Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Today would have been a forum divider if it was snowing...looks like many areas in the SE part of this sub get close to if not over 1" of rain while far west areas see a tenth of an inch or two. Pouring rain here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version) When it gets out past 240 hours, there is not much more to look at for 2M temps except the GFS but yea everything is a grain of salt with GFS discussion. With that said the CMC shows the freeze now as well and it has been doing much better with temps. So still something to watch. Temps do not break freezing on April 2nd/Good Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. Yep, High Wind Watch issued for western PA for gusts to 60. Almost surely Advisory level if not the full High Wind product will be issued for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: When it gets out past 240 hours, there is not much more to look at for 2M temps except the GFS but yea everything is a grain of salt with GFS discussion. With that said the CMC shows the freeze now as well and it has been doing much better with temps. So still something to watch. Temps do not break freezing on April 2nd/Good Friday. Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875. Yea, its not at all a forecast but its along the same lines of the GFS frontal passage and freeze that it had a few days ago. I have been a little selfish with judging the CMC and only looking in my back yard but it has been the far better predictor of low temps recently....at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875. 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, its not at all a forecast but its along the same lines of the GFS frontal passage and freeze that it had a few days ago. I have been a little selfish with judging the CMC and only looking in my back yard but it has been the far better predictor of low temps recently....at my place. 4/6/1982 - I had a high of 29 with nearly 9" of windblown snow. Coldest day in April I've experienced...by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 4/6/1982 - I had a high of 29 with nearly 9" of windblown snow. Coldest day in April I've experienced...by a good bit. I should clarify, “nearly unprecedented” meaning there is only one April day in Pittsburgh’s history with a high of 27 or lower. There are a fair number of April days in our records including two in 2007 where we didn’t make freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875. Euro has what appears to be the front passage but not nearly as cold. GFS is sort of in between....has a couple night freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 8 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking. For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch. Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours. Pretty poor performance all around. Delurking to say, I'm glad we're getting some slow, steady rain today. York County didn’t show up on the drought maps last year and there were numerous days where storms were in the forecast, but very little actually made it to my backyard. It became something of a hobby to be outside watching storms as they headed east, just missing us to our north, while my poor lawn was dying. Some parts of York county did fine, but our section of Mt Zion hill was definitely hurting for lack of rain. A lot of homes in this area (including mine) rely on wells, so even mild droughts cause a bit of stress for everyone. I know the snow helped a bit and we’ve also had some rain over the past few weeks, but I don’t think we’ve recovered yet from last year’s deficit. I admit, I'm a Warminsta (sp?) and I love sunshine, but right now if the snow is over for the season, I'm hoping the sunny days will be scattered between lots of steady rain and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1.18" in the bucket. Did not see this coming, but I'll gladly take. Had to be a sharp cut off west of 81/83 judging by radar trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1.18" in the bucket. Did not see this coming, but I'll gladly take. Had to be a sharp cut off west of 81/83 judging by radar trends today. About .5” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 .86” total for me. The wind threat for friday looks like the real deal. You know CTP means business when they start throwing around terms like “isallobaric couplet” haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Streak said: Delurking to say, I'm glad we're getting some slow, steady rain today. York County didn’t show up on the drought maps last year and there were numerous days where storms were in the forecast, but very little actually made it to my backyard. It became something of a hobby to be outside watching storms as they headed east, just missing us to our north, while my poor lawn was dying. Some parts of York county did fine, but our section of Mt Zion hill was definitely hurting for lack of rain. A lot of homes in this area (including mine) rely on wells, so even mild droughts cause a bit of stress for everyone. I know the snow helped a bit and we’ve also had some rain over the past few weeks, but I don’t think we’ve recovered yet from last year’s deficit. I admit, I'm a Warminsta (sp?) and I love sunshine, but right now if the snow is over for the season, I'm hoping the sunny days will be scattered between lots of steady rain and thunderstorms. We were over 10" below normal for a large period of the summer last year. I know it was scattered but for some last years drought was moderate to major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: .86” total for me. The wind threat for friday looks like the real deal. You know CTP means business when they start throwing around terms like “isallobaric couplet” haha. It looks stronger the more north you go - which is usually the opposite. I fully expect multiple 50 mph gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, canderson said: It looks stronger the more north you go - which is usually the opposite. I fully expect multiple 50 mph gusts though. CTP indicating 45 mph gusts in my zone forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 EC is down with the early April deep freeze now. Nice frontal passage with big temp swing preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EC is down with the early April deep freeze now. Nice frontal passage with big temp swing preceding it. CPC says nada. Looks like something's gotta give... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Festus said: CPC says nada. Looks like something's gotta give... I would not bet on anything being right that far out... human or model but if it comes to fruition I would have to give the GFS a little credit for seeing it out in the 300+ hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I would not bet on anything being right that far out... human or model but if it comes to fruition I would have to give the GFS a little credit for seeing it out in the 300+ hr range. As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel... (can we still use that saying in this day and age?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel... (can we still use that saying in this day and age?) As long as you do not harm him :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 This whole daylight savings thing and waiting for the GFS to come out and show my Easter Snowstorm is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 46 minutes ago, FHS said: I have been reading spc convective outlook every day for years . I cant say I have ever seen wording like this. This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5 possible), with considerable destructive potential. A very moist boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms may have substantial tornado threats. Forecast wind fields and model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes. At any given time, boundary-layer instability should lessen with northward extent across the Ohio Valley. Nonetheless, warm advection will help to spread at least weak surface-based buoyancy over the region prior to cold frontal passage, with similarly intense deep shear as farther south. As such, the threat for severe winds and tornadoes in particular will extend into tonight, spreading up the Ohio Valley and toward the central/southern Appalachians. Overall severe potential should lessen to "slight" and "marginal levels" late tonight near the Appalachians as the mid/upper system and surface low move away from remaining optimal instability, and flow aloft becomes more boundary-parallel. A lot of people that know a lot about severe weather seem really concerned for what's about to transpire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Advisories hoisted. I expect house damage. Wind always overperforms advisories imo. Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 PAZ027-028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-260400- /O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.210326T1400Z-210326T2200Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Impressive cold front! Just in time for the Bunny day hopefully: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Good Friday....BRRRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Welp GFS is off today must have been a bad run for my Bunny Snowstorm. Plenty of runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Why...seriously, would any of you want a frigid Easter? I understand loving cold and snow, but Easter is a time for spring flowers and sun dresses and such. Not parkas and long underwear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, Voyager said: Why...seriously, would any of you want a frigid Easter? I understand loving cold and snow, but Easter is a time for spring flowers and sun dresses and such. Not parkas and long underwear... Sorry me. I'll put my hand up and accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: Sorry me. I'll put my hand up and accept it. No. It's all good. I just don't understand it. I love warm weather, but I don't really want 70 or 80 on Christmas Day. It's supposed to be cold, and perhaps snowy here at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: A lot of people that know a lot about severe weather seem really concerned for what's about to transpire... Probably a good thing for us it's early in the spring (and not having diurnal heating given time of the day) because a lot of these same dynamics driving the impending PDS situation in the deep south ride up through PA overnight into tomorrow morning. The NAM actually does briefly inject higher surface dewpoints, high helicity, and some CAPE (mainly 500-800) into eastern PA around daybreak but dry air aloft is already punched in at 700mb and most of the scattered showers/possible storms are lifted north. Seeing this type of a dynamic situation in say, May would likely be a much different story. At any rate, the wind situation looks to be a pretty significant deal tomorrow with most of the area easily seeing wind advisory criteria. Guess I'm the lucky one that get's the high wind warning in this situation. I don't often see a high wind warning actually verify here but this is looking like that once in a few years time that it actually does as I'm co-located nearest the best dynamics plus the immediate downslope off the Allegheny Front with the westerly winds. The Euro was through the roof (or blowing the roof away) with wind gusts around here in today's run. 18z 3k NAM coming in isn't quite that nuts but it's close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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