canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'm not betting on anything severe though. We have the usual lead gray, solid overcast here this morning. Seems like any time we have strong to severe potential we battle with overcast and cool (68 degree) weather. If it weren't for green vegetation, it would look like a snow day... This should clear up by 1ish for some instability to bound up before late afternoon. I think there will be severe in the NW and SE portions of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Looks like a luck of the draw type day to me but as someone (Canderson?) said the models more favor the S/W LSV though the HRR has a large area of convection come through further east over night. It is so humid I think every area gets some rain near it by this afternoon. 50 minutes ago, canderson said: This should clear up by 1ish for some instability to bound up before late afternoon. I think there will be severe in the NW and SE portions of this forum. Thanks guys. I was stunned to return home last evening and find out I got just over a half inch of rain for the entire week. It sounded like we got a lot more than that. Hopefully today works out- minus the severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Here in York, we are totally socked in with clouds! I think it is from the remains of the MCS now moving out of PA and into MD? I hope we break in sun here soon… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wow! I got home late yesterday to find .56" in my gauge. Over 1" less than you. Yeah it's kind of wild for what was really a more stratiform type rain to have that type of sharp cutoff but that's exactly what happened and the fault line fell right over our area. A couple miles to my south near Mountville people got 2 inches or more and just a couple miles to my north around Mount Joy the tallies were more in your neighborhood of a half inch to an inch. The radar estimates of total precip were wildly off as well, as much of it came via low clouds that the radar had trouble picking up, particularly around our area with it's notorious radar hole and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thanks guys. I was stunned to return home last evening and find out I got just over a half inch of rain for the entire week. It sounded like we got a lot more than that. Hopefully today works out- minus the severe. You got more than me … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 13, 2021 Author Share Posted June 13, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: This should clear up by 1ish for some instability to bound up before late afternoon. I think there will be severe in the NW and SE portions of this forum. We're still socked in at 1:20pm, so I don't know. The sun TRIED to pop out at my grandson's baseball game but it was just brief couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, canderson said: You got more than me … Being on vacation I was only half paying attention - it just seemed like all the talk last week was about heavy rains and potential flooding. I got home and was surprised. Drove through parts of NE North Carolina who have had over 14" of rain in the past 2 weeks. There's water everywhere, and I mean that. There's no where for it to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: We're still socked in at 1:20pm, so I don't know. The sun TRIED to pop out at my grandson's baseball game but it was just brief couple minutes. Sky has gotten even darker here since noon. It looks like an early afternoon in January when snow's about to break out, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sky has gotten even darker here since noon. It looks like an early afternoon in January when snow's about to break out, lol Yeah the sky is even darker here now too…if we can’t clear these clouds by 3, I think we are cooked for anything today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Voyager said: We're still socked in at 1:20pm, so I don't know. The sun TRIED to pop out at my grandson's baseball game but it was just brief couple minutes. Yea, same here. It got brighter but darker. CTP seems to indicate it won’t make a difference however and severe is expected. From the 1:30 pm disco: Meanwhile, the cumulus field over much of central PA has grown more bubbly with daytime heating/destabilization. As more short-wave energy approaches later this afternoon/early evening, along with a surface trough axis, convection should fire most areas. Given steepening LRs over a deep layer, dry air aloft, and effective shear near 30 knots, localized severe wind gusts and hail remain a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Being on vacation I was only half paying attention - it just seemed like all the talk last week was about heavy rains and potential flooding. I got home and was surprised. Drove through parts of NE North Carolina who have had over 14" of rain in the past 2 weeks. There's water everywhere, and I mean that. There's no where for it to go. Some areas of Lancaster county got in excess of 5" last week. You were just a bit north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 We got about 1/3 to 1/2" with that first round that just passed by in the last couple hours. Bet any big rains are east of me this afternoon...which is just fine. I have had my fill the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We got about 1/3 to 1/2" with that first round that just passed by in the last couple hours. Bet any big rains are east of me this afternoon...which is just fine. I have had my fill the last 3 days. Looked like it all missed you to the west. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Looked like it all missed you to the west. Congrats The really heavy stuff did go to our west and over Hagerstown. I seem some 1" estimates. I was down there when it hit and road flooding was pretty bad for a short while as it all came down in 15 min. The radar estimated total here is .21" but my gauge was between .3 and .4. I was not here to see it actually fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 The majority of this region was just blue-boxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Still waiting for that sun lol… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Severe TS watch hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Sun finally came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Hrrr, Nam and CMC have a weak slp slipping under us tomorrow evening. Really fires things up tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Sun is finally starting to come out here…storms are firing in north PA. Question is do we have have time to work in some instability before losing daylight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Sometimes seeing is not believing. The dot for Williamsport on radar was covered with yellow under a rain blob. I thought "What rain?" and went out to take a look. It has just started to rain, it is not heavy at all and there is still a patch of blue skies and white clouds in the northeast corner of the sky. We have a thunderstorm watch and warning so I guess that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hrrr, Nam and CMC have a weak slp slipping under us tomorrow evening. Really fires things up tomorrow evening. CTP has hinted at that since early this am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 There are currently 21 different severe tstorm warnings from Texas to PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Nothing major to report around here this afternoon as most of the action has been firing in north-central and southwestern PA. Do have some nice mammatus clouds downstream of the Pittsburgh storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 So we may get a shower but the LSV appears to be completely left out to dry today. The system didn’t materialize so the warm/cool aloft aren’t going to bring downpours as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Looks like some more rain today. SYNOPSIS... After a relatively tranquil morning, a vigorous upper level disturbance will track southeast from the Great Lakes Region and spark another few rounds of heavy showers and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Locally over one inch of rain will fall over portions of Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley, near the path of an organized area of surface low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 There was some nice thunder and lightning at around 2 am lastnight...probably one of the best so far besides the late April thunderstorm we got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Looks like some more rain today. SYNOPSIS... After a relatively tranquil morning, a vigorous upper level disturbance will track southeast from the Great Lakes Region and spark another few rounds of heavy showers and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Locally over one inch of rain will fall over portions of Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley, near the path of an organized area of surface low pressure. That is pretty gung ho. Over 1" in storms I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 12 hours ago, canderson said: So we may get a shower but the LSV appears to be completely left out to dry today. The system didn’t materialize so the warm/cool aloft aren’t going to bring downpours as predicted. Howz about that thunder boomer over night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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