Itstrainingtime Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is exactly how I feel! What a miserable 4th quarter! It was a demoralizing loss. Unbelievable….! It is not over yet, but I don’t feel good about game 6 tomorrow night. They looked like a defeated team last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: This summer's going to suck if this keeps up... It's not good for a company that thrives on people buying ice cream and iced tea. We NEED hot weather. (even if I grouse a bit) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Like Tim mentioned, its still 4 degrees above average for the month at MDT. Its just a lot of variety. I haven’t mined this summer so far ( I guess unofficial so far). Last year was far worse with lack of moisture and more heat. Super cold this morn. Had a low of 45 at course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Will be going to bed feeling doo about rain this week though not so great about outdoor activities. Maybe a little clearing late Sunday on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: They looked like a defeated team last night. Like you said, when the lead got under 10 points, I knew that they were in trouble. They had chances to put the game away, but nothing went right in the 4th quarter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I haven’t mined this summer so far ( I guess unofficial so far). Last year was far worse with lack of moisture and more heat. Super cold this morn. Had a low of 45 at course Oh yes, a much more traditional summer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 We've been talking about temps, but my dewpoint at 6pm on June 17th is 39. 39. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's not good for a company that thrives on people buying ice cream and iced tea. We NEED hot weather. (even if I grouse a bit) Your post reminds me of a interesting "fact". Eating regular ice cream makes your body warmer due to the fat content. So you could sell to people on warm or cool days. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We've been talking about temps, but my dewpoint at 6pm on June 17th is 39. 39. Awesome! At least today is not 95 and humid after that disaster of a game last night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, Voyager said: This summer's going to suck if this keeps up... We’ll pay for this when it’s 85 for 3/4 of October. I’m not kidding. I think it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 It’s only 93 out right now. But they DP is 74. Yes, 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: We’ll pay for this when it’s 85 for 3/4 of October. I’m not kidding. I think it happens. You may be right. It seems as if our seasons are moving. Colder in late spring and warmer in late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 6 hours ago, TimB84 said: Euro doing Euro things. Slower frontal passage Tuesday. (But 91 to 64 in 24 hours in my neck of the woods.) Rain supported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 15 hours ago, canderson said: Hey @sauss06 I told you it’s not just smoked meats. Here is a lemon, lavender and sweet cream snowcone. PA needs real snowcones - the junk they have like Rita’s is trash. That looks good. How fast does that melt in the mega death heat there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Your post reminds me of a interesting "fact". Eating regular ice cream makes your body warmer due to the fat content. So you could sell to people on warm or cool days. LOL. This is why I'm an advocate for 33 degree beer 12 hours ago, canderson said: We’ll pay for this when it’s 85 for 3/4 of October. I’m not kidding. I think it happens. I have suspicion you could be right. am i correct that it Looks like the rain moves in overnight tonight, then clear early tomorrow? is Sunday still looking like sunny, high 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, sauss06 said: This is why I'm an advocate for 33 degree beer I have suspicion you could be right. am i correct that it Looks like the rain moves in overnight tonight, then clear early tomorrow? is Sunday still looking like sunny, high 80s? As you know I forecast using models as much as anything else but the GFS, Nam, and CMC all have rain around the LSV area starting overnight and on and off through the day tomorrow. Looking at their forecasts it may clear and then cloud up and rain again Sat Afternoon. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as well but looks a bit better than Sat right now. Highs in the mid 80's on Sunday. Euro looks drier than the others for Sat with rain coming overnight Sat night and risky for light rain Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Rain supported. Are any of the models more reliable than others right now? If I’m remembering correctly, last summer the Euro was more consistently accurate with the heat while other models were undershooting by a few to several degrees. (I know it’s all just guidance and I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but I’m really rooting for some rain here.) Beautiful morning in York county — 63 and clear skies at 7:23 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, Streak said: Are any of the models more reliable than others right now? If I’m remembering correctly, last summer the Euro was more consistently accurate with the heat while other models were undershooting by a few to several degrees. (I know it’s all just guidance and I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but I’m really rooting for some rain here.) Beautiful morning in York county — 63 and clear skies at 7:23 am. In my opinion, the American models are usually 2-5 degrees too cool on the really hot days (though sometimes its hard to see their actual forecast since some only show maps in 3-6 hour jumps). But the other way around, the Euro is too warm when it over does a slightly or moderately warm forecast.... especially at night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 I like to post this mainly for entertainment purposes - this map often seems to be wrong unless it shows 10" of rain over OBX which verified perfectly, but here is WPC's take on the next week and rainfall: Not a "lot" of rain over eastern PA considering we have several chances to get wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: As you know I forecast using models as much as anything else but the GFS, Nam, and CMC all have rain around the LSV area starting overnight and on and off through the day tomorrow. Looking at their forecasts it may clear and then cloud up and rain again Sat Afternoon. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as well but looks a bit better than Sat right now. Highs in the mid 80's on Sunday. Euro looks drier than the others for Sat with rain coming overnight Sat night and risky for light rain Sunday. CTP only has me at 30-40% probs until early next week. They don't seem overly enthused about rain chances east of the river until later Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: In my opinion, the American models are usually 2-5 degrees too cool on the really hot days (though sometimes its hard to see their actual forecast since some only show maps in 3-6 hour jumps). But the other way around, the Euro is too warm when it over does a slightly or moderately warm forecast.... especially at night. But does the problem you mentioned arise here too: given that the Euro maps display in 6 hour increments, you get a 6z and a 12z. In winter the 12z is awfully close to when the low temperature would normally occur but in the summer the low temperature typically occurs closer to 9-10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 47 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But does the problem you mentioned arise here too: given that the Euro maps display in 6 hour increments, you get a 6z and a 12z. In winter the 12z is awfully close to when the low temperature would normally occur but in the summer the low temperature typically occurs closer to 9-10z. 6Z is too close to 9-10Z for it to be constantly double digits too high. GFS 6Z temps are much closer to reality on these occasions. But yea its not a perfect science since it is not an hourly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 6Z is too close to 9-10Z for it to be constantly double digits too high. GFS 6Z temps are much closer to reality on these occasions. But yea its not a perfect science since it is not an hourly map. Indeed, GFS seems to handle radiational cooling a lot better than the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Indeed, GFS seems to handle radiational cooling a lot better than the EC. You will have a lot of people argue that the EC should be put away when an event is closer than 3 days but not sure I am on that bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just hit 72 here. Looks like some areas of the LSV are in the 80's already. Bit warmer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just hit 72 here. Looks like some areas of the LSV are in the 80's already. Bit warmer today. The 80 you see on the map between Columbia and Elizabethtown is 2 miles down the road from me. I'm at 81 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: The 80 you see on the map between Columbia and Elizabethtown is 2 miles down the road from me. I'm at 81 now. Surprised an 80 that close to the river but guess wind direction plays a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 I'm currently at 78. What a spectacular morning. Its national flip flop day, i should be at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: I'm currently at 78. What a spectacular morning. Its national flip flop day, i should be at the beach. Be careful how you use that term around our models. They are touchy when they hear that term! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 GFS has Temps under 70 (on the maps) from Monday Night until Thursday AM next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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