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Central PA - Spring 2021


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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

We are definitely to far north but Hrrr spitting out a decent tornado parameter for areas near DC :twister:. Probably Hrrr overdoing it butt...

 

Warm sector pain.  I googled Tornado and Washington DC and see it is a rare occurrence but did see this interesting piece of info.

The most significant tornado to ever hit Washington, D.C., came on August 25, 1814, as British troops were burning the city during the War of 1812.

While the city was burning, a massive storm – which may have included both a hurricane and a tornado – hit the city. During the storm, a tornado traveled down Constitution Avenue and reportedly threw multiple canons through the air. At least 30 people were killed in the storm, which caused serious damage to structures in D.C. – including some the British had not burned. The storm did, however, have the effect of helping to douse the fires set by British troops.

 

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26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS doubles down on the wet pattern late next week and is that a tropical storm coming up from Cuba into the Gulf? 

Leaving for OBX next Saturday...let's see if I can top the 10" of rain that I received last year on vacation down there. 

If anyone can get more than 10" of rain from one week at the beach...it'll be me. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Leaving for OBX next Saturday...let's see if I can top the 10" of rain that I received last year on vacation down there. 

If anyone can get more than 10" of rain from one week at the beach...it'll be me. 

I remember that time for you.  It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there.  You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I remember that time for you.  It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there.  You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. 

Correct - though the overall pattern suggests that unsettled weather probably returns by the end of next week. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember that time for you.  It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there.  You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. 

Just curious, what model last Friday wasn’t showing 80s-90s for PA on D8-9? On second thought, you could cherry pick a day from just about any GFS run at any time of the year and find temps 20-30 degrees below normal.

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember that time for you.  It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there.  You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. 

Seriously? The stats I keep tells me the GFS is 75% accurate on Day 8-9. Let me recalibrate my stat machine first though. 

* Sorry it is now at 3%. :D

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Just curious, what model last Friday wasn’t showing 80s-90s for PA on D8-9? On second thought, you could cherry pick a day from just about any GFS run at any time of the year and find temps 20-30 degrees below normal.

Right or wrong the GFS (new or old) supplies us fodder for discussion.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Right or wrong the GFS (new or old) supplies us fodder for discussion.  

Indeed it does. But in all honesty, it does seem to do better than most with pattern changes. That’s why I’m worried about all these 90s in later portions of most runs.

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6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Indeed it does. But in all honesty, it does seem to do better than most with pattern changes. That’s why I’m worried about all these 90s in later portions of most runs.

It definitely is more believable with extreme possibilities than the too steady Euro.  The Euro must have some type of built in procedure to limit run to run changes as when it is wrong it just keeps going to the well with its wrongness.  The GFS flips the script every 6-12 hours if needed.  As far as  summer returning June 6/7th, I am afraid we would be asking too much for this extended late winter/spring weather to continue too far into June. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It definitely is more believable with extreme possibilities than the too steady Euro.  The Euro must have some type of built in procedure to limit run to run changes as when it is wrong it just keeps going to the well with its wrongness.  The GFS flips the script every 6-12 hours if needed.  As far as the summer returning June 6/7th, I am afraid we would be asking too much for this extended late winter/spring weather to continue too far into June. 

Indeed, it wouldn’t be summer without 90 degree temperatures being around on a regular basis. Except for 2004, where the temperature never even got to 88 at Pittsburgh, which is incredible every time it pops into my mind.

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16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Indeed, it wouldn’t be summer without 90 degree temperatures being around on a regular basis. Except for 2004, where the temperature never even got to 88 at Pittsburgh, which is incredible every time it pops into my mind.

Except for the damage to our farmers, a summer of 1816 would be interesting to live though.    Cape May had frost 5 days in a row in June.  Frost in South VA in August. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Except for the damage to our farmers, a summer of 1816 would be interesting to live through.    Cape May had frost 5 days in a row in June.  Frost in South VA in August. 

Sure would be, we just need a major volcanic eruption to completely disrupt our weather patterns.

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