Cyclone-68 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? SPC protocol dictates that any watch box issued inside a High Risk, whether tornado or severe thunderstorm, area is automatically a PDS. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content. Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point. These things have no bearing on what will happen. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'm not exactly sure how you post the gif since the file is so large, but the 12z HRRR was about as bad you can get today. Appears to have a good grasp on the on-going scattered WAA convection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Rapid clearing across the high risk sector this morning. The gun is locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 First TW of the day near Macon, MS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Folks, that's as mean as it gets out of the Nam3k/NAMNEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The veering of the surface winds in behind the confluence axis in E MS does give me some pause about the early phase of the event. May take some time to respond to pressure falls associated with the deepening low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 SPC mesoanalysis have a Supercell Composite of close to 20 across parts of southern MS and another maximum in western AL. Pretty impressive and the visible satellite is showing a decent amount of clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: The veering of the surface winds in behind the confluence axis in E MS does give me some pause about the early phase of the event. May take some time to respond to pressure falls associated with the deepening low. I feel like some of this is just noise related to the ongoing effects of the scattered convection this morning? Looks like most obs in the true warm-sector are either southerly or slightly southeasterly. Something to watch, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Jesus, every little cell around the Macon area already has a meso.. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 First WF entering southern Tennessee . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The FV3 is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 It has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Still seems like a lot of cloud cover to burn through in Central Alabama right now. Can't help but wonder if we'll see a repeat of last week where the threat starts to really scale back the closer we get to it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: The FV3 is out to lunch what's it doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: It has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said: The FV3 is out to lunch How so? It pretty much shows the same thing the HRRR, ARW, NMMB, etc. do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, ALweather said: Still seems like a lot of cloud cover to burn through in Central Alabama right now. Can't help but wonder if we'll see a repeat of last week where the threat starts to really scale back the closer we get to it. main action is supposed to be well to our west, where it's clearing out. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw less action this week than last week in central Al. but the area to our west is virtually guaranteed to see a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The FV3 would be an unprecedented event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: The FV3 would be an unprecedented event. Worse than the event that shall not be named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 You know its going to be one of those days when the light rain showers are rotating broadly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, ALweather said: Still seems like a lot of cloud cover to burn through in Central Alabama right now. Can't help but wonder if we'll see a repeat of last week where the threat starts to really scale back the closer we get to it. I think something to keep in mind, is that the volatile environment that's expected to occur was forecasted to materialize with *full* cloud cover from pretty much every model I saw. The fact that there are still clouds at this time doesn't mean the threat is any lower than it was before. Of course, maybe at this time tomorrow we'll be talking about something that ended up limiting the threat (which I honestly hope happens). Also, as pointed out just above, the highest threat appears to be slightly north/west of Central Alabama anyways (which, again, doesn't mean the area is out of the woods right now). Even while mentioning that, there is always the possibility that the threat gets shifted a little south than what's currently forecasted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 CAMs don't really matter much at this point anyways, observations are what matter. And according to the SPC, the obs aren't downtrending to say the least 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 That is a concerning amount of strong helicity tracks from the 12z HREF. Some of those are very long tracked 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Seems like something interesting to note is a trend for less spacing and supercells present on 13z and 14z HRRR. Definitely something to monitor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I think something to keep in mind, is that the volatile environment that's expected to occur was forecasted to materialize with *full* cloud cover from pretty much every model I saw. The fact that there are still clouds at this time doesn't mean the threat is any lower than it was before. Of course, maybe at this time tomorrow we'll be talking about something that ended up limiting the threat (which I honestly hope happens). Also, as pointed out just above, the highest threat appears to be slightly north/west of Central Alabama anyways (which, again, doesn't mean the area is out of the woods right now). Even while mentioning that, there is always the possibility that the threat gets shifted a little south than what's currently forecasted. MRX just updated and said the WAA will be so strong that it will overcome the cool boundary layer. They also said they expect clearing later on after lunch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 The spatial and temporal size of the 90 tornado ingredients contour from the 9Z SREF has doubled since last night. I'm pretty sure we've seen larger in the past, but this is high risk worthy for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now