Voyager Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 4:13 PM, Bubbler86 said: GFS has Temps under 70 (on the maps) from Monday Night until Thursday AM next week. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 4:23 PM, Voyager said: Expand You might get near 90 this Monday. A little something for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 1:43 PM, TimB84 said: Indeed, GFS seems to handle radiational cooling a lot better than the EC. Expand 12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend. Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 5:37 PM, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend. Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. Expand As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 5:43 PM, TimB84 said: As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope. Expand Fantasy land but we if get into Mid July with no sustained Summer Heat Waves (90 a day or two is not a heat wave) it would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Euro holds off any LSV rains until 24 hours from now and it is a bit stingy outside the winner stripe. Early week tropical moisture is VA Beach and south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 She's getting toasty this afternoon - up to 87 here. My point and click is for a high of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Also - grass has browned quickly again this week. Really noticing it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 6:27 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Also - grass has browned quickly again this week. Really noticing it today. Expand Over here as well...for the places I still had grass from last year. The super sun doing its deed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 After looking at the 18Z Nam, I am headed out to water everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 5:37 PM, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend. Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. Expand On 6/18/2021 at 5:43 PM, TimB84 said: As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope. Expand C'mon guys, the 4th is supposed to be hot, just like Christmas is supposed to be cold. And I know, this past Christmas Eve was warmish, but...it came with an all day rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 9:59 PM, Voyager said: C'mon guys, the 4th is supposed to be hot, just like Christmas is supposed to be cold. And I know, this past Christmas Eve was warmish, but...it came with an all day rain. Expand Not wishing anything just reading models. 24 hours ago the 4th was going to be blazing hot and then all of a sudden it is not. I actually hope the 4th is warm and sunny. 80's and low humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 10:11 PM, Bubbler86 said: Not wishing anything just reading models. 24 hours ago the 4th was going to be blazing hot and then all of a sudden it is not. I actually hope the 4th is warm and sunny. 80's and low humidity. Expand I'll take that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 The 4th should be hot indeed. I mean I’d love a 70 degree high but it should be 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Sixers are off the hook after the Jazz played an 'F Note' and collapsed both in their series and the final game. Send in the clowns for Quin Snyder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Eesh, weekend rains seeming really scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:17 PM, Bubbler86 said: Eesh, weekend rains seeming really scattered. Expand .007 from overnight here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Will there be a severe weather threat in the mid an lower Susquehanna Valley later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:21 PM, mahantango#1 said: Will there be a severe weather threat in the mid an lower Susquehanna Valley later today? Expand HRRR thinks so just very scattered and more to the south side of the LSV. No sun here currently. Shaping up to be a humid but not so hot day over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 @Bubbler86did you see the 6z GFS’s take on the 4th of July? Won’t post because it’s both fantasy land and blasphemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:53 PM, TimB84 said: @Bubbler86did you see the 6z GFS’s take on the 4th of July? Won’t post because it’s both fantasy land and blasphemy. Expand I did and I did not post out of respect for the others so same vein of thought in your blasphemy comment. I would put it on the scale of seeing a 384 hour MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:55 PM, Bubbler86 said: I did and I did not post out of respect for the others so same vein of thought in your blasphemy comment. I would put it on the scale of seeing a 340 hour MECS. Expand I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:57 PM, TimB84 said: I’m also in the camp of wanting a pleasantly warm 4th of July. Somewhere around 80 w/o humidity would be ideal. That said, 70 would be preferable to 90, and 60 would be preferable to 100. Expand One thing about this year is some people may be celebrating on Monday. But yes that depiction is definitely not a preference of me either. Midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 12:59 PM, Bubbler86 said: One thing about this year is some people may be celebrating on Monday. But yes that depiction is definitely not a preference of me either. Midnight high. Expand Fortunately we get about 60 model runs for that to change, and we know for at least the next 5 or 6 days each run of the GFS will alternate between that scenario and a massive heat wave and everything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:02 PM, TimB84 said: Fortunately we get about 60 model runs for that to change, and we know for at least the next 5 or 6 days each run of the GFS will alternate between that scenario and a massive heat wave and everything in between. Expand A couple days ago it was leading up to a July 4th firecracker of a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:03 PM, Bubbler86 said: A couple days ago it was leading up to a July 4th firecracker of a heat wave. Expand GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:09 PM, TimB84 said: GFS is Exhibit A when it comes to illustrating the practical limits on how far out you can realistically model/forecast. Of course, now we have the GEFS ensemble that goes to 840 hours instead of 384. Wonder what the accuracy of that thing is at day 35. Expand I think the MA LR Thread is Exhibit 1A on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:10 PM, Bubbler86 said: I think the MA LR Thread is Exhibit 1A on that. Expand They seem to enjoy their summers with wall-to-wall gates of hell heat, so it’s exciting when any model shows that, whether it’s 2 days out or 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:17 PM, TimB84 said: They seem to enjoy their summers with wall-to-wall gates of hell heat, so it’s exciting when any model shows that, whether it’s 2 days out or 25. Expand It is ironic since that thread used to be all about coldmeisters. The break from Covid really changed the make up down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On 6/19/2021 at 1:23 PM, Bubbler86 said: It is ironic since that thread used to be all about coldmeisters. The break from Covid really changed the make up down there. Expand Unapologetic card-carrying coldmeister here (obviously). Be interesting to see if that changes as I get older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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