Itstrainingtime Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 4:16 PM, Bubbler86 said: Light rain has commenced. See it is raining in Lanco as well. Expand Hmm...sun is still poking out here. Ah - I see it now...nice little cell popper over the city and moving into eastern Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 4:36 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Hmm...sun is still poking out here. Ah - I see it now...nice little cell popper over the city and moving into eastern Lanco. Expand Yea, little areas showing up in several areas of the LSV. Main show still a bit away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 4:46 PM, losetoa6 said: We are definitely to far north but Hrrr spitting out a decent tornado parameter for areas near DC . Probably Hrrr overdoing it butt... Expand Keep that kind of stuff WAY far away from us. A nice soaking rain is perfectly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 4:46 PM, losetoa6 said: We are definitely to far north but Hrrr spitting out a decent tornado parameter for areas near DC . Probably Hrrr overdoing it butt... Expand Warm sector pain. I googled Tornado and Washington DC and see it is a rare occurrence but did see this interesting piece of info. The most significant tornado to ever hit Washington, D.C., came on August 25, 1814, as British troops were burning the city during the War of 1812. While the city was burning, a massive storm – which may have included both a hurricane and a tornado – hit the city. During the storm, a tornado traveled down Constitution Avenue and reportedly threw multiple canons through the air. At least 30 people were killed in the storm, which caused serious damage to structures in D.C. – including some the British had not burned. The storm did, however, have the effect of helping to douse the fires set by British troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 GFS doubles down on the wet pattern late next week and is that a tropical storm coming up from Cuba into the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 4:21 PM, losetoa6 said: Gfs and nam with 40s for Saturday and Sunday's highs Bonfires and beer for this kid . Once I put away the long sleeves they don't return till October at earliest Expand What do the 850s look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:10 PM, Bubbler86 said: GFS doubles down on the wet pattern late next week and is that a tropical storm coming up from Cuba into the Gulf? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 @paweatherwe wouldn’t have even had to go all the way to North Dakota to see snow, it sounds like parts of Michigan saw flakes and parts of central/western Wisconsin had minor accumulations on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:29 PM, TimB84 said: @paweatherwe wouldn’t have even had to go all the way to North Dakota to see snow, it sounds like parts of Michigan saw flakes and parts of central/western Wisconsin had minor accumulations on grassy surfaces. Expand LOL. Yep. I am changing my travel plans now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:30 PM, paweather said: LOL. Yep. I am changing my travel plans now. Expand Probably too late now, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:10 PM, Bubbler86 said: GFS doubles down on the wet pattern late next week and is that a tropical storm coming up from Cuba into the Gulf? Expand Leaving for OBX next Saturday...let's see if I can top the 10" of rain that I received last year on vacation down there. If anyone can get more than 10" of rain from one week at the beach...it'll be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Without a shred of evidence and only stating assumption, I am guessing this is the most this forum has talked about snow on any Memorial day in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:38 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Leaving for OBX next Saturday...let's see if I can top the 10" of rain that I received last year on vacation down there. If anyone can get more than 10" of rain from one week at the beach...it'll be me. Expand I remember that time for you. It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there. You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:38 PM, Bubbler86 said: Without a shred of evidence and only stating assumption, I am guessing this is the most this forum has talked about snow on any Memorial day in the past. Expand I would think so, and I feel it tomorrow I am going to see snow fall.......well, maybe in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:40 PM, Bubbler86 said: I remember that time for you. It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there. You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. Expand Correct - though the overall pattern suggests that unsettled weather probably returns by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:40 PM, Bubbler86 said: I remember that time for you. It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there. You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. Expand Just curious, what model last Friday wasn’t showing 80s-90s for PA on D8-9? On second thought, you could cherry pick a day from just about any GFS run at any time of the year and find temps 20-30 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Still have a good bit of sunshine here through the cloud deck. 68 and breezy, though not nearly as windy as this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:40 PM, Bubbler86 said: I remember that time for you. It had initially showed the rain up here but kept contracting and most only affected you down there. You know this but I would not worry too much about day 8-9 GFS forecasts. Expand Seriously? The stats I keep tells me the GFS is 75% accurate on Day 8-9. Let me recalibrate my stat machine first though. * Sorry it is now at 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 5:44 PM, TimB84 said: Just curious, what model last Friday wasn’t showing 80s-90s for PA on D8-9? On second thought, you could cherry pick a day from just about any GFS run at any time of the year and find temps 20-30 degrees below normal. Expand Right or wrong the GFS (new or old) supplies us fodder for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:00 PM, Bubbler86 said: Right or wrong the GFS (new or old) supplies us fodder for discussion. Expand Indeed it does. But in all honesty, it does seem to do better than most with pattern changes. That’s why I’m worried about all these 90s in later portions of most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:03 PM, TimB84 said: Indeed it does. But in all honesty, it does seem to do better than most with pattern changes. That’s why I’m worried about all these 90s in later portions of most runs. Expand It definitely is more believable with extreme possibilities than the too steady Euro. The Euro must have some type of built in procedure to limit run to run changes as when it is wrong it just keeps going to the well with its wrongness. The GFS flips the script every 6-12 hours if needed. As far as summer returning June 6/7th, I am afraid we would be asking too much for this extended late winter/spring weather to continue too far into June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:10 PM, Bubbler86 said: It definitely is more believable with extreme possibilities than the too steady Euro. The Euro must have some type of built in procedure to limit run to run changes as when it is wrong it just keeps going to the well with its wrongness. The GFS flips the script every 6-12 hours if needed. As far as the summer returning June 6/7th, I am afraid we would be asking too much for this extended late winter/spring weather to continue too far into June. Expand Indeed, it wouldn’t be summer without 90 degree temperatures being around on a regular basis. Except for 2004, where the temperature never even got to 88 at Pittsburgh, which is incredible every time it pops into my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:12 PM, TimB84 said: Indeed, it wouldn’t be summer without 90 degree temperatures being around on a regular basis. Except for 2004, where the temperature never even got to 88 at Pittsburgh, which is incredible every time it pops into my mind. Expand Except for the damage to our farmers, a summer of 1816 would be interesting to live though. Cape May had frost 5 days in a row in June. Frost in South VA in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:29 PM, Bubbler86 said: Except for the damage to our farmers, a summer of 1816 would be interesting to live through. Cape May had frost 5 days in a row in June. Frost in South VA in August. Expand Sure would be, we just need a major volcanic eruption to completely disrupt our weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, TimB84 said: Sure would be, we just need a major volcanic eruption to completely disrupt our weather patterns. Expand Would that bring snow in the summer time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, paweather said: Would that bring snow in the summer time? Expand Who knows? We can dream, can’t we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, TimB84 said: Sure would be, we just need a major volcanic eruption to completely disrupt our weather patterns. Expand https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/28/africa/drc-goma-volcano-eruption-intl/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:34 PM, TimB84 said: Who knows? We can dream, can’t we? Expand This snow seems a bit ashy and dry..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:34 PM, Bubbler86 said: https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/28/africa/drc-goma-volcano-eruption-intl/index.html Expand Not sure if I can root for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 On 5/28/2021 at 6:35 PM, Bubbler86 said: This snow seems a bit ashy and dry..... Expand I'll call it a day, and take a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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