Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Watch the stuff near Livingston too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow classic, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Livingston cell showing some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, olafminesaw said: Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south? Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Yes Just now, CheeselandSkies said: Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow perfect, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today. Yes, I am always more concerned with a deepening low rather than an occluding one. The parameters today are just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamabonners Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 hours ago, TimB84 said: Sorry, I should have specified what I meant by “a tornado.” I’m not talking about garden variety EF-1’s, I mean something like an EF-4. I’m happy for you that the severity and paths of the tornadoes you get every year haven’t been catastrophic, and I hope we’ll still be able to say the same tomorrow. We have had several of those as well, both through town and the suburbs. We're not new to strong tornados around this area. I'm just hoping that we don't have any today... Or ever really.. but it's just part of living in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Not that anyone is keeping score anymore, but the latest HRRR run is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Quincy said: 50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real. Would not be surprised to see a 45% TOR area come out on the 1630 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said: Not that anyone is keeping score anymore, but the latest HRRR run is unreal Yeah the last 2 runs were a downtrend then 15z said nvm a downtrend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 PDS TOR Watch issued til 9pm EDT for AL/MS/TN/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Another cell trying to start up near Epes, AL. It's by itself too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, yoda said: PDS TOR Watch issued til 9pm EDT for AL/MS/TN/GA Maxed out TOR probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 PDS TOR Watch issued til 9pm EDT for AL/MS/TN/GA95/95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Not seeing all that much convection over the area and its clearing out. So is that one failure mode gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Central and Eastern Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch area. Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for long-track strong to violent tornadoes. A few of the storms may also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Not seeing all that much convection over the area and its clearing out. So is that one failure mode gone? Things are certainly taking a more serious turn. This day looks like a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 LOT of major cities/metro areas in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Central and Eastern Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch area. Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for long-track strong to violent tornadoes. A few of the storms may also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Last week’s was “a few intense tornadoes likely”...”several intense tornadoes expected” seems a bit more ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Gensini is just going ALL in, and I mean ALL in... I don't really know but he's definitely respected so I think it's pretty noteworthy. Though I don't seriously think SPC issues a 60% sig unless we're in the midst of Super Outbreak v3 in about 3 hours (which again, is unlikely *to be clear*). I would probably just shift the high risk a little S/SE honestly and keep the TOR risk at 30%... but I'm an amateur at best, so again, I really don't know. Anyone else can chime in on their thoughts on it (some have already). okay welp I imagine we're going 45% in a couple minutes EDIT: or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 5.5m people in 3 states under the highest level of watch the SPC has. "Ominous" doesn't begin to describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 HIGH risk expanded more eastward and SEward in 1630z update... HIGH now includes BMX metro ETA: TOR probs remain 30%, but were increased in size with respect to HIGH risk being increased in size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 The Cell near Epes is probably close to being tornadic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I'd be surprised to see a 45% tor at 1630Z, mainly because the high risk is a relatively confined area. Trying to squeeze another contour in there would be tough, unless the High risk is expanded quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, bamabonners said: We have had several of those as well, both through town and the suburbs. We're not new to strong tornados around this area. I'm just hoping that we don't have any today... Or ever really.. but it's just part of living in this area... I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: HIGH risk expanded more eastward and SEward in 1630z update... HIGH now includes BMX metro ETA: TOR probs remain 30%, but were increased in size with respect to HIGH risk being increased in size Where are you getting that? and here I was happy to simply not be in the HIGH Risk this go around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 And we begin BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1136 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Greene County in west central Alabama... Northern Hale County in west central Alabama... * Until 1230 PM CDT. * At 1135 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Boligee, or 10 miles southwest of Eutaw, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Eutaw, Moundville, Akron, Boligee, Allison, Walden Quarters, Wedgeworth, Evansville, Selden Lock And Dam, Moundville Airport, Phipps, Eutaw Municipal Airport, Mound State Park, Five Points Intersection, Elliots Creek, I 20 Rest Area Near Eutaw, Harper Hill and Havana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 bwer on the cell near birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Looks pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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