yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, ATDoel said: Where are you getting that? and here I was happy to simply not be in the HIGH Risk this go around... Its on the SPC page now -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html But you can get it here about 5 mins faster -- https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day? I don't know the level of the watch from history, but HSV has been hit at least 2x by F4s in the 1990s time frame [1989 and 1995]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Air Traffic Control said: I don't know the level of the watch from history, but HSV has been hit at least 2x by F4s in the 1990s time frame [1989 and 1995]. A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, ALweather said: Can't help but wonder how much of an effect all this cloud cover will have on the accuracy of this forecast. Last week it really seemed to keep things from forming and what did was pretty short-lived. The "high risk" from last week barely materialized. Once again, this system is exponentially more dynamic than last weeks. And last week did end up verifying in the high risk area. There is plenty of clearing in the main expected initiation zone. Already extreme amounts of low level instability. I hope this busts as much as the next guy but these concerns are being tossed because of the real time observational data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 James Spann is live. Birmingham Watch | News, Weather, Sports, Breaking News | WBMA (abc3340.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The Eutaw storm is trying to fire again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization. Yup that definitely could hinder things downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamabonners Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.” You're misunderstanding my point... I'm not writing it off. Quite the contrary... I'm saying that it is pretty normal for this area to have high amounts of tornados this time of year, many of them are very strong. It's become the new tornado alley. I'm simply saying, I'll be more surprised if we didn't have any tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: The Eutaw storm is trying to fire again Definitely tightening up over the past few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, vman722 said: Once again, this system is exponentially more dynamic than last weeks. And last week did end up verifying in the high risk area. There is plenty of clearing in the main expected initiation zone. Already extreme amounts of low level instability. I hope this busts as much as the next guy but these concerns are being tossed because of the real time observational data. I’m kinda curious why the storms aren’t spinning more. Srh of 400+ per mesoanalysis. Not surfaced based storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Strong couplet just west of Akron, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Couplet has really ramped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, bamabonners said: You're misunderstanding my point... I'm not writing it off. Quite the contrary... I'm saying that it is pretty normal for this area to have high amounts of tornados this time of year, many of them are very strong. It's become the new tornado alley. I'm guys in saying, I'm be more surprised if we didn't have any tornados. Ah, that makes more sense. I read it as “we have tornadoes all the time, so we’re used to it and that will help mitigate the effects if a violent tornado does run right through the middle of our city.” And I hope as much as the next guy that a violent tornado does NOT run through your city or any other town. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 things are going downhill in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: things are going downhill in a hurry ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment. This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization. Could be why the TOR risk was kept at 30%, just from a confidence standpoint. Again, *the SPC risk has no impact on the event itself* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, jpeters3 said: ? the storm near cypress; the meso has increased in intensity dramatically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: ? zooming in on GR, that's a mobile home area. very sensitive place for a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 whelp.....I'm directly in the bullseye of the only tornado warned storm right now, 50 miles away. Let's hope it isn't as long tracked as we think..... I may just get in my car and hit the interstate if this thing doesn't lift before getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 * Locations impacted include... Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell, Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 ............. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: zooming in on GR, that's a mobile home area. very sensitive place for a tornado went full BWER EDIT: ninja'd and by radar image ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 That supercell is very concerning... BWER, ZDR arc... The whole nine yards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Debris ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 TDS, it's down. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: * Locations impacted include... Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell, Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before. nah, that's the Mecedes Benz automotive plant. It's a huge complex, they even have a dedicated exit from the interstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Yup, first of the day now... wonder how long it'll go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, ATDoel said: whelp.....I'm directly in the bullseye of the only tornado warned storm right now, 50 miles away. Let's hope it isn't as long tracked as we think..... I may just get in my car and hit the interstate if this thing doesn't lift before getting here. Stay safe man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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