NNE Warm Season Thread 2021

[J.Spin]

On 6/19/2021 at 9:33 AM, J.Spin said:

This first frozen precipitation observation doesn’t need to be specifically snow (although it often is), so it can be graupel or sleet, etc., as long as it’s frozen.  It also doesn’t need to accumulate, just be observed as falling frozen precipitation.  I record first accumulating snow as its own category, so I’ll do a separate plot for that.

 

In the hierarchy of early snow occurrence, the next parameter I record for our site is the first accumulating snowfall.  I’ve quoted the previous post with the data plot on first frozen precipitation for comparative purposes, since the two occurrences are often from the same event, but sometimes they differ.

As noted earlier, this past season’s first accumulating snow was October 26^th, and that was also the first frozen precipitation for the season.  In terms of first accumulating snow, this season was very typical, with the mean occurrence date being October 27^th.

One thing that jumped out at me immediately once I saw the plot was how late the first accumulating snow was for the 2007-2008 season.  We’d already had at least a trace of frozen precipitation that October, but it’s interesting that such a strong season with over 200” of total snowfall had a relatively slow start for snow accumulation.

[J.Spin]

After first accumulating snow, the next snowfall threshold I monitor for our site is first 1” snowfall.  On average, this occurs at our site by November 8^th, so this past season was almost a week ahead of that.

While 2020-2021 was a bit ahead of the curve in the 1” snowfall category, this past season had some notable early November snows, so it really made its mark in some of the higher early snow categories.  I’ll present those data as I continue with the analysis.

[tamarack]

Earliest flakes, accum., 1"+ 
98    11/3       11/17     12/8
99    10/4       11/10     11/13
00    10/9       10/29     10/29   (6.3" 29-30, high on 29: 31°)
01    10/31     11/1       11/29
02    11/1       11/1       11/4
03    10/22     10/23     12/6   (24" 6-7  BOOM!)
04    11/21     11/21     12/7
05    10/23     10/25     10/25
06    10/23     12/7       12/8
07    11/8       11/20     12/3
08    10/29     11/25     11/25
09    10/13     11/5       11/6
10    10/22     10/31     11/26
11    10/29     10/29     10/30  (4.5" 29-30, Octobomb was forecast 12-16 here)
12    11/5       11/8        11/8
13    11/10     11/10     12/2
14    11/1       11/2        11/14
15    10/18     11/23     12/29
16    10/25     11/21     11/25
17    11/10     11/16     12/9
18    10/13     10/27     10/27
19    10/25     11/8       11/11
20    10/26     11/3       11/25

Avg   10/27    11/9       11/22
Med. 10/26    11/8       11/25
OCT    15           6              3    
NOV     8          16            12
DEC      0           1              8
Never had 1"+ w/o an earlier T/0.1"+.  Closest was 2011.

[J.Spin]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Earliest flakes, accum., 1"+ 
11    10/29     10/29     11/30  (4.5" 29-30, Octobomb was forecast 12-16 here)

Never had 1"+ w/o an earlier T/0.1"+.  Closest was 2011.

Seeing your comment, I checked my data, and it appears that there has been one occurrence of hitting all three of those thresholds at once at our site – I see that in October 2006 I recorded first trace, first measurable, and first 1”+ all on October 20^th.

The reality here of course is that the “trace” occurrences can easily be missed.  If I don’t observe that frozen precipitation fell, I can’t record it, and I’m sure there are instances where I’ve missed first frozen trace because I just didn’t happen to see it.  As far as I know though, there wasn’t an earlier trace of frozen at our site that season.

For the second part of your comment, I looked at October 2011, and indeed that is close to simultaneous occurrence as you noted.  I see first trace and first measurable at our site are on October 29^th that year, and then first 1”+ was the next day on October 30^th.

I was thinking that your dates would thus be the same as mine that year, but I’m wondering if there’s a typo in the data table you presented?  Your 2011 data show first 1”+ on November 30^th, which wouldn’t fit with the idea of the dates for 1^st trace, 1^st measurable, and 1^st 1”+ being close.  Also, if the note about the big October snowstorm bringing 4.5” is correct, that would suggest that the 1”+ threshold was achieved before the end of October?  I guess getting a larger storm might not meet a smaller snowfall threshold if specific time intervals are imposed on the accumulations, but it’s hard to imagine the 4.5” from that storm being spread out enough to not hit at least 1” in a reasonable amount of time.

[tamarack]

19 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Seeing your comment, I checked my data, and it appears that there has been one occurrence of hitting all three of those thresholds at once at our site – I see that in October 2006 I recorded first trace, first measurable, and first 1”+ all on October 20^th.

The reality here of course is that the “trace” occurrences can easily be missed.  If I don’t observe that frozen precipitation fell, I can’t record it, and I’m sure there are instances where I’ve missed first frozen trace because I just didn’t happen to see it.  As far as I know though, there wasn’t an earlier trace of frozen at our site that season.

For the second part of your comment, I looked at October 2011, and indeed that is close to simultaneous occurrence as you noted.  I see first trace and first measurable at our site are on October 29^th that year, and then first 1”+ was the next day on October 30^th.

I was thinking that your dates would thus be the same as mine that year, but I’m wondering if there’s a typo in the data table you presented?  Your 2011 data show first 1”+ on November 30^th, which wouldn’t fit with the idea of the dates for 1^st trace, 1^st measurable, and 1^st 1”+ being close.  Also, if the note about the big October snowstorm bringing 4.5” is correct, that would suggest that the 1”+ threshold was achieved before the end of October?  I guess getting a larger storm might not meet a smaller snowfall threshold if specific time intervals are imposed on the accumulations, but it’s hard to imagine the 4.5” from that storm being spread out enough to not hit at least 1” in a reasonable amount of time.

Sure was, now fixed.  Thanks.
Currently in the endgame of a totally unexpected little shower, might get a tenth or so.  More baby steps.

[mreaves]

Wow. Just checked the temp back at home and it’s already 81.6°. It’s going to be a scorcha!  A comfortable 61.2° here in Sioux Falls, SD as we head towards the Black Hills. 

[backedgeapproaching]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wow. Just checked the temp back at home and it’s already 81.6°. It’s going to be a scorcha!  A comfortable 61.2° here in Sioux Falls, SD as we head towards the Black Hills. 

Its really soupy....my dew is 70-71F.  Enjoy out there.

[tamarack]

Little shower ended with a 5-minute downpour, total 0.27".  
That patch of rain, now mostly dissolved, acted like Rt 2 was its monorail.  Very uncommon.

[J.Spin]

35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV 88/69 and gusting almost 40mph out of the south.  Feels like the Caribbean when it’s around 90F and the flags are straight out in a hairdryer wind.

Actually, I was just out in BTV catching a bus, and it did have that feel.  The strong wind was definitely notable.  It’s neat when it’s warm and windy like that, since that’s not our classic summer climate.  It certainly beats hot and humid with dead calm, although thankfully that’s not quite our classic summer climate up here either.

[tamarack]

Had a TOR warning north of Jackman.  Still some 55-60 dbz pixels when I looked 10 minutes ago but earlier there were shades of 70.

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Actually, I was just out in BTV catching a bus, and it did have that feel.  The strong wind was definitely notable.  It’s neat when it’s warm and windy like that, since that’s not our classic summer climate.  It certainly beats hot and humid with dead calm, although thankfully that’s not quite our classic summer climate up here either.

Yeah it was nice today as a novelty.  Heat with a breeze always makes it better.

Looking forward to tomorrow though, AC still cranking this evening despite the lower temps…it’s so muggy out.  Thick air.

&& Cooler and drier air will help decrease the areal coverage of showers with a few lingering showers later on Tuesday over southern Vermont. Noticeable cooler temperatures will be on tap for Tuesday with highs in the 60s to around 70. Dry weather and no precipitation is expected Tuesday night with lows in the 40s, but some 30s in the mountains. &&

[J.Spin]

For the data on first 2” snowfall by season, what really jumped out when I made the plot was the stretch that has occurred over the past three seasons.  After recording weather data, I don’t really pour through it much until I’m doing an analysis or putting together plots like these, so I hadn’t noticed that the past three seasons have delivered the earliest 2” snowfall occurrences in my entire data set.  The mean date for first 2” snowfall here is November 23^rd, so these past three seasons have been well ahead of that, and in fact, the past five seasons have all come in ahead of average.

For a somewhat unremarkable season overall, this is a category where the 2020-2021 season actually gets to make its mark in the records by coming in well ahead of the pack.  This past November had a 7.1” storm right at the beginning of the month, so the season is going to make its presence known in a couple more upcoming plots as well.

[tamarack]

PF's "warm wind" post:
BTV 88/69 and gusting almost 40mph out of the south.  Feels like the Caribbean when it’s around 90F and the flags are straight out in a hairdryer wind.

From my report of the forestry peer-review trip of Sept. 31-Oct. 1, 2005
We were heartened by the rain having nearly stopped while we dined.  It was replaced by a strangely warm (for this latitude) strong wind, tropical air transported north by the remains of the hurricane.

The first day was a downpour from the remnants of Katrina.  Then we dined at the hilltop restaurant in St. Agatha.  After dinner, about 9 PM, was when the unnaturally warm wind was noted - temp was probably near 70, especially mild after a day of 50s RA+.  Normal temp there on 9/31 is about 56/36.

 

[powderfreak]

52F at 3pm at SLK… without rain, just straight CAA.  That’s impressive.

MVL is 31 degrees colder today at 3:30pm than yesterday at that time (90 to 59F).  BTV is 30 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon too (91F to 61F).

I guess I didn’t quite realize an autumn air mass was following that Caribbean air from yesterday.

[backedgeapproaching]

45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

52F at 3pm at SLK… without rain, just straight CAA.  That’s impressive.

MVL is 31 degrees colder today at 3:30pm than yesterday at that time (90 to 59F).  BTV is 30 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon too (91F to 61F).

I guess I didn’t quite realize an autumn air mass was following that Caribbean air from yesterday.

Today felt great after yesterday.  Next few days should be nice, but man that Euro is bad.  Tip opined a bit on it, but that is a pig Bermuda HP, dews are going to be awful if it's correct.

I like this panel..lol.  No escape.

[dendrite]

Stein keeping the dews down here.

[backedgeapproaching]

And there is the CMC..

[tamarack]

A full order of magnitude too high for here?

[J.Spin]

I do track first 3” snowfall by season, so that’s the next plot in the series.  There’s not a huge disparity from the first 2” snowfall mean, but it does shift a couple of days later to November 25^th.  Again, we see the past three seasons with strong showings, and the 2020-2021 season making its mark at the front of the pack.  The 2015-2016 shows itself as a massive outlier, not hiding anything in its effort to incite mreaves’ PTSD.

[powderfreak]

What a stretch of Top 10 days this week.  One more tomorrow before the dews and heat creep in over the weekend.  By early next week it's time to pull up a chair in the river and just sit there for a few days.

[J.Spin]

The data for first 4” snowfall by season are very similar to the first 3” snowfall data, with 2020-2021 showing the effect of those early storms we had this past November.  2015-2016 set the other extreme, and waiting until essentially the start of the new year to get a simple 4” snowfall seems quite anomalous.  While it’s not quite as crazy as the fact that we also had to wait that long for even a 3” snowfall, but both occurrences are quite remarkable in the context of the snowfall climatology at our site.

[tamarack]

More snow talk as we head into a run of triple H.  

Adding 4"+ and 10"+.    10"+ is storm total while all the others are calendar day (except largest).
Earliest flakes, accum.,   1"+          4"+        10"+        Largest
98    11/3       11/17       12/8       12/30      3/6-7      14.5"  3/6-7
99    10/4       11/10       11/13      1/16        none        8.2"  1/25-26
00    10/9       10/29       10/29     10/29     12/31      19.0"  3/30-31  (48" depth on 3/31.  Even in Fort Kent never had that much on 3/31 or later.)
01    10/31     11/1         11/29     12/15      none         9.0"  3/20-21
02    11/1       11/1         11/4        11/17      1/4          13.8"  1/4-5
03    10/22     10/23       12/6        12/6       12/6-7     24.0"  12/6-7
04    11/21     11/21       12/7        2/10      2/10-11    21.0"  2/10-11
05    10/23     10/25       10/25     12/16      none         5.9"   1/29-30  (Most recent previous winter I've seen w/o a 6"+ event was 1967-68 in NNJ.)
06    10/23     12/7         12/8        12/8      2/14-15     18.5"  4/4-5
07    11/8       11/20       12/3        12/3      12/3-4       12.5"  1/1-2
08    10/29     11/25       11/25     12/17   12/21-22    24.5" 2/22-23
09    10/13     11/5         11/6        12/9       2/25-28    10.7" 2/25-28  (2.67" LE, 4:1 mashed potatoes) 
10    10/22     10/31       11/26      12/27     4/1-2        15.1"  4/1-2
11    10/29     10/29       10/30      10/30     none          9.7"  11/23
12    11/5       11/8          11/8        12/17     2/8-9       12.5"  3/19-20
13    11/10     11/10       12/2        12/15     12/15      13.5"  3/12-13
14    11/1       11/2         11/14       11/26   11/26-27   20.0"  1/27-28
15    10/18     11/23      12/29       12/29      none          8.5"  1/12-13
16    10/25     11/21      11/25       12/12   12/29-30    21.0"  12/29-30 and 2/12-13
17    11/10     11/16      12/9         12/25      1/4           13.0"  1/4
18    10/13     10/27      10/27      11/13     1/19-20     19.9"  3/7-9
19    10/25     11/8        11/11      12/31     3/23-24     10.3"  3/23-24
20    10/26     11/3        11/25       12/5        none          9.5"   2/2
Earliest flakes; accum;  1"+;      4"+        10"+      Winter's largest
Avg   10/27    11/9       11/22     12/10        1/21          14.5"
Med. 10/26    11/8       11/25     12/15       1/4             13.5"
OCT    15           6              3             2           6 w/none         0
NOV     8          16            12            3                1                   1
DEC      0           1              8            16               6                  1.5
JAN                                                   1                3                   7
FEB                                                    1                4                  4.5
MAR                                                                    2                   7
APR                                                                                          2

Never had 1"+ w/o an earlier T/0.1"+.  Closest was 2011.  Only "triplets" were 10/29/00 (accum, 1", 4") and 2/10[11]/05 (4", 10", largest)

 

[powderfreak]

Nice to see some rain falling out there.

[J.Spin]

I see that Tamarack has up his 10” snowfall data, but I still have 6” and 8” snowfall data before I get there, so I’ll keep working through the series.  Even up at the 6” level, we still see last season holding onto that earliest spot, and indeed the last three Novembers continuing with that strong showing.  These seasons are all well ahead of the mean and median date of November 27^th for first 6” snowfall.  The 2015-2016 season is still out there at the back of the pack, but it’s not sticking out quite as anomalously now as we head into these larger snowfalls.

[Patriot21]

The highest I saw today was 85, right now down to 71 at 8:45. Muggy as hell though.

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

The highest I saw today was 85, right now down to 71 at 8:45. Muggy as hell though.

Thats awesome.  Still 79F here.  Got to 89F.

[tamarack]

86/64 yesterday and didn't get much (if any) below 70 this morning.  70+ dews all over New England.

[PhineasC]

Overnight low was 73 with a DP of 67. Just nasty without AC. Glad I am not there.

[backedgeapproaching]

Saw a couple of sicko's jogging fully masked an hour ago in 87/75 mank.  I mean, cmon-just dumb and kind of dangerous.

Its awful sitting in the shade today unmasked.

 

[wxeyeNH]

75/69   Got lucky with a thunderstorm which is just ending   .23"