NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

[bwt3650]

On 8/9/2021 at 10:38 AM, J.Spin said:

The November snowfall and snowpack at our site can certainly give an idea of what the month is like with respect to snow in the Northern Greens, but of course, data specifically from the higher elevations of the mountains is going to be even better when it comes to thinking about ski conditions.  With that in mind, the plot below has the snowpack depth from the Mt. Mansfield Stake at Thanksgiving for all the years that are available in that data set.

I think that snowpack depth at that time of year does have some utility with respect to what you asked about (trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like in terms of skiing around here in the Northern Greens).  For folks that just want to know if there’s going to be any skiing, I don’t think the natural snowpack depth is too helpful.  Manmade snow is going to guarantee that there’s at least some skiing, for those resorts with the snowmaking firepower and desire to open terrain, at least 90-95% of the time.  The natural snowpack depth is essentially irrelevant when it comes to that aspect of the early season.

The natural snow depth is definitely helpful in getting a sense for how much extra terrain might be open beyond the usual early season snowmaking routes, how much natural terrain might be open, what backcountry options there might be, etc.  From depth alone, especially a single point, it’s hard to get a sense for the ski conditions because you don’t know if that depth is what just fell and there’s zero base below it, or it’s just the slushy accumulation that’s hanging on because it’s warmed up after an earlier storm came through, etc.  At a certain threshold of snowpack depth (I’ll just throw out 20 inches as an initial value for discussion), you start to hit a point where it won’t matter if the snow just fell, if it’s melting remnants from a previous storm, if it’s fresh snow atop an established base, or whatever.  At some point, there’s going to be enough natural snow in place that resorts are going to open additional terrain.

-If one uses the 20” snowpack depth threshold, that would suggest you’re looking at expanded skiing in about 20% of seasons.  I bet if we checked reports from those seasons in the plot where natural snow depth was ≥20”, you’re looking at substantial additional terrain being open for Thanksgiving.

-Just based on first impressions, I think that snowpack of ≥20” is a virtual slam dunk for additional terrain being open at the resorts, so a snowpack threshold of 16” is also worth a look.  With that threshold, you’re looking at about 30% of seasons with expanded skiing at Thanksgiving.

-The lowest threshold that I think might be practical (and this is definitely pushing it with respect to natural snow terrain being able to support lift-served levels of skiers) is probably around the 12” mark.  You can certainly pull it off on well-maintained moderate or low-angle terrain if the snow is dense, but this is definitely going to be pushing it for lift-served.  Some resorts are more liberal than others are when it comes to doing this sort of stuff.  That would put the occurrence of expanded skiing at Thanksgiving at about 40% of seasons.  That is unquestionably a higher percentage than reality based on my years of skiing around here, but we’ll just throw it out there as an upper limit.  Jay Peak does have that bit of extra snowfall bump above Mt. Mansfield, so they may be the closest of any resort to that percentage, but it’s still definitely an overestimate.

I’ve roughly estimated the 24” snowpack depth threshold at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as when people seem to start venturing into the most amenable off piste areas (trees).  Experience tells me that the point where skiing well-maintained trails begins is definitely below that depth, but I’m not sure how low.  I can certainly look at some reports from past seasons to try to get a sense for it.

When it comes to getting out for ski touring on low-angle, well-maintained, on-piste terrain with fat skis; that can certainly be done on less than 12” of snow without concern for hitting the ground.  You can do that on 10” of snow easily, or even 8” without even bottoming out if the snow is reasonably dense.  The mean depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake on Thanksgiving is 10.7”, which suggests that in the appropriate spots at elevation, one should have a chance to get out for some natural terrain touring on, or at least around (due to the temperature inconsistencies at that time of year) Thanksgiving in 50% of seasons.  I wouldn’t be surprised to find that to be the case if I checked my records; it sounds very plausible.

Great stuff..thanks, Jspin.  I think the 12” mark is probably the dividing line between all man made trails and a few of the more hospitable natural trails up here.  With the lack of “vail” snowmaking fire power, the natural really helps avoid doing laps on the jet and northway for the first two weeks.   This data gives a good picture of what the odds are of a strong start in late November.

Big starts seem to carry through up here too, as once into mid December, climatology in the northern greens should do its thing.  

[bwt3650]

23 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Let's hope for a repeat!

We’ve had places up here for two years now, phin. We’re due!

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Great stuff..thanks, Jspin.  I think the 12” mark is probably the dividing line between all man made trails and a few of the more hospitable natural trails up here.  With the lack of “vail” snowmaking fire power, the natural really helps avoid doing laps on the jet and northway for the first two weeks.   This data gives a good picture of what the odds are of a strong start in late November.

Big starts seem to carry through up here too, as once into mid December, climatology in the northern greens should do its thing.  

Getting that thick natural base down in November is an absolute game changer.

That year was a monster snowpack season due to that start.

Basically starting Dec 1st in 2018 with what we had last winter in Feb/Mar heart of winter.

[J.Spin]

On 8/9/2021 at 9:27 PM, powderfreak said:

Some November 2018 nostalgia... Snowvember.

That was like instant heavy dense snowpack over a series of QPF rich systems.

Yeah, I recorded 10 winter storms that month, with 8.60” of liquid.  My liquid records only go back to 2010, but that’s the wettest November I see in there.

In terms of winter storm distribution, the first one was right at the start of the month, but accumulations were minimal from what I see.  The real show started a third of the way into the month, so that means the remaining nine storms were packed into roughly 20 days.  That’s a very respectable pace of storms even for a midwinter month.

Following up on the PF nostalgia with some shots from the month - once we got to the 10th, the hits just kept on coming:

November 10^th

 

November 11^th

 

November 17^th

 

November 18^th

 

November 21^st

 

November 24^th

 

November 27^th

 

November 29^th

[backedgeapproaching]

Got to 87.1F today. Davis dew got up 77F--maybe elevated a bit by rain last night and not on a tarmac.  No 90s yet this season here yet--Thursday and Friday maybe last chance for the summer? We'll see.

That Covid thread is yikes to the 10th power---and without Phin too! Ha

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Got to 87.1F today. Davis dew got up 77F--maybe elevated a bit by rain last night and not on a tarmac.  No 90s yet this season here yet--Thursday and Friday maybe last chance for the summer? We'll see.

I think we’ve had a rather typical summer up here in terms of temperatures if you average it all out.  I believe this current hot spell is the 3^rd one we’ve seen?  I know there was at least one or two early hot spells back in May or June.  I’m not sure if we’ve actually hit 90 F at our place or not, but we certainly haven’t had one of those classic stretches of midsummer highs in the 90s F that heats up the swimming holes sufficiently.  I’m sure we would have hit one of our favorite spots or at least gone river tubing if we did.  It may have been a timing issue in that heat in May or June just isn’t quite going to do it because the water is still too cold, and then July was on the cooler/rainier side.

You have me thinking though; this may be the stretch to finally get out for some river tubing, even if we’re not getting into the 90s.  With at least relatively warm overnight lows, it helps keep water temperatures up.  We’re into August now, and we’re even passing that magic August 10^th barrier when it really gets hard to have sufficient heat for that most comfortable swimming.  These next couple of days may be about the last chance for high summer feel as you noted, because even above average temperatures past this point of the season can’t quite do it.

[J.Spin]

The November data for days with snowfall definitely prompted some great discussion, and brought to light how good November 2018 was around here.

Next up in the progression is December, and while this past December was certainly lean on total snowfall, the data show that it was solid with respect to days with snow.

Overall, the plot suggest that December is actually quite the dependable month in terms of snowfall days, with 2/3 of the month delivering new snow on average.  That means the wintry vibe should generally be there, which is appreciated by visitors as the ski and holiday seasons build.  December definitely represents a bump up from November, where the average is just over 1/3 of the month for days with snowfall.

…and then of course there’s good ol’ 2015-2016 that everyone talks about, sticking out like a sore thumb!

[Lava Rock]

Mtns keep raking it in on the ME/NH border

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[rimetree]

Showers approaching Duck Lake (LakevilleME). Storms look to fail but at least it’ll be comfortable tonight.


.

[tamarack]

Nice.
Ever been to the larger Duck Lake maybe 20 road miles to the south?  Never fished it but I've been told the big ones hold to the south central shore where the big hemlocks come to water's edge.  Couple of awesome water access campsites on the west shore, too.

[rimetree]

Nice.
Ever been to the larger Duck Lake maybe 20 road miles to the south?  Never fished it but I've been told the big ones hold to the south central shore where the big hemlocks come to water's edge.  Couple of awesome water access campsites on the west shore, too.

I have not but sounds like a nice place to check out some time. Fishing here is hit and miss. Got a white perch yesterday but it’s been slow. Turned into a nice eve



.

[Patriot21]

45 at 5, a welcome change to the past week

[backedgeapproaching]

11 hours ago, Patriot21 said:

45 at 5, a welcome change to the past week

For sure--low was 49.7F here, I would take those lows all summer.  I know some would not agree and need it warmer.  OK, so maybe 55F for the low and 75-80F for the high would be ideal--without dews of course. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Heat and dews were good for warming up the Rec Park pool though this week, felt near 80F or so. Only thing that weather is good for.

 

[Patriot21]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

For sure--low was 49.7F here, I would take those lows all summer.  I know some would not agree and need it warmer.  OK, so maybe 55F for the low and 75-80F for the high would be ideal--without dews of course. 

I'd take them too. Such a nice way to start off the day. Those dews and temperatures were killer, had the curtains closed all week. Living like vampires.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Patriot21 said:

I'd take them too. Such a nice way to start off the day. Those dews and temperatures were killer, had the curtains closed all week. Living like vampires.

That’s our routine as well. We face almost directly east and have a big picture window that acts like a magnifying glass. We close all the windows and the insulated shades all day and run an AC in the bedroom. The house stays 75°-77° on the hottest days. Feels like west living in a drug house lol. Windows get flung open after the sun goes down to let cooler air in, when it’s actually cooler. 

[alex]

39 this morning for the second time this August

[klw]

Happy Battle of Bennington day to all our Vermonters!

[Patriot21]

10 hours ago, mreaves said:

That’s our routine as well. We face almost directly east and have a big picture window that acts like a magnifying glass. We close all the windows and the insulated shades all day and run an AC in the bedroom. The house stays 75°-77° on the hottest days. Feels like west living in a drug house lol. Windows get flung open after the sun goes down to let cooler air in, when it’s actually cooler. 

We usually open the windows when the sun goes down too except if it's wicked muggy. We face directly south. We have one window AC for the entire downstairs and blow the air around with fans if necessary, but just having those curtains closed makes such a big difference. We got some thermal curtains this past winter and they do help.

[backedgeapproaching]

Yep, I have those insulated cellular blinds on all windows and they help ALOT keeping the house cooler while the AC is running during peak daylight hours.  They help in winter too keeping heat in.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, alex said:

39 this morning for the second time this August

Saw the same for HIE.  Probably 43-44 here, love it.

[wxeyeNH]

4 hours ago, alex said:

39 this morning for the second time this August

Hi Alex,

Hope you and the family had a good summer.  What would you guess as your first frost date?  Around September 1rst?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hi Alex,

Hope you and the family had a good summer.  What would you guess as your first frost date?  Around September 1rst?

I'd guess closer to the 10th  there.  Median here is 9/19.  Other than 2011 (10/6) first frosts have all come in September here - 22 of 23.

[backedgeapproaching]

38 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'd guess closer to the 10th  there.  Median here is 9/19.  Other than 2011 (10/6) first frosts have all come in September here - 22 of 23.

Yea, without looking deeper into data, I would say 9/1 sounds a little early. Maybe in the oxen and knickers era..

[alex]

8 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hi Alex,

Hope you and the family had a good summer.  What would you guess as your first frost date?  Around September 1rst?

Hey! Great summer - but a tad cooler than I’d have liked. No biggie, still awesome. I only have a few years of data but it’s been somewhere between August 20 and Sep 20 so average is probably somewhere right around the first week of September. Unfortunately all you need is a clear calm night and boom, plants are toast even if the airmass is not that cold. Coming up fast! 

[J.Spin]

For January snowfall days, the data show that last season was quite impressive among the data set.  It’s interesting because both total snowfall (41.0”) and number of storms (12) were rather average this past January, but boy did it snow for “days and days and days”.  January is a long month with 31 days, and to get snow on 29 of them is well above the mean as the plot shows.  Recording snow on 29 days of a month is actually the highest I see in my records, so that’s another feather in the cap of winter 2020-2021, which generally felt like an “average at best” type of season.

[powderfreak]

0.69” in the Stratus this evening.  I’m sure there’s some slight difference between manual and electronic   A soaking rain that lasted for most of the day.  Even the persistent mist and -RN made for a damp synoptic rain event.

Places just south of here got double these amounts and more. Coastal storm type gradient.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

0.69” in the Stratus this evening.  I’m sure there’s some slight difference between manual and electronic   A soaking rain that lasted for most of the day.  Even the persistent mist and -RN made for a damp synoptic rain event.

Places just south of here got double these amounts and more. Coastal storm type gradient.

Yeah, 1.54” here today and 2.12” at a PWS I follow in Northfield. 

[tamarack]

Got 0.34" from Freddie.  S. Maine (York/Cumberland) had the 1-2" total that had been progged for here.  Hope to get siggy RA and little wind from Henri.

[Patriot21]

Had just under 2.5" in the bucket yesterday that I flip over before rain events lol