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NNE Warm Season Thread 2021


wxeyeNH
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18z EURO still keeps showing a decent, moderate QPF event in a marginal cold column.  I still like 4-8" at 1,500ft+ but down low it's hard to say... just for the record, I still never take these snow maps verbatim of course.  I use them and alter the snow ratios to what I think is most likely.. like 6-8:1 at least on the final tally under 1,500ft.  Up at the picnic tables it might be 12:1 in a cold atmosphere (that average ratio might include some 15:1 type upslope afterwards).  I could see my backyard seeing 1-2" of slop on 0.5-0.75" water.  But then solid advisory snowfall amounts up above 1,000-1,500ft.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-9150400.thumb.png.a0c8f0d7e5f65c7a9fbab6ef976ab693.png

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Synoptically, it's not a bad sign to be just N/NW/W of the deepening mid-level lows.  This map of the H5 looked to swing underneath us as it deepens.  It's tilted a bit, but the H5, H7, and H85 lows swing just south/east of the Adirondacks, N.VT and N.NH.  The seasonal trend of east ticks on the approach may help the higher terrain around the MVL-MPV-BML-HIE area.  It does look like it deepens strongly as it proceeds east, with some big totals possible downstream in the Maritimes and up in what you Mainers call The County.

500mb_18zEURO.thumb.png.5722fd6141c255188f0a235d4891d947.png

 

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Synoptically, it's not a bad sign to be just N/NW/W of the deepening mid-level lows.  This map of the H5 looked to swing underneath us as it deepens.  It's tilted a bit, but the H5, H7, and H85 lows swing just south/east of the Adirondacks, N.VT and N.NH.  The seasonal trend of east ticks on the approach may help the higher terrain around the MVL-MPV-BML-HIE area.  It does look like it deepens strongly as it proceeds east, with some big totals possible downstream in the Maritimes and up in what you Mainers call The County.

500mb_18zEURO.thumb.png.5722fd6141c255188f0a235d4891d947.png

 

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Pasted white outside at home. Evergreens drooping quite a bit... very wet snow, maybe 1.5” or so?

0.40” water though... can see why the summit got a fast 5”.

6EC20FBA-07EA-4032-BA8F-2FE7AAA7AF7F.jpeg.31ebabba6aa849bd37aca4c0162836a7.jpeg

What’s the earliest melt out of all time at the snow stake on Mt Mansfield? Was thinking we were going to see it this year but maybe the recent snow has saved it?

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Synoptically, it's not a bad sign to be just N/NW/W of the deepening mid-level lows.  This map of the H5 looked to swing underneath us as it deepens.  It's tilted a bit, but the H5, H7, and H85 lows swing just south/east of the Adirondacks, N.VT and N.NH.  The seasonal trend of east ticks on the approach may help the higher terrain around the MVL-MPV-BML-HIE area.  It does look like it deepens strongly as it proceeds east, with some big totals possible downstream in the Maritimes and up in what you Mainers call The County.

Current forecast for Clayton Lake is 5-10" thru tomorrow night.  Only 3-6" at Pittston Farm where we'll be going tomorrow afternoon thru Saturday noon.  It's at about 1100' but we'll be at 1300-1500 on the way in.

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Fun SPS... 

Including the cities of Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, and Burlington

1134 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...Locally Heavy Snow will move through Northern New York and the Northern Champlain Valley through 5 pm...

Moderate to heavy snowfall at times move across the Adirondacks into the Northern Champlain Valley through 5 pm. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour is possible that could quickly deposit several inches of snowfall. Despite current wet roads in some locations, increased snowfall intensity and continued falling temperatures will allow for snow covered roads and slick travel. If traveling this afternoon and evening please be aware of changing conditions and other vehicles. Conditions will gradually improve this evening.

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A few inches at 1,500ft... 1.5" down in the village.  The picnic table snow cam got like 5" in 3 hours.

Good burst of heavy snow this morning.  Now we wait for this afternoon/evening's round.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

BTV is Heavy Snow at the last hourly obs... it's slowly trying to come east.

KBTV 211654Z 34014KT 1/4SM R15/2600VP6000FT +SN FG OVC007 01/M01 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP061 P0003 T00061011

I’m here at work in BTV, and indeed there’s been some 1”/hr snowfall at times with this second round of the system.  It had backed off a little from that heaviest period, but it’s probably back up close to 1”/hr again with a bit more wind now.  Accumulation here on the UVM campus looks like a couple of inches.

I guess this system could be broken up into three parts if there ends up being an upslope portion on the backside as well.

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27 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I’m here at work in BTV, and indeed there’s been some 1”/hr snowfall at times with this second round of the system.  It had backed off a little from that heaviest period, but it’s probably back up close to 1”/hr again with a bit more wind now.  Accumulation here on the UVM campus looks like a couple of inches.

I guess this system could be broken up into three parts if there ends up being an upslope portion on the backside as well.

BTV looks to be doing the best this round so far.

Awesome to see sub-freezing temps there with +SN.

KBTV 211902Z 34009KT 1/4SM R15/2600V3500FT +SN FZFG VV006 M01/M02 A2972 RMK AO2 P0000 T10061017

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

From a friend who works at Saddleback... this is Rangley, ME I believe.

Rangley.thumb.jpg.02ee9edef7d21bdfb2ef70930b8aa9cb.jpg

Nice, looks like 3"+.  In town is just over 1500' evel while Saddleback base is near 2000'.  I'd guess this place is closer to the latter (in elev.)

RA+ last 10 minutes with one distant but long rumble of thunder that put our dog under the computer desk where I'm sitting.  She's probably still a bit shell-shocked at the very close strike late last month.  That one came after a couple distant rumbles.

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