Central PA - Spring 2021

[sauss06]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

As Canderson said, I'm sure it happens in every city. I've never personally witnessed it in Pittsburgh. 

Though - when my son was 13 or 14, we were sitting directly across the aisle from a guy who was probably toasted by 7am that day. EVERY time the Steelers got a first down, this dude staggers across the aisle and gives my son about 3 high fives. My son thought that was pretty funny. We still talk about that guy.   

It does. I have been going to Pittsburgh since the 70s.  its the only bad experience. He was a poor drunk. 

 

anyone know off hand what the record low temps are for the upcoming days, any chances of breaking records?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, FHS said:

it wont get that god dam fkn cold. the nam is on fkn crack and stupid as ever. the models are as junky as junk ever could be and dont work worth two shits. the nam can take its numbers and shove them way  back up its ddr ram slot . Just my humble opinion. 

lols pal.

might wanna back r down 20% 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

22 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

It does. I have been going to Pittsburgh since the 70s.  its the only bad experience. He was a poor drunk. 

 

anyone know off hand what the record low temps are for the upcoming days, any chances of breaking records?

I had a post yesterday morning discussing records for the weekend but only focused on min maxes, as that's where I thought the best shot was, albeit still a reach.  Looks like the record lows for Harrisburg for Fri Sat Sun are 41 40 41.  I actually topped out at 80 yesterday, might have been the hot spot east of the mountains ha.

[canderson]

I'm skeptical on any widespread rain for this area today. It's going to be very hit or miss popup stuff. Friday looks like a decent rain, though. 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm skeptical on any widespread rain for this area today. It's going to be very hit or miss popup stuff. Friday looks like a decent rain, though. 

Any rain we do get today also might be very heavy and run off more than it soaks in. 

[paweather]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS has MDT in the 30's Sunday night. 

Frost Warnings! 

[sauss06]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm skeptical on any widespread rain for this area today. It's going to be very hit or miss popup stuff. Friday looks like a decent rain, though. 

 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Any rain we do get today also might be very heavy and run off more than it soaks in. 

agree with you both

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS has MDT in the 30's Sunday night. 

That looks like it would be the latest 30s on record for MDT, by almost a week.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, paweather said:

Frost Warnings! 

I was in Potter county on Memorial Day about 7-8 years ago and it was 30 degrees at the cabin that morning. 

Who knows?

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was in Potter county on Memorial Day about 7-8 years ago and it was 30 degrees at the cabin that morning. 

Who knows?

couple years ago, it was warmer on Christmas eve then it was on memorial day 

[paweather]

GFS is a Soaker run: * And as Bubbler pointed out maybe some White Flakes flying. :-) 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

couple years ago, it was warmer on Christmas eve then it was on memorial day 

My air conditioning system remembers that. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

couple years ago, it was warmer on Christmas eve then it was on memorial day 

Could happen this year.  Christmas eve was the warmest day in Dec I think. 

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Could happen this year.  Christmas eve was the warmest day in Dec I think. 

I am putting the Christmas tree up on Memorial Day this year. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I agree with those decrying the spottiness of todays storms, although someone should see at least some marginal severe activity out of it.  CTP's thoughts....

As a tongue of higher, deep-layer moisture moves in from
the Ohio Valley later this morning through this afternoon.
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop, and move
east across the Alleghenies toward the noon hour. This
convection will increase in intensity and coverage as it moves
east across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state
this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe
with hail and brief, localized strong downburst wind gusts of 50
to 60 mph possible.

Latest 26/00Z HREF supports increasing convection beneath the
favorable right entrance region of a 90 kt upper level jet
located over southern Ontario and Quebec. Convection- allowing
guidance supports mostly discrete convection, as the strongest
low level convergence remains over the Grt Lks with surface cold
front and possibly over eastern Pa with pre-frontal trough.
However, backing deep layer shear vectors may transition the
event into line segments with some possible broken-s radar
signatures associated with localized strong wind gusts where the
shear can become nearly orthogonal with the line segments.

SPC has expanded the SLGT risk to cover all of PA for this
afternoon and early evening.

Model soundings indicate mixing will result in falling surface
dewpoints in the afternoon across much of the area, so
anticipate CAPE only in the 500-1000 range for much of the
region. The exception could be over the eastern counties, where
there is enhanced southerly flow/moisture advection ahead of
pre-frontal trough.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just wanted to stop by and say good luck to everyone today. I think anyone in the CTP CWA and north of the turnpike in PHI's area looks good so far. Early clouds seem to be burning off or almost gone. The cell near Greensburg, PA already is dropping CG in an environment that is pretty meh...a good sign for central and eastern PA.

[Voyager]

We are in full on, wall to wall sunshine here right now. My backyard station has 83 with a dp of 66 currently.

[Itstrainingtime]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire CTP area until 8:00PM. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire CTP area until 8:00PM. 

That is a massive area. 56 PA counties and parts of 6 other states.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, TimB84 said:

That is a massive area. 56 PA counties and parts of 6 other states.

Yes it is. Storms seem to have pretty good forward motion coming out of western PA. 

[TimB]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes it is. Storms seem to have pretty good forward motion coming out of western PA. 

The ones moving into CTP now seem to really want to form a line. Still discrete cells out west.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

The ones moving into CTP now seem to really want to form a line. Still discrete cells out west.

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

[TimB]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

Instability was garbage here this morning. Sun came out and temp jumped from 78 to 83 in an hour. I’m no expert either, but I wonder if that plays a role.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, TimB84 said:

Instability was garbage here this morning. Sun came out and temp jumped from 78 to 83 in an hour. I’m no expert either, but I wonder if that plays a role.

I'm on the cusp (89) of 90 here, and man is it ever soupy...

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

If you want severe, you don’t want a line ahead. It kills any instability.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

If you want severe, you don’t want a line ahead. It kills any instability.  

Can't the first line become severe? Seems like any first line will be here during a favorable part of the day.

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can't the first line become severe? Seems like any first line will be here during a favorable part of the day.

This should help. It's a VERY good primer on severe wx for imo, esp for idiots like myself! http://thevane.gawker.com/what-is-a-supercell-thunderstorm-1564133584 

The front line def can but the chances of that are less than discrete cells popping due to instability. 

[WmsptWx]

Radar just showed another line popping up just south of the lake. It was looking like the initial line was dying over Cresson. Could be alright. 

[canderson]

@Itstrainingtime I should clarify - I'm talking mostly about tornadic or large hail creation storms. Lines definitely can pop, but you usually need discrete for the real scary stuff (Derichos and the like notwithstanding!). 

The stuff out west isn't lining up really, so someone will get some severe wx around here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Itstrainingtime I should clarify - I'm talking mostly about tornadic or large hail creation storms. Lines definitely can pop, but you usually need discrete for the real scary stuff (Derichos and the like notwithstanding!). 

The stuff out west isn't lining up really, so someone will get some severe wx around here. 

It was a good read, easy to understand with helpful graphics. Appreciate you posting the link!