Severe Event March 25th 2021

[DanLarsen34]

24 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

To be frank, it seemed like most of the models missed on this feature, not just the Euro. 

[Radtechwxman]

2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

I definitely think the weaker low was a big factor for MS. It strengthened very slow and not nearly as deep as it progged days ago. This led to weaker winds at sfc and not really backed with limited pressure falls. The early wave of storms to really messed with the wind field in MS. Subsidence behind it likely lead to the clearing and deeper mixing. This contributed to the veered sfc flow in addition to weaker sfc low. Just like last week, wind field was better across AL with S to SE winds. I think even if the EML wasn't as strong, MS storms may still have struggled to produce significant tornadoes with less directional shear in the low levels. 

[Amped]

Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled.   Some by a little and some by a lot.  Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area.

East coast snowstorms are the opposite,  They almost always end up NW of modeled.  Some by a little and some by a lot.

 

[TimB]

25 minutes ago, Amped said:

Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled.   Some by a little and some by a lot.  Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area.

East coast snowstorms are the opposite,  They almost always end up NW of modeled.  Some by a little and some by a lot.

 

Thanks for the PTSD, I’m still bitter about the 2/15-16 debacle. Especially considering it was followed by a storm that somehow had a major last-minute SE shift and we haven’t seen snow in Pittsburgh since.

[WhirlingWx]

Have there been any damage reports out of east-central AL from the same supercell that produced the Newnan tornado? We had some pretty bad signatures from that area last night too but haven't heard of any reports.

[Radtechwxman]

2 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

Have there been any damage reports out of east-central AL from the same supercell that produced the Newnan tornado? We had some pretty bad signatures from that area last night too but haven't heard of any reports.

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

[WhirlingWx]

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

Yeah, I was referring more to the Goldville - Roanoke, AL area where I recall we had another big velocity + debris sig and PDS tornado warning.

Newnan tornado does actually remind me quite a bit of the Jefferson City, MO tornado in 2019 just by several similarities in the situations. Unfortunately seems like there was a fatality in Newnan, from a person killed by a falling tree on their home, if I remember/heard correctly.

[CryHavoc]

48 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan 

I'd be surprised if it's a high end EF3 on first blush that they don't find one or two instances of lower bound EF4 damage.  Those preliminary damage surveys sometimes upgrade later especially with stronger tornadoes.

[Radtechwxman]

56 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Yeah, I was referring more to the Goldville - Roanoke, AL area where I recall we had another big velocity + debris sig and PDS tornado warning.

Newnan tornado does actually remind me quite a bit of the Jefferson City, MO tornado in 2019 just by several similarities in the situations. Unfortunately seems like there was a fatality in Newnan, from a person killed by a falling tree on their home, if I remember/heard correctly.

Yeah I think there was one death with that tornado. That outbreak definitely overperformed with several intense tornadoes esp at dusk or after dark. 

10 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I'd be surprised if it's a high end EF3 on first blush that they don't find one or two instances of lower bound EF4 damage.  Those preliminary damage surveys sometimes upgrade later especially with stronger tornadoes.

I was thinking the same thing. I saw a few pictures where houses were leveled and partially swept off foundation. Those were nicer homes to so guessing it would be properly anchored. 

[WhirlingWx]

The south B'ham tornado has been upped to EF3, and with a path length of 34 miles.

[WhirlingWx]

Newnan, GA upped to 170 mph EF4

[jrips27]

Here’s the tweet

 

[Indystorm]

I presume Newnan is our first EF-4 of the year then?

[WhirlingWx]

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

I presume Newnan is our first EF-4 of the year then?

Yep, first to be rated as such at least (we'll see what surveys find with the Greensboro - Brent/Centreville - Columbiana tornado)

[jpeters3]

Just now, TexMexWx said:

Yep, first to be rated as such at least (we'll see what surveys find with the Greensboro - Brent/Centreville - Columbiana tornado)

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

[WhirlingWx]

11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

I have almost no doubt that it reached at least EF4 intensity, but obviously, availability of damage indicators to rate it as such is something TBD. The only area I've seen so far that has that "look" of violent tornado damage is closer to Greensboro, but even then it looks more like contextual damage rather than primary, more clear-cut DIs. BMX posted in a tweet earlier that they won't survey much of that tornado's path (which I'm sure includes a lot of places we haven't seen yet) until the weekend, and so far only got to EF1 damage near the end of the tornado's life, west of Wilsonville iirc.

[WhirlingWx]

6 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The only area I've seen so far that has that "look" of violent tornado damage is closer to Greensboro, but even then it looks more like contextual damage rather than primary, more clear-cut DIs.

Here is the scene I'm referring to: 

https://mobile.twitter.com/GolemanChase/status/1375247349962973185

^ Granted, all the debris plastered across that field had to come from somewhere obviously, but I haven't seen pics of leveled houses well-built enough to earn an EF4+ rating (yet), which is my main point.

Jeff Piotrowski also surveyed some pretty high-end stuff earlier today as well, saw things like wooden planks and maybe even a feather just embedded deep into the ground by the tornado. Very heavy tree damage along a good chunk of the path, as well.

[SharonA]

8 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.

That house was built in 2003, if you're curious about timeframe for construction standards.  The houses on that road, and adjacent culdesacs in damage videos, are all from about that timeframe and a straight line to the school. The houses on that side of the road are cut into a hill with lots of trees left for backyards.  I'm pretty familiar with that area.

 

It's been a bummer of a day seeing chewed-up familiar places in the damage videos being posted.

 

 

 

[SluggerWx]

Man, that house with the yellow-green car at :37 and 2:15.  Even the half-basement wasn't safe.

This has my eye, too. I'd like to see some before pictures to understand what happened.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[CryHavoc]

I haven't seen it posted, but this is incredible.

OTOH I don't know if I should spread this -- last thing we need is a bunch of drones becoming missiles because their owners got too close to the parent funnel.  These are probably the most intense winds I've seen a drone withstand.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, CryHavoc said:

I haven't seen it posted, but this is incredible.

OTOH I don't know if I should spread this -- last thing we need is a bunch of drones becoming missiles because their owners got too close to the parent funnel.  These are probably the most intense winds I've seen a drone withstand.

Drones are not cheap either. That thing is probably toast. I have a Mavic drone and any water can cause permanent damage.

[CryHavoc]

1 hour ago, jpeters3 said:

I would be incredibly surprised if this one wasn't also an EF-4 (or 5).

I think an EF4 is all but guaranteed.  The question is whether it'll go to 5, really.  Some part of me doubts it -- I was almost certain the Bassfield tornado would have earned that rating, but the NWS seems extremely particular about what they consider EF5 damage.  Not a criticism, mind you, they know what they're doing, but I've been surprised at numerous storms that seemed to be a lock for EF5 not making the grade.

Hopefully a revision will be made at some point to include more damage parameters, especially for those that happen over open countryside.

[CryHavoc]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Drones are not cheap either. That thing is probably toast. I have a Mavic drone and any water can cause permanent damage.

Perhaps.  I've got a friend who's seriously into drones, and he makes some that are deceptively hardy -- actually built for wear and tear from the ground up.  They generally aren't as featured when it comes to camera movement/gimballing, but still.

[CryHavoc]

Impressive night-time shot of the Newnan EF4.

[jburns]

1 hour ago, CryHavoc said:

Impressive night-time shot of the Newnan EF4.

You’re right.  That was impressive.

[Chinook]

map produced by UStornadoes twitter feed, also most updated map by SPC

 

[CryHavoc]

5 hours ago, Chinook said:

map produced by UStornadoes twitter feed, also most updated map by SPC

 

6 deaths is indeed tragic.

But we've had high risk days now on consecutive weeks, one that verified with multiple violent tornadoes.

I have to think it would have been so much worse had the experts not been on top of the outbreaks -- especially on 3/25.  Even if a tornado doesn't go through a populated area, it only needs to cross a freeway at the wrong time to encounter dozens of cars if people are unawares.  Overall pretty remarkable that there have been so few deaths on such an active early tornado season.

[Radtechwxman]

Is there a rating yet on the Greensboro tornado that went through Brent and Centreville?

[ATDoel]

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Is there a rating yet on the Greensboro tornado that went through Brent and Centreville?

EF2 but still preliminary, they haven't surveyed the entire track yet.  I would guess today or tomorrow.

[DanLarsen34]

Sounds like the Brent-Centerville tornado will end up at EF-3 for a rating. We got so incredibly lucky that this tornado tracked where it did. I have no doubt that if this thing had occurred just a few miles further north, we would have seen EF-4 to EF-5 damage. 
 

As bad as last week was, it could have been even worse.