powderfreak Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 minute ago, J.Spin said: I just stopped in at the BTV NWS site and saw that the Winter Storm Watches have been extended into NVT, and projected accumulations have been bumped, presumably based on what they’ve seen from the midday guidance. Elevations along the spine of the Northern Greens have been bumped up from the 6-8” tier into the 8-12 tier. Updated maps are below: I like that forecast. Western side of the Spine heavy favorites for sure but also northern Champlain Valley. That map is very close to the 12z Euro Snow Map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Great AFD, and love the last part about the Watch decision. Very reasonable to think it may be Advisory snow but potential exists for more. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EDT Tuesday...Active weather returns mid-week as an upper trough digging into the northern Plains this afternoon will track into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday, and then into the Northeast Thursday and Thursday night. Strong south/southwesterly flow ahead of the attending cold front will usher in PWATs up to 1" with rain becoming widespread across northern New York by early afternoon and spreading eastward into Vermont by early evening. Hereafter as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted, secondary cyclogenesis occurs near the Delmarva Peninsula stalling the fronts eastward progression as the newly formed surface low tracks into southern New England by 12z Thursday. Rain will change to snow across northern New York from 06- 12Z with the frontal boundary likely draped through the Champlain Valley come sunrise Thursday. As the surface low slowly trudges northeast to the Maine coast by the end of the day, rain continues to transition to snow across VT during the morning hours and continues into Thursday afternoon before tapering to higher elevation snow showers Thursday night. Based on current ensemble and deterministic model output, median snowfall amounts across northern New York continue to be in the 6- 10" range, but due to a faster changeover to snow across northern Vermont the potential now exists for 4-7" across the northern Champlain Valley and portions of the central/northeast Vermont. With this in mind, have expanded the previously issues Winter Storm Watch to include these areas, knowing full well that some areas will likely transition to an advisory, but acknowledging that the potential exists for higher amounts. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Flood watch for most of CAR's forecast area. GYX is watching. Took a closer look at the near-road trees. 2 large fir (14" dia/70-75' tall) down or on the way - hung on another tree - plus a smaller fir also hung. The pine fork that broke was 55' long and been about 60' up the tree, total tree height 115'. Fairly good 1st-year conelet crop so maybe the other fork (assuming a SE wind doesn't take it down) and the other similar-size pines may have a nice cone crop this year. When things get less squishy I'll look at some big-fir areas away from the road to see what else is horizontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Yeah, 18z Nam showing a nice burst of heavy snow Thurs morning/afternoon up here. Thurs/Fri into this weekend might be the best two days for the remainder of the season in the Northern Greens. Still looks like a pretty sharp cut-off for the difference making snow once south of the MRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Yeah, 18z Nam showing a nice burst of heavy snow Thurs morning/afternoon up here. Thurs/Fri into this weekend might be the best two days for the remainder of the season in the Northern Greens. Still looks like a pretty sharp cut-off for the difference making snow once south of the MRV. Yeah nice tick east there on the 18z NAM. Maybe all the east ticks we see with lows that often screw us to the delight of NH/ME will work out this time because it’s starting so far west, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 A couple more tics east could get me some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 18z GFS moved east too. Or is colder at least. Pretty close for NNH. Need a couple more shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18z GFS moved east too. Or is colder at least. Pretty close for NNH. Need a couple more shifts. Yeah looks like you’d end as snow there. I’m all for some east ticks, because given the set-up if you are getting some snow, we’ve probably moved firmer into the goods over here, ha. The 18z HRRR was pretty solid in northern Coos County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah looks like you’d end as snow there. I’m all for some east ticks, because given the set-up if you are getting some snow, we’ve probably moved firmer into the goods over here, ha. The 18z HRRR was pretty solid in northern Coos County. Could end up as a replay of the January come back event. Wet snow for us and rain further east. It was the event that set the season up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, mreaves said: Could end up as a replay of the January come back event. Wet snow for us and rain further east. It was the event that set the season up for us. The mid January event? Let’s hope it’s a replay of that one. 18” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 RGEM also shifted the low east. Let’s hope 00z keeps it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 To be honest I think this is more elevations dependent than models show and also less snow due to lower ratios. I could see 70% of those 10:1 maps. More like the ICON’s look of a 3-6” event for most with some spot 6-7” at the peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: To be honest I think this is more elevations dependent than models show and also less snow due to lower ratios. I could see 70% of those 10:1 maps. More like the ICON’s look of a 3-6” event for most with some spot 6-7” at the peaks. maybe a little upslope enhancement at the end with the low departing over central Maine for you and me though. A few inches or maybe just snow globey. Those 850s get cold after 0Z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 my p&c up to 4-10. let it ride. If I can score another powder day or 2, I'll be more than satisfied with this winter skiing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 18z Euro came east too. 00z should be interesting. Still 40+ hours for tics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 It was a perfect afternoon for a hike up through Smugglers Notch on the closed RT 108. Snowpack is real low for this time of year (of course). The sound of icefall thundering down off the towering Notch cliffs further up the road added some spooky noise to an otherwise sunny warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To be honest I think this is more elevations dependent than models show and also less snow due to lower ratios. I could see 70% of those 10:1 maps. More like the ICON’s look of a 3-6” event for most with some spot 6-7” at the peaks. 42 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: maybe a little upslope enhancement at the end with the low departing over central Maine for you and me though. A few inches or maybe just snow globey. Those 850s get cold after 0Z Friday. Whether it falls as 6”, 7”, or 10”, the most important aspect is how much of the L.E. falls as frozen as we discussed the other day. Whatever falls is going to be going to be atop a very old and consolidated spring snowpack subsurface, so we’re going to want some substantial density on the front end of the storm cycle anyway. Topping it off with some drier upslope on the back side of the story cycle as bwt mentions would be a nice way to enhance the overall turns with respect to the gradient of snow density if that’s the way it plays out. I’m still seeing numbers topping out around ~1.5” L.E. on most of the models, so a substantial percentage of that as frozen has the potential to set up some nice turns in the elevations of the Northern Greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Skied at BW today. Such a lovely day to be out on the slopes. One of the runs from top to bottom, I didn't see a single soul. I hope to get another day out there tomorro! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah looks like you’d end as snow there. I’m all for some east ticks, because given the set-up if you are getting some snow, we’ve probably moved firmer into the goods over here, ha. The 18z HRRR was pretty solid in northern Coos County. Looks like I picked the perfect weekend to end my stay up here in VT. Hope this happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 59 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18z Euro came east too. 00z should be interesting. Still 40+ hours for tics. I think the trend is legit as many have speculated earlier on in the big thread... progressive and weaker/not as wrapped up. You end up with a more 3-7" type event that's displaced eastward. As always, I set my bar at 3 inches ha. That number is when the vibe "feels snowy"... like yesterday morning's upslope burst at the ski area. At 3 inches it feels wintry. Plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think the trend is legit as many have speculated earlier on in the big thread... progressive and weaker/not as wrapped up. You end up with a more 3-7" type event that's displaced eastward. As always, I set my bar at 3 inches ha. That number is when the vibe "feels snowy"... like yesterday morning's upslope burst at the ski area. At 3 inches it feels wintry. Plowable. That 8 spot at jay may be high, but doable with enhancement. Wind should be kickin too up here so it might be the perfect situation where the gaps get filled in with the low density stuff at the start and then then the wind hides some powder in the woods for the weekend...probably overly optimistic, but maybe this is one of those where 1500’ is the difference maker...just hoping the winds don’t go too crazy as we all know how temperamental the flyer is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Wow, 00z HRRR nice jump east. Good snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Wow, 00z HRRR nice jump east. Good snow here. Yup, fits my thoughts well with an elevation dependent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Wow, 00z HRRR nice jump east. Good snow here. One last good one before us transplants call it a snow season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: Skied at BW today. Such a lovely day to be out on the slopes. One of the runs from top to bottom, I didn't see a single soul. I hope to get another day out there tomorro! Nice Di, so much fun to have runs all by yourself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice Di, so much fun to have runs all by yourself I was there with 4 kids so she didn’t have it all to herself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Meanwhile NAM looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Meanwhile NAM looks worse. Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: It was a perfect afternoon for a hike up through Smugglers Notch on the closed RT 108. Snowpack is real low for this time of year (of course). The sound of icefall thundering down off the towering Notch cliffs further up the road added some spooky noise to an otherwise sunny warm day. There was a meme floating around social media today about the Ever Given getting stuck going through the Notch. Pretty localized joke but amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, mreaves said: There was a meme floating around social media today about the Ever Given getting stuck going through the Notch. Pretty localized joke but amusing. There have been several memes, it’s hilarious . The number of tractor trailers who get stuck and shut the road down for hours is like nowhere else in New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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