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Central PA - Spring 2021


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6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Rains from Friday Am until Sunday Am nonstop in parts of the LSV.   This Mon the King drops the temp from near 70 At Midnight to 55 late afternoon at MDT. 

Why does it seem like every "summer" holiday is either rainy, cold, or both? Cookouts, swimming, and fireworks always seem to be ruined or in jeopardy. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Goofus still says that we will be sick of rain two weeks from now and get out your coats and long pants for Memorial Day weekend. 

Absolutely amazing what the GFS (6z) is showing for later next week into the weekend.  Specifically, a cold front drops down from the north later Thursday sending temps from the 60's into the 50's and then into the 40's.  Then MDT stays in the 40's from 9:00pm Thursday evening until about noon on Saturday.  With it raining a fair amount throughout Friday it keeps temps in the 40's with New England in the 30's!  If this happened the way it is depicted it would be totally unprecedented for late season cold.  Stunning!

Here's 2:00pm Friday afternoon...this is as warm as it gets all day Friday...

sfct.us_state_pa.png

 

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24 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Absolutely amazing what the GFS (6z) is showing for later next week into the weekend.  Specifically, a cold front drops down from the north later Thursday sending temps from the 60's into the 50's and then into the 40's.  Then MDT stays in the 40's from 9:00pm Thursday evening until about noon on Saturday.  With it raining a fair amount throughout Friday it keeps temps in the 40's with New England in the 30's!  If this happened the way it is depicted it would be totally unprecedented for late season cold.  Stunning!

Here's 2:00pm Friday afternoon...this is as warm as it gets all day Friday...

sfct.us_state_pa.png

 

W in the actual F??? That's crazy, and I really hope it doesn't happen. It's wrong on way too many levels... :(

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Goofus still says that we will be sick of rain two weeks from now and get out your coats and long pants for Memorial Day weekend. 

CTP going with mid 70s for now - I guess that's the smart call this far out. 

I will NOT get out any such thing at any point before next winter. :)  

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3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Absolutely amazing what the GFS (6z) is showing for later next week into the weekend.  Specifically, a cold front drops down from the north later Thursday sending temps from the 60's into the 50's and then into the 40's.  Then MDT stays in the 40's from 9:00pm Thursday evening until about noon on Saturday.  With it raining a fair amount throughout Friday it keeps temps in the 40's with New England in the 30's!  If this happened the way it is depicted it would be totally unprecedented for late season cold.  Stunning!

Here's 2:00pm Friday afternoon...this is as warm as it gets all day Friday...

sfct.us_state_pa.png

 

And the thing is you can’t toss it because most runs of the GFS are showing this and now the CMC has lows in the 30s next Saturday for some of PA as well.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

And the thing is you can’t toss it because most runs of the GFS are showing this and now the CMC has lows in the 30s next Saturday for some of PA as well.

A few days ago what looked like a sure bet to end May with positive averages is in trouble as we are still below average at MDT after yesterday.  Will probably go positive after tomorrow but even if GFS is 10 degrees too cold the averages plummet late week. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A few days ago what looked like a sure bet to end May with positive averages is in trouble as we are still below average at MDT after yesterday.  Will probably go positive after tomorrow but even if GFS is 10 degrees too cold the averages plummet late week. 

It wasn’t so cut and dry out west at any point (we hit mid-month over 7 degrees below normal), but for awhile I thought we’d still end up very close to average for the month as a whole, if not just slightly above. I think a cooler end of the week seals the deal for us to fall short, as we need to average like 84/63 over the last 9 days to get to normal.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps mean qpf through 10 . Pretty wet for a mean . Last evenings HH Euro was wettest run  for Monday ....Chambersburg to Gettysburg to Westminster.  0z backed off a bit . Nams aren't very excited about Monday ..not yet anyway. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_precip_inch-2592000.png

Extreme drought busting rains may be on the way!

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Meanwhile, in Montana...

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
328 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021

MTZ008-009-014-015-048-052-055-240000-
/O.CON.KTFX.WW.Y.0035.210523T1000Z-210524T0600Z/
Beaverhead-Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Central and Southern
Lewis and Clark-Madison-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Jefferson-
Gallatin-
Including the cities of West Yellowstone, Virginia City, Boulder
Hill, Targhee Pass, Raynolds Pass, Big Hole Pass, Chief Joseph
Pass, Wisdom, Elk Park Pass, Wise River, Monida Pass, Rogers
Pass, and Flesher Pass
328 AM MDT Sun May 23 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected for elevations above 5500 feet. Total snow
  accumulations 2 to 4 inches over passes and up to 9 inches for
  most mountain areas above pass level. Only an inch or less of snow
  likely in most valleys and on the foothills of the Rocky Mountain
  Front.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, southwest, and west central
  Montana.

* WHEN...Until Midnight MDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous.
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