paweather Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Getting hard to see the state outline in N PA with the radar returns. Quite Impressive. @2001kx should be enjoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Back to a Freeze Warning here for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Handful of flakes around lunch right off rt 72 in Lancaster. Looked around for trees with white flowers...saw none. Hehe Car temp said 46. Seen it before but not often. Happy spring n summer to all. Every time you sign off for the season and say Happy Spring and Summer, we get some snow in the next week or two. :-) Keep up the good work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, paweather said: Quite Impressive. @2001kx should be enjoying. Just breezed through the 12Z models and not one had more than a small speck of snow in PA right now. It's like the whole event is being ignored by data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just breezed through the 12Z models and not one had more than a small speck of snow in PA right now. It's like the whole event is being ignored by data. Yep. if we are going out with a Winter Bang this is the way to do it. I just went outside, wow cold blustery with some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 I guess I need to like thunderstorms again this year now. Not enough Snow for me in 2021 and a March Hiatus of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Low and behold CTP responded to me! My question: @NWSStateCollege why does the 5 min interval METAR data for KLNS show ten readings between 6-6:45am with a temp of 30 but the same site shows a 6 hour low of 31? The NWS regional roundup also shows LNS with a low of 31? Have noticed this in the past and with MDT as well. Thanks! Their response: It has to do with rounding. The 5-min obs are rounded to the nearest °C, converted to °F, and rounded again. So the low temperature was likely no less than -0.8°C, which is 30.56°F. This showed up as -1°C ~ 30.2°F in the 5-min observation, but the temp never got below 30.5°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low and behold CTP responded to me! My question: @NWSStateCollege why does the 5 min interval METAR data for KLNS show ten readings between 6-6:45am with a temp of 30 but the same site shows a 6 hour low of 31? The NWS regional roundup also shows LNS with a low of 31? Have noticed this in the past and with MDT as well. Thanks! Their response: It has to do with rounding. The 5-min obs are rounded to the nearest °C, converted to °F, and rounded again. So the low temperature was likely no less than -0.8°C, which is 30.56°F. This showed up as -1°C ~ 30.2°F in the 5-min observation, but the temp never got below 30.5°F. Interesting. There is still an issue with something whether the observation or their calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Anyone hear any thoughts on why the models were so off today? At this moment the whole Northeast is still covered with Precip not depicted on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Anyone hear any thoughts on why the models were so off today? At this moment the whole Northeast is still covered with Precip not depicted on any model. I have no idea at all, but wonder: Did yesterday's system "bomb out" stronger than anticipated, which in turn created a stronger gradient setup today? A strong NW flow combined with late April instability might cause more convection? The radar image you posted earlier had a very...convective look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I have no idea at all, but wonder: Did yesterday's system "bomb out" stronger than anticipated, which in turn created a stronger gradient setup today? A strong NW flow combined with late April instability might cause more convection? The radar image you posted earlier had a very...convective look to it. Yes, but why are the models initializing so poorly. They are still wrong now. I get it that models do not pick up fake snow all that well but usually they have some representation of the coverage. Most of PA saw some snow today. I saw a pic of someone who built a small snow man in Cumberland county (near Boiling Springs again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low and behold CTP responded to me! My question: @NWSStateCollege why does the 5 min interval METAR data for KLNS show ten readings between 6-6:45am with a temp of 30 but the same site shows a 6 hour low of 31? The NWS regional roundup also shows LNS with a low of 31? Have noticed this in the past and with MDT as well. Thanks! Their response: It has to do with rounding. The 5-min obs are rounded to the nearest °C, converted to °F, and rounded again. So the low temperature was likely no less than -0.8°C, which is 30.56°F. This showed up as -1°C ~ 30.2°F in the 5-min observation, but the temp never got below 30.5°F. Well it won’t get the low of 31 stricken from the record, but it at least seems to make sense. (Though what kind of system is this? This implies that 31.1 and 29.3 get displayed as 30.) But truly inspiring that you asked and they got back to you right away. Now I’m emboldened to try to settle my two issues with NWS Pittsburgh tomorrow - I was too busy today. But now this has me wondering if the +0.1 winter thing has something to do with this, let’s call it “compound rounding”, that they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 29 and a nice, calm winter morning. Some rumblings of another light freeze or frost tonight and Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 26 here this morning with frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Gorgeous morning, shaping up to be a spectacular day! Already up to 47 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Gorgeous morning, shaping up to be a spectacular day! Already up to 47 here. Up to 51 here but it is quite windy. 15 or so sustained. Bit chilly still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 12Z GFS has quite the cut off crawler with some mountain snows next weekend. Maybe Pasnow was right and the party is not over. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2021 Author Share Posted April 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS has quite the cut off crawler with some mountain snows next weekend. Maybe Pasnow was right and the party is not over. Ha. Knock it off already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: Knock it off already... LOL, when I posted that I knew you were going to be mad but hey...the models are the models. Not gonna snow for you. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Sunny and 60. Doesn't get much better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS has quite the cut off crawler with some mountain snows next weekend. Maybe Pasnow was right and the party is not over. Ha. Can't beat this setup. Well, we are in May, need a 1080 H to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Can't beat this setup. Well, we are in May, need a 1080 H to the north. Tuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Euro seems to have a cutoff low around the same time, but in a very different place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 37 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Euro seems to have a cutoff low around the same time, but in a very different place. I'm still holding out hope for May snow like last year. It is gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: Euro seems to have a cutoff low around the same time, but in a very different place. Would keep us quite wet. Related subject, the euro warm bias has been crazy this winter and spring. It was off by 10 degrees here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 CTP extending the warmth next week right through Friday. My point and click for Tuesday through Friday: 79, 81, 79, 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP extending the warmth next week right through Friday. My point and click for Tuesday through Friday: 79, 81, 79, 74. It's going to be a hot week for at least two days. Break out the shorts! MA is talking about low 90's which would be ridiculous. I would be surprised if it gets too much above 60 on Friday though. That front seems to mean business. Guess it could be delayed. Edit I just noticed the EC delays the front until Saturday. Different take and big contributor to the difference in the big low next weekend I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 20 hours ago, TimB84 said: Well it won’t get the low of 31 stricken from the record, but it at least seems to make sense. (Though what kind of system is this? This implies that 31.1 and 29.3 get displayed as 30.) But truly inspiring that you asked and they got back to you right away. Now I’m emboldened to try to settle my two issues with NWS Pittsburgh tomorrow - I was too busy today. But now this has me wondering if the +0.1 winter thing has something to do with this, let’s call it “compound rounding”, that they do. Yeah I told them I didn’t care for their methodology but that I would allow it haha. You should definitely contact Pittsburgh and see what they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2021 Author Share Posted April 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, when I posted that I knew you were going to be mad but hey...the models are the models. Not gonna snow for you. Too warm. I know. At this point in time it's just funnin' around. That's why the laughing emoji at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah I told them I didn’t care for their methodology but that I would allow it haha. You should definitely contact Pittsburgh and see what they say. I would have asked to speak to the manager! But in all seriousness, I’ll sit down this weekend and compose something. Did you do it via email or social media channels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now