PowellVolz Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Not sure that matters with respect to Mississippi. This seems like an Alabama event again. I think the Plateau and ETn might be in a bad spot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 All it takes is one, and I’m afraid we’ve already had it. Hopefully the rest of the day doesn’t live up to the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Not sure that matters with respect to Mississippi. This seems like an Alabama event again. AL and N GA it looks like. Linear or blob mode over MS and NW AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Winds are finally starting to shift more south to southeasterly at the surface now according to the mesoanalysis surface map on SPC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Possible TDS just north of Pell City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: Winds are finally starting to shift more south to southeasterly at the surface now according to the mesoanalysis surface map on SPC. Definitely a noticeable difference in the last half hour or so, and pressure falls as well. Northeast MS is still primed if something discrete forms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The directional shear didn't seem as impressive to me as some of the bigger outbreaks. But this one has some steep mid level lapse rates and strong wind velocities to maybe offset the lack of directional shear. Outbreaks are very difficult to predict in terms of how many SUP cells or intense tors. One or two ingredients can be altered slightly which is the difference between St Patty's Day 2021 and April 2011. It’s still a bit early, but I agree with this, especially for the western part of the risk area, closer to the MS River. Sure, we have large CAPE and near-record lapse rates, but the wind field there is just about unidirectional now. I think that getting big CAPE and large hodographs in the Southeast is exceedingly rare. The writing was on the wall when midday SRH maps looked relatively modest, west of the MS/AL border. Farther east has been a different story. CAMs remain aggressive with the zone of messy storm modes breaking into semi-discrete storms. It could still happen, but we’ll see. The air mass is recovering over central MS, but low level shear would need to improve. Of course you had that one long track supercell go largely unimpeded on the SE fringe of convection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 ugh, 13k in Pell City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, jojo762 said: I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy... Agreed. Obviously could end up wrong when all is said and done but I don't remember when we've gone from a messy convective event to a high end outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ALC115-121-251945- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-210325T1945Z/ TALLADEGA AL-ST. CLAIR AL- 220 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES... AT 220 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERSIDE, OR NEAR PELL CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Definitely a noticeable difference in the last half hour or so, and pressure falls as well. Northeast MS is still primed if something discrete forms. Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this That's fair for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, nwohweather said: Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this This seems to be the biggest issue, effective SRH and SRH in general is displaced much more east than expected so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: I get the HRRR, etc. is still quite aggressive for later, but if I am being entirely honest most of this convection downstream of the main threat area is quite messy... Yeah I'm getting busty vibes further west. This is evolving more like 0z hrrr showed. The deepening low was key today and it hasn't really done that much. Hard to say if something major will evolve later or if this will be it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 While it's still in a crappy radar spot, it still looks like there might be a TOG heading towards Ragland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Meh I'm not totally sold here. SRH is not what it should be for this Surface winds are more backed up here, but low level flow is rather weak. I’m actually in NE MS “chasing” now, near the AL border. More like making a decision soon if I’m going to bail back to Oklahoma. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Gonna refer back to SPC issuing a high risk as a guarantee of a bust. Especially since it was Broyles who made the outlook 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'm starting to get skeptical about the threat for this afternoon. Seems like everything back in MS isn't doing much of anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UABweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 couplet looks violent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 It’ll be interesting to see what the SPC does in 30 minutes. I assume they keep the high for continuity purposes, but I really don’t think it’s warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Wow! I cant imagine Spann's predicament right now. His own home was hit yet he still has hours left before the outbreak winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, cheese007 said: Gonna refer back to SPC issuing a high risk as a guarantee of a bust. Especially since it was Broyles who made the outlook That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UABweather Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Bham NWS sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 While there's some pretty premature bust talk, cell NE of Pell City, AL getting ready to produce again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, ALweather said: That seems to be the trend lately. Is there a reason for this? Have they changed their parameters for issuing one or are they just more trigger happy than they once were? I also wonder how closely they use HREF probabilities as a guideline. They usually don’t deviate far from that. That popped a small tornado driven high risk at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 New TOR-W in MS issued. Looks to be going over Chunky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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