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Central PA - Spring 2021


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What a crazy light and sound show this evening.  I didn't even need to look at the radar as my Tempest was showing near-constant flashes of lightning out at a distance of 20 miles away.  By the time the heavy rain and wind arrived there had been over 3000 strikes (within a 28-mile radius of my station).  At the arrival the winds picked up dramatically and began gusting multiple times to between 40 and 45 miles per hour.  Had a sustained 1-min average of 29mph (max) but plenty more 1-min's over 25.  Next, the torrential rain to add on to this morning's 1.20".  By the end I had picked up another 0.89" giving me a daily total of 2.09".  There had been a grand total of 4,853 lightning strikes with tonight's deluge.  Also, like many of you have already mentioned, continuous thunder that went on for more than 15 minutes.  That was definitely noteworthy.  This was the first time this year I had a daily total => 2.00".  Furthermore, today was another sub-1000mb day with the pressure bottoming out at 997mb.  Sandwiched in between those two events was occasional sunshine which boosted late afternoon temps up to 74 degrees.  I'm looking forward to maxes back down around 60 for a while.  All-in-all a pretty active spring weather day in these parts.

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ve had a Watch or Warning for much less over the years. This Storm tonight deserved it more than many failed storms with headlines from previous events.

What happened or didn't happen previously doesn't change the fact that last night's storms were not severe. There is specific criteria for a storm to reach severe level, just like there is with winter storms. Sorry - if CTP would have issued a warning, it would have been a failed forecast. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What happened or didn't happen previously doesn't change the fact that last night's storms were not severe. There is specific criteria for a storm to reach severe level, just like there is with winter storms. Sorry - if CTP would have issued a warning, it would have been a failed forecast. 

I disagree.

They often forget their role in sending proper messages to the public because they are too concerned with their internal criteria.

Sometimes the “spirit” of the law overrides the “letter” of the law.

I know that I had a severe thunderstorm here with violent lightning, but was not warned.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I disagree.

They often forget their role in sending proper messages to the public because they are too concerned with their internal criteria.

Sometimes the “spirit” of the law overrides the “letter” of the law.

I know that I had a severe thunderstorm here with violent lightning, but was not warned.

A severe thunderstorm contains winds greater than 58 mph and/or hail greater than 1" in diameter. That is the book definition. That is what CTP would be measured by for forecast accuracy. There is no lightning criteria.

I know what you are trying to say  - we can agree to disagree on this.

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I disagree.

They often forget their role in sending proper messages to the public because they are too concerned with their internal criteria.

Sometimes the “spirit” of the law overrides the “letter” of the law.

I know that I had a severe thunderstorm here with violent lightning, but was not warned.

Could have at least gave a severe weather statement.  Based on where your located and the way the storms were moving, we probably got that storm just a little later. I was watching the lightning before the storm showed up and the storm seemed to lose quite a bit of lightning when it showed up here.

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48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Probably doesn't help that admittedly, I am a very literal person. I drive people crazy because of how particular I can be - if I ask for "a couple" of one thing or another, I expect to receive 2. That is a couple to me. Not 3 or 4...2.

3 is a few. 4 is several. :)

Met's would love to go with that.  Cloudy with a chance of snow.  Accumulations will range from a couple inches to several inches.  Literal and not at the same time :-).

 

 

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15 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely increasing odds somewhere between ne Pa, to southern NY to NE sees some snow . Along the M/D we would need a trend south at h5 which Eps did bump today but a continuation is needed.  I'd personally like to see a few more flakes fly before the big heat / humidity ultimately gets us. 

The latest OP runs of the EC and GFS are fairly similar in what the eventual apparent weather would be for far NE PA and SE NY.  They are probably get excited or worried up there.   Euro is a bit slower and south of GFS right now. 

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