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NNE Warm Season Thread 2021


wxeyeNH
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The next look at the ’20-‘21 season snowfall data is by month, with the plot below showing this past season’s monthly snow totals compared to the ’06-’21 averages (white diamonds) in my data set.

There weren’t any really outstanding months this season, but November was solid.  It was up there among the top five in my data set, although more than 10 inches behind the strong ’18-‘19 November we just had a couple seasons ago.

The below average months are quickly evident, and they were December and March.  Each was more than 10 inches below the mean snowfall value, and they obviously marked a couple of the major slow periods shown in the cumulative snowfall plot.

08JUN21A.jpg

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Last winter's snowfall here was proportionally (40-45%) lower than yours for DJM, other months nasomuch.
Month   20-21    23-yr avg.   median
OCT          0            0.66           0
NOV        2.1          4.92         2.60
DEC        9.2        18.97        17.35
JAN       18.2       19.58       21.40*
FEB        21.3      22.89        21.30
MAR        0.1       16.70        14.60
APR         1.6         5.10          3.30
MAY         0           0.15            0
Total      52.5      88.97        90.40

*The high median comes from 1999-2012, a 14-year period in which 9 Januarys had snowfall 22.6" to 27.5", a rare consistency.  The 9 subsequent Januarys had none within that range, with 2 in the 30s, one as the median value and 6 below it.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Last winter's snowfall here was proportionally (40-45%) lower than yours for DJM, other months nasomuch.
Month   20-21    23-yr avg.   median
OCT          0            0.66           0
NOV        2.1          4.92         2.60
DEC        9.2        18.97        17.35
JAN       18.2       19.58       21.40*
FEB        21.3      22.89        21.30
MAR        0.1       16.70        14.60
APR         1.6         5.10          3.30
MAY         0           0.15            0
Total      52.5      88.97        90.40

*The high median comes from 1999-2012, a 14-year period in which 9 Januarys had snowfall 22.6" to 27.5", a rare consistency.  The 9 subsequent Januarys had none within that range, with 2 in the 30s, one as the median value and 6 below it.

That March value must be quite an outlier for a NNE location.  March can certainly show a lot more variability in snowfall relative to DJF in my experience, and snowless/nearly snowless versions can happen, but this far north it’s only a certain combination of warmth and/or dryness that can get the month to come in that low.

That’s a good topic though; I’ll start looking at the monthly snowfall comparisons in my data set next.

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My previous plot provided the average snowfall for each month to allow comparison to the ’20-‘21 totals, but we can also look at a month across the data set to see where ’20-‘21 sits among the distribution of data.  October this season was about as average as it gets at our site for snowfall – it fits right in there among the high and low months, and it actually represents the median value for the data set.

09JUN21A.jpg

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37 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That March value must be quite an outlier for a NNE location.  March can certainly show a lot more variability in snowfall relative to DJF in my experience, and snowless/nearly snowless versions can happen, but this far north it’s only a certain combination of warmth and/or dryness that can get the month to come in that low.

That’s a good topic though; I’ll start looking at the monthly snowfall comparisons in my data set next.

2021 was the 4th time in 129 years that the Farmington co-op has had zero measurable snow - all 4 of those months had traces.  Other than 1999 when December had only 0.1", none of Dec/Jan/Feb have recorded a month with less than 1".  March has 2 fraction months along with the 4 zeros.  In contrast, March 2001 had 58.3", 4th biggest snow month there, with #1-3 all in February.  March has the highest CV of the 4 "snow months", not a surprise.
Edit:  March has had less than 2" eleven times in those 129 years, December once (in 128), February twice and January has never recorded less than 4".

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11 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Desperately awaiting the whoosh here.   Jungle feeling with the rain last night. Dews around 70-71F most of the day so far.

Yeah it feels much nicer now.  We were around 70F dew point this morning and now down into the mid-50s with NW winds continuing.

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Looking at the November monthly snowfall numbers from our data set, we can see where November ’20-‘21 stacks up.  Indeed it was a fairly strong November overall, and with back-to-back storms bringing over a foot of new snow on the 1st and 2nd of the month, it got things off to a very early start that kept the cumulative snowfall ahead of average and helped buffer season snowfall through the relatively slow December.

One thing that I hadn’t really noticed until putting the data into graphical form was what a solid run of Novembers we’ve had as of late.  The past five Novembers have all been essentially at or above average, and that cluster definitely stands out on the plot.

10JUN21A.jpg

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30 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

Cool, I need to invest in one of those sometime soon. 

I said that for years.  Finally after years of telling my wife and son I’d be happy with any presents they got me for Christmas, i told them I wanted a weather station.  It’s a cheap-o Ambient but it works ok for my limited needs. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sweet

We went and visited a friend who is camping at the state park a mile or two away on a different pond. While we are there we heard loons calling out. I walked down to the water and there was a pair of loons in the water yelling at a bald eagle that was swooping at the water around them.  I assume they were all trying to fish. I tried taking a picture but they were a bit too far out to really capture. One of the coolest nature things I’ve witnessed. 

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

We went and visited a friend who is camping at the state park a mile or two away on a different pond. While we are there we heard loons calling out. I walked down to the water and there was a pair of loons in the water yelling at a bald eagle that was swooping at the water around them.  I assume they were all trying to fish. I tried taking a picture but they were a bit too far out to really capture. One of the coolest nature things I’ve witnessed. 

Photographing a bald eagle is on my bucket list.  I’ve only seen one once flying by on Lake Champlain but Vermont has a lot of them.  Sounds like a great scene.

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5 hours ago, mreaves said:

We went and visited a friend who is camping at the state park a mile or two away on a different pond. While we are there we heard loons calling out. I walked down to the water and there was a pair of loons in the water yelling at a bald eagle that was swooping at the water around them.  I assume they were all trying to fish. I tried taking a picture but they were a bit too far out to really capture. One of the coolest nature things I’ve witnessed. 

You sure they were birds and not small alien drones? Oops, not the banter thread…

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Looking at the December snowfall data for our site, we can clearly see that December 2020 was below average - it was actually the third lowest in the data set.  With the low snowfall, I was thinking there might be an obvious segment of the month that was devoid of new snow to account for the deficiency (I know there was that somewhat warm period around Christmas day).  The daily distribution of snowfall doesn’t show that though; the snow was actually distributed fairly evenly throughout the month.  There was new snow on 19 of 31 days, and the longest period without new snow was three days.  Even that period near Christmas day that came to mind only represented two days (the 24th & 25th) without new snow.  I can put those daily snowfall data together in a different plot at some point.

Similar to the November snowfall plot, the visualization of December snowfall really highlighted a trend that I hadn’t noticed.  It was somewhat startling to see that we really haven’t had a strong December in our area in eight seasons.  I actually think the long-term average for December snowfall at our site is around 40 inches, so even December 2017 was essentially average.  That means one has to go all the way back to 2012 since we’ve really seen a solid December.  After that notable stretch, we’re probably due for a rebound at some point.

12JUN21A.jpg

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16 hours ago, mreaves said:

We went and visited a friend who is camping at the state park a mile or two away on a different pond. While we are there we heard loons calling out. I walked down to the water and there was a pair of loons in the water yelling at a bald eagle that was swooping at the water around them.  I assume they were all trying to fish. I tried taking a picture but they were a bit too far out to really capture. One of the coolest nature things I’ve witnessed. 

Thats the life. We have lots of Ospreys. I watched as the male and female taught the young un how to fish by folding their wings and dive bombing. Still one of my coolest nature scenes. 

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Been really dry pretty much everywhere in VT,  we're pretty much half way through the year and precip totals are pretty low.  Bennington County has top 4 spots.  The lowest I saw that had all days covered was South Burlington with 9.75". That's crazy for 6 months worth. I guess the only caveat would be if the observers are not doing LE for all snow events, maybe that's the case.

Screenshot_20210613-075939_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8d691f1be200443d1f44716a03316124.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats the life. We have lots of Ospreys. I watched as the male and female taught the young un how to fish by folding their wings and dive bombing. Still one of my coolest nature scenes. 

My brother in law has a family on top of his cell tower every year, there's always a bunch of fish bones piled up at the bottom of the tower.

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