Central PA - Spring 2021

[pawatch]

10 hours ago, Newman said:

I'm traveling up with a buddy to Tiadaghton State Forest in Lycoming a week from now to do a 3-4 day backpacking trip on the Black Forest Trail. Fingers crossed 1. The heat breaks for us and 2. The forecast is dry.

Hit this bar up, excellent food!! They have a couple big smokers. Top of the mountain 44 north. Come to the T - the restaurant you can see on the left.

https://m.zmenu.com/mountain-top-and-provisions-lock-haven-online-menu/

They got some huge rattlers up there...careful.

Have Fun!

[Streak]

 

55 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Speaking of cicadas, the Hazleton area is infested with them, yet nothing in my neighborhood.

Nothing here in York yet either, and I’m not complaining. They never used to bother me but the past couple years they’ve been getting quite loud.

On the upside, I’m glad to see the fireflies have finally been out the past few nights. If I’m not mistaken, they used to show up sometime during the 3rd or 4th week of May, but both this year and last year they had a late start. I read somewhere that the unseasonably cold weather in May delays their usual cycle.  

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Streak said:

 

Nothing here in York yet either, and I’m not complaining. They never used to bother me but the past couple years they’ve been getting quite loud.

On the upside, I’m glad to see the fireflies have finally been out the past few nights. If I’m not mistaken, they used to show up sometime during the 3rd or 4th week of May, but both this year and last year they had a late start. I read somewhere that the unseasonably cold weather in May delays their usual cycle.  

That’s a bit surprising. A friend lives very close to Roundtop and it’s infested there. She posted a video and it’s SO loud. I’ve seen some in the city but not many, but they’re all over the burbs. 

[Streak]

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

That’s a bit surprising. A friend lives very close to Roundtop and it’s infested there. She posted a video and it’s SO loud. I’ve seen some in the city but not many, but they’re all over the burbs. 

Sounds like they’ll be arriving here shortly, then. I’m about 15 miles SE of Roundtop. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I caught the edge of a storm earlier that formed right over me, dropped a quick .14”. A buddy only a half mile away got nary a drop. Also no cicadas anywhere in this part of Lancaster County that I’ve noticed, not yet anyway. 

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, Streak said:

Sounds like they’ll be arriving here shortly, then. I’m about 15 miles SE of Roundtop. 

I’d think but they are odd creatures. They only have a few more weeks in their life cycle. 

[Bubbler86]

31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I caught the edge of a storm earlier that formed right over me, dropped a quick 14”. A buddy only a half mile away got nary a drop. Also no cicadas anywhere in this part of Lancaster County that I’ve noticed, not yet anyway. 

I know it is a typo but I still have to say it, a quick 14" sounds like a sight to see!   No FFW?  LOL

[Mount Joy Snowman]

You should have seen it! Barns floating by me.....actually measured 9” in one ten minute period. ‘Twas wild! But yes you got me haha, fixed the post 

[Bubbler86]

31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You should have seen it! Barns floating by me.....actually measured 9” in one ten minute period. ‘Twas wild! But yes you got me haha, fixed the post 

Haha.  I have tons of typos so in no position to say anything but the phrase quick 14" was funny.  Ha.

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hello there ...in the gulf . Euro hinting at some homebrew action . I actually been slammed with my electrical business.  The busiest in 15 years so  I haven't barely looked at modeling . But 1st time I've looked at anything past 5 days and bingo lol

I’ll be in Houston next Thursday through Monday. So perfect timing. 

[Bubbler86]

42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Thursday was supposed  to be the best chance of rain but Looking at guidance the trend has been for the backdoor CF to press further south . The good rains stay mostly sw of south central Pa and extreme N.Md.  something to watch

The whole week has been a fizzle so far except for certain areas east of the Susq. River. and Shrewsbury which has receive 5" of rain since Saturday. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

3 days ago was looking like a fun week of convection. 

Areas in southeast Pa, DE,Jersey looked to be the driest tomorrow and Friday but many of those areas have been dumped on past day or 2 . I'd like to get a flush hit TS imby before the week is out though 

If we miss out this week a full on drought could be on.  

[sauss06]

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole week has been a fizzle so far except for certain areas east of the Susq. River. and Shrewsbury which has receive 5" of rain since Saturday. 

Yesterday at work in Harrisburg, it down poured for a solid 20-30 minutes. not even 1 mile away west as the crow flies, 37 drops of rain. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Yesterday at work in Harrisburg, it down poured for a solid 20-30 minutes. not even 1 mile away west as the crow flies, 37 drops of rain. 

I mentioned it yesterday but really seems like Harrisburg and East/South score in these types of patterns.  Not everyone but out west there is very little scoring the last couple years.  Maybe that changes this week. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

uuuuuuhhhhhh what is happening in this thread?? haha

[TimB]

@Bubbler86looks like the models are going to screw both Western and Central PA out of a nice pleasant weekend. I knew it was marginal at best for me, but had hope for Central PA. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86looks like the models are going to screw both Western and Central PA out of a nice pleasant weekend. I knew it was marginal at best for me, but had hope for Central PA. 

Yea, it seems to focus the one cool day on Friday over here. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86looks like the models are going to screw both Western and Central PA out of a nice pleasant weekend. I knew it was marginal at best for me, but had hope for Central PA. 

You still have 2-3 nights in the 40's next week (GFS).

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

You still have 2-3 nights in the 40's next week.

I’d trade all 3 midweek days for a Saturday without question. I do like the 6z GFS “hurricane remnants mitigate the heat” solution in the longer term.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’d trade all 3 midweek days for a Saturday without question. I do like the 6z GFS “hurricane remnants mitigate the heat” solution in the longer term.

Lots of flooding west of us with that solution.  

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lots of flooding west of us with that solution.  

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

That scenario is a big indicator of some kind of change that has happened to our patterns.  It keeps happening over and over, year after year.  

[sauss06]

29 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86looks like the models are going to screw both Western and Central PA out of a nice pleasant weekend. I knew it was marginal at best for me, but had hope for Central PA. 

so heat remains?

[TimB]

Just now, sauss06 said:

so heat remains?

You get a break from it on Friday and mid-next week.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

You get a break from it on Friday and mid-next week.

And its relative.  No 90's just a bit above average. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And its relative.  No 90's just a bit above average. 

On the subject of heat, MDT reaches 100 fairly regularly, right? Like a 5-10 year event?

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

On the subject of heat, MDT reaches 100 fairly regularly, right? Like a 5-10 year event?

Between June 25 and Aug 10, the daily high max at MDT has been 100 or over 30 of the 47 days so not at all uncommon.  Some of those were same year/multi-day events but I am sure there are other days where it has hit 100 more than once on that day in the past.   I bet someone has exact stats but would say its not at all a "rare" event. 

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Between June 25 and Aug 10, the daily high max at MDT has been 100 or over 30 of the 47 days so not at all uncommon.  Some of those were same year/multi-day events but I am sure there are other days where it has hit 100 more than once on that day in the past.   I bet someone has exact stats but would say its not at all a "rare" event. 

Paging @Jns2183 - JSN2183 to the batphone. 

[Bubbler86]

A drawing of winners and losers so far this week.  Has the Shrewsbury flood plain clearly visible over the 83 marker.  

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The hot spot yesterday was central Chester County.  The area between Coatesville and Downingtown really took it on the chin, with a number of reports >5".  Saw some intervals where 1/2" fell in 5 minutes, that's about as heavy as it gets around these parts.