NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

[powderfreak]

Last night’s fog/mist was wild.  The droplets had to be as large as possible and still be suspended in the air.  It was sort of like being in the misting part of the veggie section in a supermarket lol.

[backedgeapproaching]

51.2F glorious degrees last night.  Felt like an arctic front yesterday evening when it was 61/59F with a breeze.

[Patriot21]

55° at 8:30pm, feels great. Must be at or below dew point as the grass is wet

[powderfreak]

Suns out and it’s torrential rain.  Very odd.  There has to be a rainbow somewhere.

[Patriot21]

Heavy rain and thunder/lightening right now. Had about 3/4" overnight

[mreaves]

.40” today. I don’t think it’s been overly wet but after the last 1-2 years of dry, it feels like we live in a rainforest. I can’t imagine getting 15”+ like parts of SNE. 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, mreaves said:

.40” today. I don’t think it’s been overly wet but after the last 1-2 years of dry, it feels like we live in a rainforest. I can’t imagine getting 15”+ like parts of SNE. 

Stratus in the garden had 0.20 even up here.  Several hour soaking it seems regionwide with more water the further south in latitude one went.  00z GFS barely had measurable here.  Definitely over-performed the 30-50% POPs from this morning’s zone forecasts. The recorded amounts aren’t high but driving around late this afternoon from Stowe to Waterbury to BTV in both directions, it was wet with steady rainfall.

[mreaves]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Stratus in the garden had 0.20 even up here.  Several hour soaking it seems regionwide with more water the further south in latitude one went.  00z GFS barely had measurable here.  Definitely over-performed the 30-50% POPs from this morning’s zone forecasts. The recorded amounts aren’t high but driving around late this afternoon from Stowe to Waterbury to BTV in both directions, it was wet with steady rainfall.

This is the type of precip pattern that JSpin would tag with the bread and butter picture in winter. 

[tamarack]

We were way from the house yesterday afternoon, had some light showers in the evening, and since there were no puddles I went to the gauge thinking maybe 0.05".  Surprisingly found 0.44", bringing July to just a penny shy of 5".  The mid-afternoon echoes, which didn't look all that great on radar, must've overperformed.

[Patriot21]

51 at 9pm

[J.Spin]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:45 PM, J.Spin said:

 

That’s actually great timing on the inquiry LaGrange, days with snow was the next category I was planning to cover.  Phin’s recollection is correct, based on the data I’ve collected so far, the average days with snowfall per season at our site is around 100.  I didn’t track days with snowfall before joining CoCoRaHS, so I only have data from 2010 onward, but the plot is below.  This past season didn’t have much to lay claim to since it was kind of lackluster in general snow stats, but days with snowfall was a category in which it edges out all the other seasons in the data set.  Therefore, at least in our area, we had plenty of days with snow this past season, even if it was only average in terms of total snowfall.

 

So as the plot above shows, I found that last season had the highest number of days with snowfall in our records.  After looking at the data though, I see that it’s going to be able to claim another honor in that area:  the winter of 2020-2021 was above average in snowfall days for all eight months of the snowfall season.  Beyond being top of the heap for total days with new snow, the season also showed a remarkable level of consistency in that area.  No other season in the data set even has seven months with an above average number of snowfall days; the next best performer managed to do it for six months.

To get a better feel for how last season performed in terms of days with new snow, we can look at the individual months, starting with October as usual.  This past October was actually quite typical for days with snowfall, but it did slip its way above the average:

[wxeyeNH]

Just a quick rant about the awful forecast presentation I just watched on NH only TV station WMUR.  Eric Weglarz 5pm forecast went on and on about the heavy rain threat.  I don't know where he gets his graphics but I don't see anything bringing heavy rain into the state except for the extreme SE.  Never did he say most of the state is going to stay dry.  If I watched this from my area, Newfound Lake I would sure think we have a very good chance of heavy rain.  It's not going to happen this far NW.

Okay,  I feel better getting this off my chest.

 

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just a quick rant about the awful forecast presentation I just watched on NH only TV station WMUR.  Eric Weglarz 5pm forecast went on and on about the heavy rain threat.  I don't know where he gets his graphics but I don't see anything bringing heavy rain into the state except for the extreme SE.  Never did he say most of the state is going to stay dry.  If I watched this from my area, Newfound Lake I would sure think we have a very good chance of heavy rain.  It's not going to happen this far NW.

Okay,  I feel better getting this off my chest.

 

This system appeared to have all the mets baffled, with models switching back and forth from inland downpours to coastal only and a narrow band of the heavy stuff.  Have not had a drop here while Downeast had an inch-plus and EMA/ERI had spots with 3"+.  Mr. Weglarz was probably not the only one to bust bigtime due to choosing the wrong model to trust.  

[powderfreak]

It’s 60F along the CC golf course and river.  63F in the lower village by Publuc Safety building, 65F in the 1400ft pocket of the upper west branch, and 73F in well-mixed 1500ft Spruce base area.

13F difference depending on low elevation/calm vs high els./wind.

[J.Spin]

Looking at snowfall days for November, we can see that they were slightly above average this past season.  Although we don’t seem to get huge storms in November, it certainly comes across as quite a wintry month in terms of days with snow.  This is especially true over the past four seasons, where on average; half the days of the month have had snow.

[bwt3650]

58 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Looking at snowfall days for November, we can see that they were slightly above average this past season.  Although we don’t seem to get huge storms in November, it certainly comes across as quite a wintry month in terms of days with snow.  This is especially true over the past four seasons, where on average; half the days of the month have had snow.

Do you have snowfall depth data for November too; specifically, Thanksgiving?  Though last year had 12 days with snowfall, I think Thanksgiving had only a slushy inch on the ground at Jay and we were skiing on one trail for opening day.  I remember it snowing a few times the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but I think there was a washout right around then.  I think 19-20 was similar, but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.  I've only been up at Jay for a few years and rarely cared about early season up there before that, so I'm trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like outside of the past five years or so.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Do you have snowfall depth data for November too; specifically, Thanksgiving?  Though last year had 12 days with snowfall, I think Thanksgiving had only a slushy inch on the ground at Jay and we were skiing on one trail for opening day.  I remember it snowing a few times the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but I think there was a washout right around then.  I think 19-20 was similar, but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.  I've only been up at Jay for a few years and rarely cared about early season up there before that, so I'm trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like outside of the past five years or so.

2018 probably. The numbers were epic in Randolph for November 2018. 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

2018 probably. The numbers were epic in Randolph for November 2018. 

Yeah that set the Mansfield stake November record… and it was hefty snow.  That base lasted all winter.  Glade skiing from November to May.

There was a solid dense like 24-30” on the ground even at 1500ft.  A very sharp gradient was present around 1200ft.  

Snowvember was the term in ski country.

[mreaves]

Decent storm rolled through these parts. .62” in the last 30-45 minutes. Decent thunder and lightning too. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Decent storm rolled through these parts. .62” in the last 30-45 minutes. Decent thunder and lightning too. 

Was surprised with how persistent the band was.  Initial edge was water logged, local PWS rates were 3-4"/hr to begin except for the lower village.

Stratus had 0.92" and it seems the local stations like less than a mile north of here broke 1".  1-2 miles south west though was more like two-thirds of an inch.  Very localized differences but a solid soak.  Even some spots exceeding 1.5", especially west slopes.  1.25" at the base of the ski area.

[#NoPoles]

The leaves are changing. Noticed the first patches of color on July 30th. At first I just thought it was weak/sick trees...but I've been watching the patches for a week, and they keep expanding and new ones have popped up. Seems to be mainly red maples and birches

[tamarack]

Two sugar maples a mile from us are changing.  They were 1st to change last year but it was about Sept 1 when it became as noticeable as it is now.  Those trees are only 10' from pavement and few tree species are as salt-sensitive as SM, so I'm confident those trees have serious health issues. 

[J.Spin]

18 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Do you have snowfall depth data for November too; specifically, Thanksgiving?

I do have the snow depth data for Thanksgiving at our site, so I can start with that.  More directly relevant for conditions on the slopes will be snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake of course, so I’ll see if I can get those data together later.  For now though, here’s the Thanksgiving snow depth at our site.  The past couple of seasons have had typical snow depths, with an inch or two of coverage, but as folks have indicated, Thanksgiving 2018 was up there with the deeper seasons.  I have plots of the progression of snow depth at our site over the course of the month of November as well, and that gives one a better sense of the monthly progression, so I’ll try to put that together next.

[J.Spin]

21 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Though last year had 12 days with snowfall, I think Thanksgiving had only a slushy inch on the ground at Jay and we were skiing on one trail for opening day.  I remember it snowing a few times the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but I think there was a washout right around then.  I think 19-20 was similar, but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.  I've only been up at Jay for a few years and rarely cared about early season up there before that, so I'm trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like outside of the past five years or so.

I put together a plot of November snow progression for each season at our site.  The plot and some periods of note:

-As people in the thread have mentioned, that 2018-2019 season (bright pink line) is noteworthy with respect to November snowpack.  Once the snow on the ground returned on the 12^th of November, there was no going back, right through the end of the month.  The skiing was simply going off in the mountains:

 

-During November in the 2019-2020 season (green line), the snow wasn’t quite as deep as the year before, but it was quite persistent.  There was just that one dip down to a trace on the 11^th, but there was coverage from the 7^th of month onward.  And that was in the valley of course.  It wasn’t as deep as some Novembers, but there was plenty of snow for touring at elevation:

-November in the 2014-2015 season (yellow line) had a strong finish.  There was some great natural snow out there, even starting well before Thanksgiving:

-Last season (orange line) was unique with that impressive period of snow at the start of the month.  No other season has anything like that so early in November at our site during my period of record.  Accumulations were nothing extravagant at elevation, but it was definitely enough to get out for some touring:

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Guesstimating Bromley had 36ish OTG in Nov 2018 mid slope and up when I was out there.  Crazy, think that was peak depth for the season.

[J.Spin]

On 8/7/2021 at 3:25 PM, bwt3650 said:

Do you have snowfall depth data for November too; specifically, Thanksgiving?  Though last year had 12 days with snowfall, I think Thanksgiving had only a slushy inch on the ground at Jay and we were skiing on one trail for opening day.  I remember it snowing a few times the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but I think there was a washout right around then.  I think 19-20 was similar, but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.  I've only been up at Jay for a few years and rarely cared about early season up there before that, so I'm trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like outside of the past five years or so.

The November snowfall and snowpack at our site can certainly give an idea of what the month is like with respect to snow in the Northern Greens, but of course, data specifically from the higher elevations of the mountains is going to be even better when it comes to thinking about ski conditions.  With that in mind, the plot below has the snowpack depth from the Mt. Mansfield Stake at Thanksgiving for all the years that are available in that data set.

I think that snowpack depth at that time of year does have some utility with respect to what you asked about (trying to get a better idea of what late November looks like in terms of skiing around here in the Northern Greens).  For folks that just want to know if there’s going to be any skiing, I don’t think the natural snowpack depth is too helpful.  Manmade snow is going to guarantee that there’s at least some skiing, for those resorts with the snowmaking firepower and desire to open terrain, at least 90-95% of the time.  The natural snowpack depth is essentially irrelevant when it comes to that aspect of the early season.

The natural snow depth is definitely helpful in getting a sense for how much extra terrain might be open beyond the usual early season snowmaking routes, how much natural terrain might be open, what backcountry options there might be, etc.  From depth alone, especially a single point, it’s hard to get a sense for the ski conditions because you don’t know if that depth is what just fell and there’s zero base below it, or it’s just the slushy accumulation that’s hanging on because it’s warmed up after an earlier storm came through, etc.  At a certain threshold of snowpack depth (I’ll just throw out 20 inches as an initial value for discussion), you start to hit a point where it won’t matter if the snow just fell, if it’s melting remnants from a previous storm, if it’s fresh snow atop an established base, or whatever.  At some point, there’s going to be enough natural snow in place that resorts are going to open additional terrain.

-If one uses the 20” snowpack depth threshold, that would suggest you’re looking at expanded skiing in about 20% of seasons.  I bet if we checked reports from those seasons in the plot where natural snow depth was ≥20”, you’re looking at substantial additional terrain being open for Thanksgiving.

-Just based on first impressions, I think that snowpack of ≥20” is a virtual slam dunk for additional terrain being open at the resorts, so a snowpack threshold of 16” is also worth a look.  With that threshold, you’re looking at about 30% of seasons with expanded skiing at Thanksgiving.

-The lowest threshold that I think might be practical (and this is definitely pushing it with respect to natural snow terrain being able to support lift-served levels of skiers) is probably around the 12” mark.  You can certainly pull it off on well-maintained moderate or low-angle terrain if the snow is dense, but this is definitely going to be pushing it for lift-served.  Some resorts are more liberal than others are when it comes to doing this sort of stuff.  That would put the occurrence of expanded skiing at Thanksgiving at about 40% of seasons.  That is unquestionably a higher percentage than reality based on my years of skiing around here, but we’ll just throw it out there as an upper limit.  Jay Peak does have that bit of extra snowfall bump above Mt. Mansfield, so they may be the closest of any resort to that percentage, but it’s still definitely an overestimate.

I’ve roughly estimated the 24” snowpack depth threshold at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as when people seem to start venturing into the most amenable off piste areas (trees).  Experience tells me that the point where skiing well-maintained trails begins is definitely below that depth, but I’m not sure how low.  I can certainly look at some reports from past seasons to try to get a sense for it.

When it comes to getting out for ski touring on low-angle, well-maintained, on-piste terrain with fat skis; that can certainly be done on less than 12” of snow without concern for hitting the ground.  You can do that on 10” of snow easily, or even 8” without even bottoming out if the snow is reasonably dense.  The mean depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake on Thanksgiving is 10.7”, which suggests that in the appropriate spots at elevation, one should have a chance to get out for some natural terrain touring on, or at least around (due to the temperature inconsistencies at that time of year) Thanksgiving in 50% of seasons.  I wouldn’t be surprised to find that to be the case if I checked my records; it sounds very plausible.

[tamarack]

Much less Thanksgiving pack here, not a surprise.  9 of 23 T'days had 1"+ depth, topped by 11" in two different years. 
--In 2014 the final 5.5" of a 13" storm came in the overnight, ending well before dawn.  That's the biggest storm and only 10"+ I've recorded in my 48 Novembers in Maine.  
--Novie 2018 had more snow and mores storms than any other here, and only 1983 in Ft. Kent had more.  T'day was just after a 3" event and with a max temp of 11°, no melting.
Next most was 8" in 2011, as the day before had a 9.7" storm, the biggest that "winter".
Two years had a 4" pack.
--2005 featured a 3.7" storm, with 6 hours of moderate snow during the middle of the day.  (Also EF0 and EF1 tornados on the midcoast!)
--Novie 2019 was slightly colder than 2018 though with nothing like T'day the year before.  2.4" fell on the holiday itself.
In 2002 there was 2" remaining from the 7" storm 10 days earlier.  Had 1" cover in 2000, 2016 and last year.  2000 also featured 0.1" new and 2016 had 0.2"  Those 2 plus the storms noted above are the 5 T'days with measurable.  Last year was the only "T" for snow.

Thanksgiving days were colder, wetter and snowier than the averages for Nov 22-28, the possible T'day dates.  Those averages are in parentheses, below:
Temp:  27.6°   (29.6°)  More than half of the 2.0° BN came from T'day 2018, which was 27° BN.  (Most recent years, 2010-20, ran -4.7 and averaged 0.74" snow but only 0.16" precip.)
Precip:  0.23"  (0.19")
Snow:  0.52"  (0.31")

[powderfreak]

Some November 2018 nostalgia... Snowvember.

First two are from the base area and then third is from up high.  That was like instant heavy dense snowpack over a series of QPF rich systems.

[PhineasC]

Let's hope for a repeat!

[J.Spin]

On 8/7/2021 at 3:25 PM, bwt3650 said:

...but one Thanksgiving weekend a few years back had the mountain loaded with Snow. The tram was running in November or the first week of December with most of the mountain was open.

 

On 8/7/2021 at 3:33 PM, PhineasC said:

2018 probably. The numbers were epic in Randolph for November 2018. 

 

On 8/7/2021 at 6:35 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah that set the Mansfield stake November record… and it was hefty snow.  That base lasted all winter.  Glade skiing from November to May.

There was a solid dense like 24-30” on the ground even at 1500ft.  A very sharp gradient was present around 1200ft.  

Snowvember was the term in ski country.

Yeah, that was a solid November.  Even down here in the valley bottom, the data show it.  For our site I see that November 2019 was actually tops in the number of storms with 12, but November 2018 still had 10 storms, 18 days with snowfall, and almost 35” of snow down here in the valley.  We’ve really had a solid run of Novembers as of late, and the data clearly show it.  It might come as bit of a shock when one of those weaker Novembers comes around.