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Central PA - Spring 2021


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33 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agree with you both about a cold Memorial Day weekend being no fun for anyone.  I will say Monday looks pretty dang pleasant and Sunday is still a bit up in the air, kind of the transition day.  Not great either way though.  No pool parties this year ugh.

The only silver lining here is if we happen to witness something historic, which still isn’t out of the question.

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35 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agree with you both about a cold Memorial Day weekend being no fun for anyone.  I will say Monday looks pretty dang pleasant and Sunday is still a bit up in the air, kind of the transition day.  Not great either way though.  No pool parties this year ugh.

And @sauss06 invited me over for a pool party this year. :( To drink all his beer too. Now I need to cancel. 

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6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Very true, initially I wasn't very bullish on any records falling but I've got to say we have a real shot, particularly eyeing up that min max record for Saturday.

It looks doable, and the 12z runs of virtually every model trend the low further south, which might help eliminate that pesky midnight high temperature issue. I’m not ruling it out for Pittsburgh either, the current low max is 54, which is the softest low max of May.

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18 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It looks doable, and the 12z runs of virtually every model trend the low further south, which might help eliminate that pesky midnight high temperature issue. I’m not ruling it out for Pittsburgh either, the current low max is 54, which is the softest low max of May.

Trends south is our friend! Flakes could be flying. LOLLLL. 

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12 minutes ago, canderson said:

They keep delaying the rain start Friday - it's now 4 p.m., was 11 a.m. yesterday morning) and cutting it off earlier Saturday (and overall lowering chances). Interesting. 

That is interesting. maybe soon they'll deny the lower temps and we will actually be sunny and 80

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4 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I saw a number of storm damage reports from up above Halifax and Berrysburg and whatnot so yes that area got hit pretty hard as well.  One report of a barn blown over.

I saw that barn. It was just off of 225.

 

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One thing I keep seeing is the retrograding/reformation/block of the law as it gets over us Saturday AM.  Could make for some very disparate precip totals as shown on the EC.  People being dry slotted and not getting the 1.5 to 2".   On the other hand its keeps a spinning area of moisture close to us all weekend so rain is possible into Monday.   EC is, as usual, hotter than anything else so it busts when things trend cold or looks like a winner when they go above forecasts.  But even it does not get MDT above 75 until a week from tomorrow.   Low 70's Monday. 

image.png.264e0540d2a00ae661ba119d6ad4b48a.png

 

 

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41 minutes ago, canderson said:

They keep delaying the rain start Friday - it's now 4 p.m., was 11 a.m. yesterday morning) and cutting it off earlier Saturday (and overall lowering chances). Interesting. 

I am going to throw out a forecast and say someone from CTP south and east is having rain by noon tomorrow.   Models have been suggesting rain gets into the MSV and USV a bit earlier than the LSV. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I keep seeing is the retrograding/reformation/block of the law as it gets over us Saturday AM.  Could make for some very disparate precip totals as shown on the EC.  People being dry slotted and not getting the 1.5 to 2".   On the other hand its keeps a spinning area of moisture close to us all weekend so rain is possible into Monday.   EC is, as usual, hotter than anything else so it busts when things trend cold or looks like a winner when they go above forecasts.  But even it does not get MDT above 75 until a week from tomorrow.   Low 70's Monday. 

image.png.264e0540d2a00ae661ba119d6ad4b48a.png

 

 

Bubbler dry slotted? 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

How much for R'Ville?  Not much.  LOL.  1/2" would be just dandy for me.  It seems no matter how much it rains the sun is going to put a beating on the grass if it is dry for a day or two.

.5" is my benchmark. Anything more than that would be great, less...I'll be disappointed. 

Last night I got that amount in 15 minutes. 

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

.5" is my benchmark. Anything more than that would be great, less...I'll be disappointed. 

Last night I got that amount in 15 minutes. 

Each model run I see has areas of very enhanced rain so someone is going to get more than 2" if that plays out.  But like you mentioned,  .5 is just fine for grass and plants.   The 2" is more helpful for the water sources.  Three 1/4" rainfalls over a week is much better for the grass than one 3" rainfall and baking sun the other 6 days.  

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On a related topic, I remember June's and July's in VA and PA where the grass was thick and healthy.   Only thing I can blame the current way grass seems dry up in June, regardless of rain amounts, is the sun. Whether we have less atmospheric blocking of the sun or its seemingly a bit "closer" to us.   In areas that are half shade the grass grows fine except for extreme droughts like here last summer.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I keep seeing is the retrograding/reformation/block of the law as it gets over us Saturday AM.  Could make for some very disparate precip totals as shown on the EC.  People being dry slotted and not getting the 1.5 to 2".   On the other hand its keeps a spinning area of moisture close to us all weekend so rain is possible into Monday.   EC is, as usual, hotter than anything else so it busts when things trend cold or looks like a winner when they go above forecasts.  But even it does not get MDT above 75 until a week from tomorrow.   Low 70's Monday. 

image.png.264e0540d2a00ae661ba119d6ad4b48a.png

 

 

10-1 Ratios? That is a FOOT. 

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