NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahhh that's the one that had so much drama associated with it.  Or basically just the builder went full send without anywhere close to the necessary approvals.

That house is like having 10 acres of manicured lawn in Phoenix. Just shoving it in mother nature’s face and daring her to do something about it. LOL

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, mreaves said:

I struggle enough keeping up with my small, 3 bedroom ranch. I don’t need a bigger headache. Though I suppose if I had enough money to build/buy something like that I could afford to pay for maintenance and house cleaners. 

Yeah if you are buying that you aren't "stretching your budget"... it's like Monopoly money at that point.

But holy crap at the wind speeds this place probably sees for a residential spot... just exposure to the free air from all directions with no barriers at 2,600ft? Low level jet at 925mb racing across the grass.  That field probably never has more than 12" of snow on it, ha.

[mreaves]

Turned out to be a nice evening. 44.6° now. Ended up with .22 today and .58 total. 

[powderfreak]

Happy Memorial Day crew.  Thanks to all the veterans who gave to this country.  Was a great evening as the rain ended and the sun came out.  It'll be a weird night, good fake cooling conditions but warming aloft.  It's been about as cold as it can be this time of year across New England.  

It's still insane to me that this scene occurs after 8pm.  It's light out very late into the evening.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah if you are buying that you aren't "stretching your budget"... it's like Monopoly money at that point.

But holy crap at the wind speeds this place probably sees for a residential spot... just exposure to the free air from all directions with no barriers at 2,600ft? Low level jet at 925mb racing across the grass.  That field probably never has more than 12" of snow on it, ha.

Only with shoulder-season paste bombs.  
Storm total 0.96".  Had 10-15 rumbles of thunder 6:30-7 last evening but only the --RA/dz that had fallen all day - don't know exactly where the TS was centered thanks to the clouds.

[powderfreak]

Surprised to have it raining pretty good up at the ski area this morning.  Looks like upslope rain on the radar.

Forecast is for partly to mostly sunny with scattered afternoon showers.  Hopefully this is just a brief flare up.

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Surprised to have it raining pretty good up at the ski area this morning.  Looks like upslope rain on the radar.

Forecast is for partly to mostly sunny with scattered afternoon showers.  Hopefully this is just a brief flare up.

Broke up before it got here. Up to 60 now with the sun coming out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Liked the talk regarding the elevated plots of land .

On east coast but outside of New England , I always thought those rental properties atop Snowshoe mountain must see some epic weather , however rare it is these days for a deep LP to pass SE of them in the winter months . Hundreds of rentals on that main drag at 4750-4850’ . Many look tragically outdated but there is one building with listings on VRBO that are modern and start at about 95K for a small 400-500 foot 1 BR. Monthly payments look to be around $700 with half that going to HOA.

[#NoPoles]

Over under on 90 degrees for NNE?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

Over under on 90 degrees for NNE?

The radiators should hit it, along with BTV/CON/LEW.  Probably avoid it at 1500ft and above?

[tamarack]

On 6/1/2021 at 2:28 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Liked the talk regarding the elevated plots of land .

On east coast but outside of New England , I always thought those rental properties atop Snowshoe mountain must see some epic weather , however rare it is these days for a deep LP to pass SE of them in the winter months . Hundreds of rentals on that main drag at 4750-4850’ . Many look tragically outdated but there is one building with listings on VRBO that are modern and start at about 95K for a small 400-500 foot 1 BR. Monthly payments look to be around $700 with half that going to HOA.

A WV observer at that kind of elevation reported over 160" for Feb. 2010.  The only greater monthly snowfall I've found in the East is 172" on the Rockpile exactly 41 years earlier.  That WV site had mediocre retention that month, considering over 13 feet of snowfall, but still . . .

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

A WV observer at that kind of elevation reported over 160" for Feb. 2010.  The only greater monthly snowfall I've found in the East is 172" on the Rockpile exactly 41 years earlier.  That WV site had mediocre retention that month, considering over 13 feet of snowfall, but still . . .

2009-2010 was probably a once in 200 years winter for the Mid-Atlantic region. I know the family cabin out that way at 2,700’ had snow over the roof in Feb. Definitely nowhere close to normal. 

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

2009-2010 was probably a once in 200 years winter for the Mid-Atlantic region. I know the family cabin out that way at 2,700’ had snow over the roof in Feb. Definitely nowhere close to normal. 

BWI 78", CAR 71".  For period of return I'd rank Baltimore getting more snow than Caribou right up there with Thirty-Eight and the Octobomb.

[J.Spin]

May Totals

Days with new snow:  2

Accumulating Storms:  1

Snowfall:  0.2”

Liquid Equivalent: 2.92”

SDD:  T

 

I’ve put together my snow and liquid numbers for May, and snowfall was typical, but total liquid was two inches shy of the mean.  For the calendar year here at our site we’re at 15.05” of total liquid, which is about five inches behind normal pace, so we’re running a bit on the drier side of average.

[alex]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The radiators should hit it, along with BTV/CON/LEW.  Probably avoid it at 1500ft and above?

Interesting hearing you say that. Do radiators tend to heat up more? It has struck me in the past that during the daytime we can reach some pretty high temperatures here given the elevation 

[backedgeapproaching]

18 minutes ago, alex said:

Interesting hearing you say that. Do radiators tend to heat up more? It has struck me in the past that during the daytime we can reach some pretty high temperatures here given the elevation 

To be a good radiator, most likely you are surrounded by higher terrain to get the cold drain down the hillsides to pool up at the lowest point.  Get some over the top warmth like early next week and you have warm winds moving down the hillsides creating some compressional warming making it potentially pretty toasty.  You have some pretty high peaks near you, so seems you could get some decent warming, even at 1500'.

At least that is my simpleton take on it..ha  

[powderfreak]

50 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

To be a good radiator, most likely you are surrounded by higher terrain to get the cold drain down the hillsides to pool up at the lowest point.  Get some over the top warmth like early next week and you have warm winds moving down the hillsides creating some compressional warming making it potentially pretty toasty.  You have some pretty high peaks near you, so seems you could get some decent warming, even at 1500'.

At least that is my simpleton take on it..ha  

Yup, that’s how I think of it.  You are more prone to squeezing those extra few degrees out on either side (night and afternoon)... this the high diurnal ranges in those locations.  Mid-slope elevations have a lower diurnal range in clear and non-advection regimes, less chill at night and more moderate afternoons.

Often in NNE the radiator ASOS sites are also the ones that get hot/dry in the afternoon... BML, HIE, MVL, SLK even at almost 1700ft.  Air moving down the mountain slopes into the valley, compressional warming and drying.  Get that extra 2-3F while losing some dew point...those sites get that 90/57 while others are 86/62 type deal.

SLK is probably the best example as it’s what like 1665ft?  That elevation as a hilltop in New England might hit like 83-85F in a very hot period when valleys are ripping off 90s.  Like 1700ft in SVT plateau, not very hot.  But Lake Placid and SLK in that 1600-1800ft range is valley bottom surrounded by 4,000-5,000ft terrain all around.  You’ll see SLK get 87-90F in hot patterns... probably 3-5F hotter than if that elevation is a hilltop.

Then there are larger valley spots like BTV, ALB, MSS, etc that don’t radiate AND absolutely torch, ha.  BTV probably doesn’t drop below 70F for 24-48 hours at some point early next week.  King of 70F mins.

 

[alex]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, that’s how I think of it.  You are more prone to squeezing those extra few degrees out on either side (night and afternoon)... this the high diurnal ranges in those locations.  Mid-slope elevations have a lower diurnal range in clear and non-advection regimes, less chill at night and more moderate afternoons.

Often in NNE the radiator ASOS sites are also the ones that get hot/dry in the afternoon... BML, HIE, MVL, SLK even at almost 1700ft.  Air moving down the mountain slopes into the valley, compressional warming and drying.  Get that extra 2-3F while losing some dew point...those sites get that 90/57 while others are 86/62 type deal.

SLK is probably the best example as it’s what like 1665ft?  That elevation as a hilltop in New England might hit like 83-85F in a very hot period when valleys are ripping off 90s.  Like 1700ft in SVT plateau, not very hot.  But Lake Placid and SLK in that 1600-1800ft range is valley bottom surrounded by 4,000-5,000ft terrain all around.  You’ll see SLK get 87-90F in hot patterns... probably 3-5F hotter than if that elevation is a hilltop.

Then there are larger valley spots like BTV, ALB, MSS, etc that don’t radiate AND absolutely torch, ha.  BTV probably doesn’t drop below 70F for 24-48 hours at some point early next week.  King of 70F mins.

 

That makes sense. That’s the pattern that I’ve observed here. Warmer but drier. Which really bakes my garden lol. Then once the dry heat has taken its toll it hits it with frost. I’m starting to see why so few plants grow well in this zone.

[mreaves]

I guess I don’t pay attention to forecasts much in summer but I didn’t realize we’d get a nice drink today. Up to .31 on the day. 

[#NoPoles]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The radiators should hit it, along with BTV/CON/LEW.  Probably avoid it at 1500ft and above?

Last year was my first summer here. I was surprised at how warm it can get considering the elevation. We had a stretch where it wouldn't even cool down at night. 

[backedgeapproaching]

8 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Last year was my first summer here. I was surprised at how warm it can get considering the elevation. We had a stretch where it wouldn't even cool down at night. 

Yea, I know in the main thread last year Dendrite and others were posting alot of Dewpoint charts--definitely been on the rise the past 10 years throughout NE.  The mins have been way up compared to the max temps because of the higher dews.  Even radiators aren't going to cool way down if the dews are up.

[backedgeapproaching]

1.01" overnight.  Nice soaking before the torch.  

[tamarack]

0.02" overnight, soaked the car windows.  Out of 76 Maine cocorahs reports (as of 8:30) only a site in Palmyra had less, with zero, though a 2nd obs from that town about 4 miles north of #1 reported 0.04".  That town is about 35 miles east from my place.  40 miles west of here, Andover had 0.37", tops for the state.

[powderfreak]

A friend from the Hilton Hotel who’s the director of engineering/maintenance there shared these... I’m not sure I’ve seen a true fog bank like this off Champlain.  Cold lake water.

[J.Spin]

June 1^st is generally when I consider the snow season complete here at our site, so I can start finalizing the numbers.

Total season snowfall is the main parameter I track, so I’ll start with that.  There were certainly some dry spells with respect to total snowfall, but ultimately the season ended up with 160.6” here, which is about average for my period of record.  Below I’ve got the plot of how this season’s snowfall compared to the others in my data set, with the mean value for the data shown by the black dashed line.

[tamarack]

No nice graphics, but here are my numbers for those same years.  My average starting with 1998-99 is 88.97".  However, thru 2005-06 it was just 80.45" with 6 of 8 winters below the current average.  For the period of your records my average is 93.51 - will use 93.5 as I don't have hundredths for annual snowfall, only the averages.
Winter  Snowfall    +/- average
06-07        95.3        +1.8
07-08      142.3      +48.8
08-09      101.4        +7.9
09-10        64.8       -28.7
10-11     100.5         +7.0
11-12       68.0        -25.5
12-13       90.4          -3.1
13-14     101.3         +7.8
14-15     112.8       +19.3
15-16       48.2        -45.3
16-17     125.3       +31.8
17-18     105.5       +12.0
18-19     109.2       +15.7
19-20       85.1         -8.4
20-21       52.5       -41.0
Except for this past winter, our relationships to average showed only relatively minor discrepancies, perhaps worst in 14-15.  But the 20-21 difference is stark, 103% of average versus 56%, near average versus ratter.  As others have noticed, "normal" wx is merely the average of abnormal wx.



 

[powderfreak]

Friday evening walk after work.  What a great day.

[Froude]

21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A friend from the Hilton Hotel who’s the director of engineering/maintenance there shared these... I’m not sure I’ve seen a true fog bank like this off Champlain.  Cold lake water.

Very cool. Looks straight out of Downeast Maine. Lake temp is 56, I was in town last night and you can definitely feel the change in the air by the waterfront.

[tombo82685]

Hey, I have a question. I have a potential job offering in Montpelier area. How is that area for snowfall?  I saw they avg near 100”, but I know they are a bit lower in elevation so not sure where that value is taken from. Any info would be great. 

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

No nice graphics, but here are my numbers for those same years.  My average starting with 1998-99 is 88.97".  However, thru 2005-06 it was just 80.45" with 6 of 8 winters below the current average.  For the period of your records my average is 93.51 - will use 93.5 as I don't have hundredths for annual snowfall, only the averages.
Winter  Snowfall    +/- average
06-07        95.3        +1.8
07-08      142.3      +48.8
08-09      101.4        +7.9
09-10        64.8       -28.7
10-11     100.5         +7.0
11-12       68.0        -25.5
12-13       90.4          -3.1
13-14     101.3         +7.8
14-15     112.8       +19.3
15-16       48.2        -45.3
16-17     125.3       +31.8
17-18     105.5       +12.0
18-19     109.2       +15.7
19-20       85.1         -8.4
20-21       52.5       -41.0
Except for this past winter, our relationships to average showed only relatively minor discrepancies, perhaps worst in 14-15.  But the 20-21 difference is stark, 103% of average versus 56%, near average versus ratter.  As others have noticed, "normal" wx is merely the average of abnormal wx.

Thanks for the data - I put together the graphics for the difference from mean snowfall at our sites by season, and with disparate averages, using percentage to normalize seemed like the best way to facilitate the comparison.

As you noted, ’14-‘15 represented a somewhat substantial directional difference, with ’13-‘14 right next to it being a more muted version.  And historically during this period of record, that’s really been it for directional differences aside from ‘06-‘07, but that season’s data are so tight to the means that the differences are really inconsequential.  The rest of the differences have just been magnitude.

The data certain speak to the general NNE trends in seasonal snowfall we often see, with that horrendous ’15-‘16 season being an extreme, but effective, example.  The ’15-‘16 season was outrageously poor with respect to snowfall (an almost unbelievable season at more than 2 S.D. below the mean here at our site).  I think NNE had some of the largest deviations from average in the region that season, and even within NNE, I think NVT showed some of the largest deviations.  The whole season was quite poor region wide with respect to snowfall.

..and then we have the ’20-‘21 season.  It’s quite an outlier on the plot that stacks both the directionality and magnitude of difference between our two sites like nothing else in the data set.  It’s not at all like ’15-‘16 that had poor snowfall region wide.  Weren’t some SNE sites even above average on snowfall for the season?  So to see numbers at your site in the realm of ’15-‘16 (which it certainly looks like on the plot) would seem to make the season extremely anomalous.

If someone’s got access to it, or knows how to generate it, I think it would be very interesting to see the New England map for snowfall deviation from average for the ’20-‘21 season.  It seems that off to the east of here was affected the most, with NH affected somewhat, and then ME affected to an even greater extent?  What was it like for northern and eastern ME?