valley... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 To think in high risk outlook in MS nothing again. To me we’ve got a long ways to go to ever understanding weather. I wonder if SPC throws out too many warnings and watches too easily. Warnings are real-time as cells evolve. Meso scale discussions and lead time watches are warranted based on synoptic reasoning and conditions that have been suggested by high res modeling and severe parameters. Two seperate entities. Too early to downplay threats when it's not even 22z yet for central areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: To think in high risk outlook in MS nothing again. To me we’ve got a long ways to go to ever understanding weather. I wonder if SPC throws out too many warnings and watches too easily. Warnings are real-time as cells evolve. Meso scale discussions and lead time watches are warranted based on synoptic reasoning and conditions that have been suggested by high res modeling and severe parameters. Two seperate entities. Too early to downplay threats when it's not even 22z yet for central areas. Understand but anything happening in MS is slim. I wonder if our Hi res models need a reset. If this underperforms which would be great. Then something is wrong with our forecasting. Chances of people taking any other threats this spring seriously is greatly diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 20z update from SPC ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to begin trimming severe probabilities from the west across the lower MS Valley. As low-level flow continues to veer over this region, the best severe potential should shift into AL and vicinity through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. For more information on the near-term severe threat across far eastern MS into northern/central AL, see Mesoscale Discussion 256. Strong, long-track tornadoes still appear likely across this region through the evening. Farther north, additional convection should form later this afternoon and evening across parts of western/middle TN and the mid MS Valley as a warm front continues to lift northward and a shortwave trough moves over these regions. All severe hazards appear possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes given the strength of the low-level flow/shear. A severe threat should continue this evening into tonight across the lower OH Valley. For more information on the short-term severe threat across western/middle TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Probably a tornado on the ground headed towards Rome Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 New Tornado Watch up for Middle Tennessee, Western KY, Southern IL, and Southern IN. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Tornado Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northeast Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon from southern Illinois southward into west Tennessee and track across the watch area. Rapidly strengthening winds aloft will increase the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 So is the next line of convection moving into Knoxville to Nashville the secondary warm front?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Beast of a storm heading toward Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3" hail marker Just now, fountainguy97 said: Beast of a storm heading toward Nashville. 3"hail marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Beast of a storm heading toward Nashville. Showing some broad rotation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: Showing some broad rotation now . Yeah this gust front is insane. Probably straight from dead quiet to 70+ winds in an instant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I smell a large amount of incoming hail damage claims in Nashville. Looks nasty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...northern GA...eastern TN...far western NC...extreme upstate SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252131Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A risk for severe thunderstorms, including the threat for a couple of tornadoes, will likely develop over the next several hours across northern GA and eastern TN. The risk will eventually spread east into parts of the far western Carolinas later this evening. The timing of an eventual watch issuance is a bit uncertain. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broad rain shield across the southern Appalachians as of 2130 UTC. A supercell over northwestern GA, on the southern flank of the rain shield, will continue to move east-northeast over northern GA the early evening hours. The airmass across the southern Appalachians is currently rain-cooled/stable but a strong moisture flux/destabilization will likely occur during the evening hours. The richer low-level moisture will likely reside across northern GA where lower 60s F dewpoints are currently observed/expected this evening. In addition to hail/wind risks with a supercell threat gradually spreading northeastward into the area, a tornado or two is possible this evening/tonight. For parts of southeast/eastern TN, the severe threat will likely depend on storm development from the west/southwest eventually moving into the region later this evening. The expected timing of the risk will likely be delayed but begin in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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