Voyager Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Being that I'm the forum Warmanista, I figured it appropriate for me to start a thread for discussion of all topics and events of the Spring equinox. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Feels appropriate indeed. Winter is dead. Might as well hope for a long spring MF delay the 85+ degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Its a beaut walking around Ft Ritchie. Only 55 but sun makes it feel much nice with only a light breeze. Some people out kayaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 15 hours ago, Voyager said: Being that I'm the forum Warmanista, I figured it appropriate for me to start a thread for discussion of all topics and events of the Spring equinox. I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread! The GFS is sure to spin something up soon. It still spinning up a terrible April Fools day for the warm crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 65 beautiful degrees this afternoon. Absolutely a perfect Sunday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 22, 2021 Author Share Posted March 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I need to find some snow maps soon for this Spring thread! Oh no you don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Oh no you don't... Agreed...Bring on summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 A chilly 29 to start off the work week. It's that time of year - opening up the site this morning and seeing that the last posts in subs happened up to 10 hours ago tells you everything you need to know without going any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: A chilly 29 to start off the work week. It's that time of year - opening up the site this morning and seeing that the last posts in subs happened up to 10 hours ago tells you everything you need to know without going any further. Come on now, these days that are 67 and sunny just drive my passion for weather. I can’t be the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Seems I didn't miss much. LOL. Is my Easter Snowstorm still on track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Another stellar day. Getting used to this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 10 hours ago, paweather said: Seems I didn't miss much. LOL. Is my Easter Snowstorm still on track? verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter. Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm. We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates). If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the cannooks and blows up. Just not sure how that happens...Dunno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim 18z gfs shows one helluva cutoff aoa easter. Not sure I'm buyin, but man thats a BIG backdoor as NE would freeze while rest of country is above norm. We've seen it before, so I'm not saying its not likely, but its a doozy....if it verifies (which I'm suspect based on how far S the anomalous cold penetrates). If you loop it you see it just "drop in" from land of the cannooks and blows up. Just not sure how that happens...Dunno. GFS has been making early April a freeze out for several runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS has been making early April a freeze out for several runs in a row. Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? The 6z GFS says that March will go out like a Lion. Maybe we will have 1 more chance of seeing some snow flakes this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Haven't looked at models much at all for the past 2-3 weeks - is the GFS on an island with that depiction? Quite busy this week so have not looked much but when I last looked at the euro it did not go out that far yet. Gas was advertising teens for April 1 or 2 when I looked in the last day or 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS says that March will go out like a Lion. Maybe we will have 1 more chance of seeing some snow flakes this season? You just had to, didn't you??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Going to go out on a limb and say I see less than .1" of rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking. For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch. Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours. Pretty poor performance all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking. For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch. Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours. Pretty poor performance all around. And I thought they just upgraded the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: And I thought they just upgraded the GFS? The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 57 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking. For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch. Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours. Pretty poor performance all around. Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The upgraded GFS is still pumping out sh*t like this (it did completely disappear on the following runs), so obviously that cold bias is still there. I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version) The only model I feel “authorized” to criticize is the GFS since our tax dollars pay for it. And it’s been a disaster lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. Ha, yeah, the HRRR I looked at was ... wrong. Shocking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Might need high wind warnings Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Interestingly enough, current radar shows 2 large areas of rain advancing NE - one is missing us to our NW, the other is passing off to our east. Sort of a little dry tongue that might keep the more significant rain away from us, at least for the next few hours. It's a rather small gap between the bands...but it seems like you and I are poised to maximize the gap. Regardless, @canderson is going to exceed .1" today. Yes I noticed that as well and thought the same thing. However, things have been filling in pretty steadily since then and a couple decent downpours rolled through. Looks like a nice blob blowing up around the Baltimore area heading this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yes I noticed that as well and thought the same thing. However, things have been filling in pretty steadily since then and a couple decent downpours rolled through. Looks like a nice blob blowing up around the Baltimore area heading this way as well. It took all of 5 minutes after I made that post before the floodgates opened and it POURED. Oops. And yes...I'm watching that blob over the Baltimore area that is on a trajectory to dump on us if it holds together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. However, main the focus Friday will be on the potential of strong, gusty winds developing behind the front. Latest model guidance supports a classic high wind scenario for central Pa, with strong subsidence and steep low-level lapse rates in dry slot south of a deepening low pressure track. Forecast soundings indicate 40kt+ gusts are likely over much of the region Friday. The strongest isallobaric couplet and best chance of 50kt+ gusts appears targeted for northwest Pa. Given that this event is still over 48hrs out, have opted to highlight and threat in the HWO and wait for later guidance to guide any potential high wind watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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