NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

[J.Spin]

As we move on to looking at the data for first 8” snowfall of the season, we shift from November into December, with the mean and median dates of December 13^th and 6^th, respectively.  The visual of the plot speaks to that difference between the median and mean nicely, with an obvious skew of the distribution of dates toward the end of November/beginning of December, but a few outliers later in the season.

Getting into these larger snowfalls is where the 2020-2021 season moved from being at the very front of the pack due to the early November storms we had, to nearly the tail end of the pack.  Indeed, it took until January 17^th to get an 8” snowfall this past season, which is more than a month later than average.  With the relatively weak December that we experienced, it’s not too surprising that the first 8” snowfall was delayed until things started to pick back up in mid-January.

[wxeyeNH]

I really enjoy living up relatively high with a good view.  Not just for winter but for summer storms too.  Wish it was a bit more west too. Beggers can't be choosers most people would kill for this view.  I could cut down the forest to the west as we own that land too but we have enough open space.

Video of last night's thunderstorm.  Some nice cloud to ground strikes but didn't capture any in this video.  The lightning rod at the end of the video got hit once while I was in the sunroom and sparks went flying but it saved the house.

 

[J.Spin]

On 6/26/2021 at 11:14 AM, tamarack said:

Adding 4"+ and 10"+.    10"+ is storm total while all the others are calendar day (except largest).
Earliest flakes, accum.,   1"+          4"+        10"+        Largest
98    11/3       11/17       12/8       12/30      3/6-7      14.5"  3/6-7
99    10/4       11/10       11/13      1/16        none        8.2"  1/25-26
00    10/9       10/29       10/29     10/29     12/31      19.0"  3/30-31  (48" depth on 3/31.  Even in Fort Kent never had that much on 3/31 or later.)
01    10/31     11/1         11/29     12/15      none         9.0"  3/20-21
02    11/1       11/1         11/4        11/17      1/4          13.8"  1/4-5
03    10/22     10/23       12/6        12/6       12/6-7     24.0"  12/6-7
04    11/21     11/21       12/7        2/10      2/10-11    21.0"  2/10-11
05    10/23     10/25       10/25     12/16      none         5.9"   1/29-30  (Most recent previous winter I've seen w/o a 6"+ event was 1967-68 in NNJ.)
06    10/23     12/7         12/8        12/8      2/14-15     18.5"  4/4-5
07    11/8       11/20       12/3        12/3      12/3-4       12.5"  1/1-2
08    10/29     11/25       11/25     12/17   12/21-22    24.5" 2/22-23
09    10/13     11/5         11/6        12/9       2/25-28    10.7" 2/25-28  (2.67" LE, 4:1 mashed potatoes) 
10    10/22     10/31       11/26      12/27     4/1-2        15.1"  4/1-2
11    10/29     10/29       10/30      10/30     none          9.7"  11/23
12    11/5       11/8          11/8        12/17     2/8-9       12.5"  3/19-20
13    11/10     11/10       12/2        12/15     12/15      13.5"  3/12-13
14    11/1       11/2         11/14       11/26   11/26-27   20.0"  1/27-28
15    10/18     11/23      12/29       12/29      none          8.5"  1/12-13
16    10/25     11/21      11/25       12/12   12/29-30    21.0"  12/29-30 and 2/12-13
17    11/10     11/16      12/9         12/25      1/4           13.0"  1/4
18    10/13     10/27      10/27      11/13     1/19-20     19.9"  3/7-9
19    10/25     11/8        11/11      12/31     3/23-24     10.3"  3/23-24
20    10/26     11/3        11/25       12/5        none          9.5"   2/2
Earliest flakes; accum;  1"+;      4"+        10"+      Winter's largest
Avg   10/27    11/9       11/22     12/10        1/21          14.5"
Med. 10/26    11/8       11/25     12/15       1/4             13.5"
OCT    15           6              3             2           6 w/none         0
NOV     8          16            12            3                1                   1
DEC      0           1              8            16               6                  1.5
JAN                                                   1                3                   7
FEB                                                    1                4                  4.5
MAR                                                                    2                   7
APR                                                                                          2

Never had 1"+ w/o an earlier T/0.1"+.  Closest was 2011.  Only "triplets" were 10/29/00 (accum, 1", 4") and 2/10[11]/05 (4", 10", largest)

As we move on to the 10” snowfall data, I referenced Tamarack’s earlier post, since he’d included 10” snowfall data there.

Mean and median dates for first 10” snowfall in our data set are Dec 17^th, and Dec 13^th, respectively.  Last season was near the back of the pack, which is consistent with the way larger storms were simply hard to come by around here during the 2020-2021 season.  One thing that is quickly obvious in the lower right of the plot is that both of the past couple of seasons have been slow to reach that 10” snowfall threshold.

[tamarack]

Nice to have at least one 10"+ event each year.

June data:
Avg max:  77.07  +5.56    2 days 90+, 90 on 6/7 and 92 on 6/28.  The +17.2 departure on 6/7 is the greatest for any June day.
Avg min:   52.13  +2.82   Coolest, 37 on 6/24
Avg mean: 64.60 +4.19  2nd warmest (65.12, 6/99) but had most CDDs, 89 (84 in '99)  The 80.0 mean on 6/28 is warmest for any day here.  (93/66/79.5, 7/3/02)

Precip:  1.05"  -4.03" and driest for any June here (1.22", 2004)   Wettest day:  0.27" on 6/21  (Unforecast little shower that affected only the Rt 2 corridor west of BGR.)
                                    Had 2 TS and lots of near misses, especially on 6/30
2021 precip thru June is 14.07".  That's 62% of avg and -8.72".

[mreaves]

.55" overnight but only .26" at MPV.  

[tamarack]

A whopping 0.29" overnight, biggest event since Memorial Day.  Looks like more is blossoming in VT (he said hopefully).

[PhineasC]

PWS is saying .56” so far. Best rain in quite some time. I think several inches are needed to make up the deficit. Rainy season in the Randolph desert.

[tamarack]

Total up to 0.33".  Just cloudy at 11:15 with a nice summery 53°.  Was 63 at my 9 PM obs last evening and this afternoon won't get close to there, so another of the many cheap highs.

[PhineasC]

Finally getting some decent rain in here. PWS says 1.40” now total but I’m sure that’s high. 

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Finally getting some decent rain in here. PWS says 1.40” now total but I’m sure that’s high. 

Tell me you didn’t leave the Delaware shore for this weather abortion up north for the 4th?!

We went for a hike this afternoon in sheet mist and fog with occasional rain.  We look as wet as the dog.

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tell me you didn’t leave the Delaware shore for this weather abortion up north for the 4th?!

We went for a hike this afternoon in sheet mist and fog with occasional rain.  We look as wet as the dog.

Nah, I am in MD. 4th party down here this year.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Finally getting some decent rain in here. PWS says 1.40” now total but I’m sure that’s high. 

Radar suggests a tall wall along the ME/NH border.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Nah, I am in MD. 4th party down here this year.

Ha whew.  You always get me with the “here” phrasing like you are up there.  Glutton for punishment from your wife if you dragged her into that misty dark weather from summery mid-Atlantic .

[powderfreak]

It was 51F on Mansfield in the rain when we were up there.  It was 50F in the rain on Christmas afternoon looking at the data.

Similar experience both holidays.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Radar suggests a tall wall along the ME/NH border.  

Tamarack, I don't know what you did to anger the rain gods so much.

[backedgeapproaching]

I mean what a dry spell for the Tamarack region.  Horrible winter and then dust bowl summer while parts of SNE have 15-20 inches since May 1st. Unreal.

Think I had about 2" the past 3-4 days and feel like I got Steined a bit.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I mean what a dry spell for the Tamarack region.  Horrible winter and then dust bowl summer while parts of SNE have 15-20 inches since May 1st. Unreal.

Think I had about 2" the past 3-4 days and feel like I got Steined a bit.

The firehose that is seemingly always over SNE is just crazy. I watched it from a distance for years but seeing it now actively screwing me in events is something else entirely. And yet a couple of them always whine about a drought...

@dendrite warned me about this. I always assumed NNE life was about socked-in clouds and drizzle for days, with things being generally wet. That has not been my experience at all. It goes long stretches with little cloud cover and precipitation and then dumps in 2-3 days all at once, rinse and repeat.

Today was a nice soak. It was needed up there. I haven't been around much this summer but I always worry about the well for the fall when we start coming back up more.

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The firehose that is seemingly always over SNE is just crazy. I watched it from a distance for years but seeing it now actively screwing me in events is something else entirely. And yet a couple of them always whine about a drought...

@dendrite warned me about this. I always assumed NNE life was about socked-in clouds and drizzle for days, with things being generally wet. That has not been my experience at all. It goes long stretches with little cloud cover and precipitation and then dumps in 2-3 days all at once, rinse and repeat.

Today was a nice soak. It was needed up there. I haven't been around much this summer but I always worry about the well for the fall when we start coming back up more.

They stick out over the ocean.  It's a QPF heavy spot when the pattern is there.  Especially any upper level divergence along with S/SE/E flow off the Atlantic.  If you go from Maine coast to NJ coast, you can see the zone that sticks out into the water.  That's climo.

The NNE ski town saying is "You come for the winters, but stay for the summers."  The summers are great with long stretches of dry, chamber of commerce puffy white clouds.  Summer is what really gets people stoked up here to be honest, tourism is even higher than winter.

You definitely don't feel screwed by any means if it's not flash flooding , you want to be outside hiking, biking, swimming, wandering around in nature.  Not stuck inside while it rains.  No one complains up north when it's dry. It's just that recreation-all-the-time mentality; from 5am until 9pm you can be outside having fun in the summer... hiking the ice gulch over there, the Presidentials, playing in the field, exploring the forest.  What a place to be outside for the kids.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Tamarack, I don't know what you did to anger the rain gods so much.

Couldn't get anything from the west or south, but now from the east?  Had 0.30" by 7 AM and hoping the bright echoes over the BGR area hold together long enough to add a good bit.  (GYX not optimistic.)

[J.Spin]

On 7/1/2021 at 10:07 AM, tamarack said:

Nice to have at least one 10"+ event each year.

As the snowfall size increases, eventually it becomes impractical to monitor first occurrence dates because they’re just too infrequent, so the 12” threshold is as high as I go in my data.  Mean and median occurrence for first 12” snowfall in the data set here are right around the end of December/beginning of January, so this past season was certainly on the slow side for first 12” snowfall, but still ahead of a number of seasons where it didn’t occur until February.

[backedgeapproaching]

Mother nature with the big FU to New England. I mean you don't have to go very far in most directions to get some breaks in the OVC.

 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Mother nature with the big FU to New England. I mean you don't have to go very far in most directions to get some breaks in the OVC.

 

 

I think we might be able to get some this afternoon.  Unless it's self destructing breaks that destabilize, ha.

I sort of am hoping some low cloud cover stays around for tonight's fireworks... they can be pretty damn cool reflecting off low cloud bases at like 2500ft.

[wxeyeNH]

Better day today than I was expecting.  Some sunny breaks.  Got up to 69F briefly.  I was not paying attention to the weather around supper time and then looked at radar to see showers moving into the Newfound Area.  Really pouring, just in time to ruin a lot of barbecues.

 About .15" so far with moderate to heavy rain currently falling

 

[tamarack]

22 hours ago, J.Spin said:

As the snowfall size increases, eventually it becomes impractical to monitor first occurrence dates because they’re just too infrequent, so the 12” threshold is as high as I go in my data.  Mean and median occurrence for first 12” snowfall in the data set here are right around the end of December/beginning of January, so this past season was certainly on the slow side for first 12” snowfall, but still ahead of a number of seasons where it didn’t occur until February.

 

Eight of 23 winters have failed to produce a 12" storm, including the most recent 3 - first time having consecutive winters w/o a "footer" and now a threepeat. 

Yesterday's event dropped 0.88" - more would've been nice but the slow and steady allowed maximum value for a modest total.

[J.Spin]

On 7/5/2021 at 8:52 AM, tamarack said:

Eight of 23 winters have failed to produce a 12" storm, including the most recent 3 - first time having consecutive winters w/o a "footer" and now a threepeat. 

At least in terms of average numbers at our site, snowfall occurrence with respect to size really drops off below the “once a season” level when the 20” threshold is reached.  The list of snowfall sizes that I track in my data set are shown below, where the average number of occurrences per season is plotted.  I have snowfalls up to the 48” threshold counted, although as the data indicate, I haven’t yet recorded a 48” snowfall at our site.

Snowfalls above the 30” threshold seem to be relatively infrequent at our site in the valley, but the numbers change notably by simply going up in elevation in the Northern Greens.  Based on my years of observation, a good way to obtain a rough estimate for snowfall occurrence in the higher elevations of the Northern Greens can be obtained by just doubling the snowfall sizes shown in my data set.  Therefore, if our site averages one 18”+ snowfall a season as shown in the plot, then the higher elevations of the Northern Greens should average approximately one 36”+ snowfall a season.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

At least in terms of average numbers at our site, snowfall occurrence with respect to size really drops off below the “once a season” level when the 20” threshold is reached.  The list of snowfall sizes that I track in my data set are shown below, where the average number of occurrences per season is plotted.  I have snowfalls up to the 48” threshold counted, although as the data indicate, I haven’t yet recorded a 48” snowfall at our site.

Snowfalls above the 30” threshold seem to be relatively infrequent at our site in the valley, but the numbers change notably by simply going up in elevation in the Northern Greens.  Based on my years of observation, a good way to obtain a rough estimate for snowfall occurrence in the higher elevations of the Northern Greens can be obtained by just doubling the snowfall sizes shown in my data set.  Therefore, if our site averages one 18”+ snowfall a season as shown in the plot, then the higher elevations of the Northern Greens should average approximately one 36”+ snowfall a season.

I miscounted the no-12"+ winters - it's 9 of 23.  6 winters have failed to have a 10"+ and 05-06 peaked at 5.9".

Frequencies - 1", 4" and 6" are calendar-day totals while 10" and greater are storm totals:
            Avg.     Most(yr)   Least(yr)
1"+      21.7    32 (07-08)   13 (15-16)
4"+       7.4     14 (07-08)    3 (15-16)
6"+       4.0      9 (00-01,     0 (05-06)
                           (07-08)
10"+      1.7       5 (13-14)     0 (6x)
12"+      1.1       3 (00-01,     0 (9x)
                             16-17, 
                             17-18)
15"         0.7     3 (00-01,     0 (15x)
                             16-17)
20"        0.3      2 (16-17)     0 (18x)
You really do well on the bigger storms.  At 1" you have about 40% more (nearest 10%), at 4" it's 60%, 6" is up to 80% and the 10" and greater it's more than twice my frequency.  No surprise for a spot that averages nearly 70% more per snow season.  

[J.Spin]

On 7/3/2021 at 9:37 PM, PhineasC said:

The firehose that is seemingly always over SNE is just crazy. I watched it from a distance for years but seeing it now actively screwing me in events is something else entirely. And yet a couple of them always whine about a drought...

@dendrite warned me about this. I always assumed NNE life was about socked-in clouds and drizzle for days, with things being generally wet. That has not been my experience at all. It goes long stretches with little cloud cover and precipitation and then dumps in 2-3 days all at once, rinse and repeat.

Today was a nice soak. It was needed up there. I haven't been around much this summer but I always worry about the well for the fall when we start coming back up more.

 

On 7/3/2021 at 10:28 PM, powderfreak said:

They stick out over the ocean.  It's a QPF heavy spot when the pattern is there.  Especially any upper level divergence along with S/SE/E flow off the Atlantic.  If you go from Maine coast to NJ coast, you can see the zone that sticks out into the water.  That's climo.

The NNE ski town saying is "You come for the winters, but stay for the summers."  The summers are great with long stretches of dry, chamber of commerce puffy white clouds.  Summer is what really gets people stoked up here to be honest, tourism is even higher than winter.

You definitely don't feel screwed by any means if it's not flash flooding , you want to be outside hiking, biking, swimming, wandering around in nature.  Not stuck inside while it rains.  No one complains up north when it's dry. It's just that recreation-all-the-time mentality; from 5am until 9pm you can be outside having fun in the summer... hiking the ice gulch over there, the Presidentials, playing in the field, exploring the forest.  What a place to be outside for the kids.

I think there may be recency, availability, and repetition bias in some of these perspectives though.  When it comes to this forum, whatever happens in the populated areas of SNE is heavily announced, discussed, echoed, rehashed, and dissected to the nth degree.  That’s 95%+ of the discussion, so it largely sets the appearance of what people in the subforum think is happening. 

As the actual data show, there’s little doubt that large areas of SNE get more annual precipitation than the typical valleys in NNE on average, but when it comes to the mountains in NNE (such as Phin’s NH place), there’s just more overall liquid up north.  On the map, there’s really nowhere in SNE that has annual precipitation beyond that light green 49-55” range; the next tiers of darker green are all up in the mountains of CNE and NNE.  Phin wasn’t around when his NH site saw over 70” of precipitation a few years back, but you can bet that there weren’t 10 pages of discussion about it in the forum.

This has been a drier than average year up here in NNE, so it’s definitely not the norm.  The numbers don’t lie:  Mt. Mansfield averages ~80” of liquid a year, and Mt. Washington averages ~100” of liquid a year.  Sure, those numbers fall off somewhat as you head down in elevation, but the larger, orographically influenced annual precipitation totals still extend a good distance out from the summits as the map shows.  The higher annual precipitation numbers up here in the mountains must come from somewhere, and it has to be from some combination of more rain events, and/or larger rain events.

As for the “socked-in clouds and drizzle for days”, it’s tough to say exactly where Phin’s NH place falls.  It’s becoming clear that the climate there is somewhat different than what PF and I experience here along the spine of the Northern Greens (it actually seems that Alex’s area might be more similar to what we experience), but this past year being drier than normal is not going to be a solid representative sample.  I can tell you that typically at our site, I’m looking for windows in the precipitation regime to be able to mow the lawn, but I haven’t had to worry about it as much from last summer into this early summer thus far.  Even in this relatively “dry” winter we just went through, we still had new snow recorded on 29 out of 31 days in January, and 23 out of 28 days in February.  There are a few days per winter where we might get diamond dust from clear skies, but the vast majority of that snow comes from clouds.  That’s many cloudy days.

I’d say our route to higher annual precipitation totals along the spine of the Northern Greens tips toward more episodes of precipitation vs. larger episodes, but the distribution could be a bit different at Phin’s NH site.  Whatever the case, something is pushing the annual precipitation there into that 55”+ range, and the data say that’s what happens when it all shakes out, even if it doesn’t feel like it.

[PhineasC]

I would agree that perception factors in. We will need to see how things play out as the years go by. Last summer was sunny and relatively hot up in Randolph. This warm season has been sunny but seemingly more seasonal in terms of temps so far. Both were rather dry. It looks like for whatever reason I brought an extended dry spell with me. 

It’s been odd because many people have told me they couldn’t stand the constant dreary overcast up here but I haven’t seen it. Many gorgeous bluebird days over the past 12+ months, summer and winter. Reminds me of high elevation in desert areas out west sometimes. Dry and clear. 

[alex]

17 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I would agree that perception factors in. We will need to see how things play out as the years go by. Last summer was sunny and relatively hot up in Randolph. This warm season has been sunny but seemingly more seasonal in terms of temps so far. Both were rather dry. It looks like for whatever reason I brought an extended dry spell with me. 

It’s been odd because many people have told me they couldn’t stand the constant dreary overcast up here but I haven’t seen it. Many gorgeous bluebird days over the past 12+ months, summer and winter. Reminds me of high elevation in desert areas out west sometimes. Dry and clear. 

Funny. My perception is quite the opposite. There seems to be a lot of days when it’s gratuitously overcast compared to other areas - even aside from the persistent winter upslope days. So many times leaving here socked in clouds just to arrive south of the notch in bright sunshine! I’ve also noticed that some plants that are typically shade plants (hostas for example) thrive in full sun here (not sure if that’s related to cloudiness or just general weather). Still love it… but we do get lots of cloudy days in my experience. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Funny. My perception is quite the opposite. There seems to be a lot of days when it’s gratuitously overcast compared to other areas - even aside from the persistent winter upslope days. So many times leaving here socked in clouds just to arrive south of the notch in bright sunshine! I’ve also noticed that some plants that are typically shade plants (hostas for example) thrive in full sun here (not sure if that’s related to cloudiness or just general weather). Still love it… but we do get lots of cloudy days in my experience. 

I think I end up with more clear non-upslope days being slightly north of the Presidentials. I frequently noticed it would be partly cloudy at my place and overcast at Bretton Woods. Even on the upslope days, it's more of a situation of fast-moving squall clouds here with breaks of sun versus the low deck that seems to sit down there.